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[mpc347]

In light of LSACs release of applications for this cycle, here are HLS numbers for the past few years:

• 2013: 5485 applications
  2012: 5388 applications
  2011: 6335 applications

A big drop from 2011 to 2012 but 2012 from 2013 very slightly increased.

Guesses on how this cycle will turn out?

I'm honestly at a loss. Not to state the obvious but it seems like either there was a significant change in the applicant pool or Harvard changed their review process.

Or maybe they just decided that the Turkey Day surprise wasn't a surprise anymore and what's the fun in that?

[prr687]

I went complete 11/13, received a JS1 invite 11/24, and had my JS1 today (12/4).

My LSAT and GPA were both < median. Not a URM.

[musedreverie]

I went complete 11/13, received a JS1 invite 11/24, and had my JS1 today (12/4).

My LSAT and GPA were both < median. Not a URM.

You must have had some awesome WE/softs! Congrats on your JS1--now come and join our when-will-the-first-JS2s-be-given speculations!

[fellytone]

Went complete 10/28 and it's pretty disheartening to be passed on for each js1 wave my numbers are at/above median but k-jd. *sigh*

[KissMyAxe]

............

[musedreverie]

Went complete 10/28 and it's pretty disheartening to be passed on for each js1 wave my numbers are at/above median but k-jd. *sigh*

You do not walk alone in the valley of death my friend. Harvard's definitely my #1 choice but it's also dead silence on my end. I went complete a couple weeks before you, GPA's a bit below median but above the 25th and LSAT's at the 75th. I thought I had really solid softs (applied to the rest in November and gotten into 8 of the T14s so far in the month). However, I've got 6 years of full time work experience too, so not a k-jd here. Go figure. Sometimes life's not fair.

Anyone have any wild guess for why felly and I have been shunned?

Maybe because they've given out only 20% of all JS1s to give out yet? It may just take time for you guys--don't be disheartened, although I know how it feels.

[Auxilio]

Went complete 10/28 and it's pretty disheartening to be passed on for each js1 wave my numbers are at/above median but k-jd. *sigh*

You do not walk alone in the valley of death my friend. Harvard's definitely my #1 choice but it's also dead silence on my end. I went complete a couple weeks before you, GPA's a bit below median but above the 25th and LSAT's at the 75th. I thought I had really solid softs (applied to the rest in November and gotten into 8 of the T14s so far in the month). However, I've got 6 years of full time work experience too, so not a k-jd here. Go figure. Sometimes life's not fair.

Anyone have any wild guess for why felly and I have been shunned?

Maybe because they've given out only 20% of all JS1s to give out yet? It may just take time for you guys--don't be disheartened, although I know how it feels.

You can say that, but they must not give them out just randomly. There is an order they are given out in, and for the obvious methods of giving them out I feel I have been skipped. There are people with lower numbers and 2+ week later completion dates than me. If I could feel like I had an explanation why I have not gotten one yet I would not be worried. Bear in mind that while only 20% of people have gotten JS1, no where near 100% of applications are complete at this point.

Also the fact that they bypass you, even if they might very well come back, is not a reassuring sign.

[Fitz52917]

I got a JS1 today. Went complete in mid-November and above both medians

[pylon]

The complete dates of those receiving JS1s are creeping closer and closer to my complete date, and now I'm starting to get nervous.

To those who are still waiting: The cycle is just starting - whether you get accepted in December or May doesn't make a difference come the first week of classes.

[KissMyAxe]

.....

[pylon]

Gotta agree. Some readers probably are slower than others, but you gotta think after this long, there was something in there they just didn't like. And you can say that about May acceptances, but normally it looks like if you don't get the JS1 by a certain time after your complete date, it just ain't happening. Also, don't forget, plenty of June and September takers haven't applied yet and we're soon going to have the December takers joining us.

I agree it's obviously not good news, but it's definitely not the end of the world. HLS has a really active waitlist, and there are people who get onto the waitlist without JS1s, get a JS1 while on the waitlist, and then get accepted (see last year's applicant thread). Also, of people in the spreadsheet who got interviews from last cycle (~150), 18 of them waited more than 30 days after going complete.

Again, it's obviously not great - those aren't good odds. But it does happen.

[DetroitRed]

Went complete 10/28 and it's pretty disheartening to be passed on for each js1 wave my numbers are at/above median but k-jd. *sigh*

You do not walk alone in the valley of death my friend. Harvard's definitely my #1 choice but it's also dead silence on my end. I went complete a couple weeks before you, GPA's a bit below median but above the 25th and LSAT's at the 75th. I thought I had really solid softs (applied to the rest in November and gotten into 8 of the T14s so far in the month). However, I've got 6 years of full time work experience too, so not a k-jd here. Go figure. Sometimes life's not fair.

Anyone have any wild guess for why felly and I have been shunned?

Only 6 T14s have sent decisions so far...

ETA: RD decisions, that is

[sneakyleo]

---

[Winston1984]

Went complete 10/28 and it's pretty disheartening to be passed on for each js1 wave my numbers are at/above median but k-jd. *sigh*

You do not walk alone in the valley of death my friend. Harvard's definitely my #1 choice but it's also dead silence on my end. I went complete a couple weeks before you, GPA's a bit below median but above the 25th and LSAT's at the 75th. I thought I had really solid softs (applied to the rest in November and gotten into 8 of the T14s so far in the month). However, I've got 6 years of full time work experience too, so not a k-jd here. Go figure. Sometimes life's not fair.

Anyone have any wild guess for why felly and I have been shunned?

Only 6 T14s have sent decisions so far...

ETA: RD decisions, that is

[thisone2014]

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[foles]

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[RSN]

There's been a lot of speculation here that H was responding to a change in the applicant pool when they decided not to do the Turkey Day Surprise, but I've come to think they knew from the start that they would be moving a bit slower this year - based on the fact that the complete emails say you will hear anytime from December to May (not November), and based on the fact that the earliest interviewees were also told that it was early in the cycle and would be a while before they heard back (so that's not something they decided to start telling people a few weeks into interviewing).

Of course, that theory would be weakened if last year's complete emails also said "December to May."

Per Spivey,

Highest LSAT Number of Applicants Pct Chg YTD
170–174 945 -13.5%
175–180 272 -19.8%

http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/first- ... ion-cycle/

Maybe they saw the early data from the applicant pool back in September and decided to slow down a bit in the hopes the pool would improve?

Here's last year for comparison. If I'm reading this right, this is striking, especially among the highest tier (although the missing total number of apps makes it difficult to fully compare):

High LSAT Pct Chg YTD
170–174 -4.6%
175–180 12.1%

http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/2014-l ... rsus-2013/

[foles]

.

[RSN]

There's been a lot of speculation here that H was responding to a change in the applicant pool when they decided not to do the Turkey Day Surprise, but I've come to think they knew from the start that they would be moving a bit slower this year - based on the fact that the complete emails say you will hear anytime from December to May (not November), and based on the fact that the earliest interviewees were also told that it was early in the cycle and would be a while before they heard back (so that's not something they decided to start telling people a few weeks into interviewing).

Of course, that theory would be weakened if last year's complete emails also said "December to May."

Per Spivey,

Highest LSAT Number of Applicants Pct Chg YTD
170–174 945 -13.5%
175–180 272 -19.8%

http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/first- ... ion-cycle/

Maybe they saw the early data from the applicant pool back in September and decided to slow down a bit in the hopes the pool would improve?

Here's last year for comparison. If I'm reading this right, this is striking, especially among the highest tier (although the missing total number of apps makes it difficult to fully compare):

High LSAT Pct Chg YTD
170–174 -4.6%
175–180 12.1%

http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/2014-l ... rsus-2013/

Well it says on this year's data that this time last year (try saying that 3 times fast!), they had 23% of the total applicants. If my math is correct, working back from the final data last year (http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/final- ... 1415-data/ ) that's:

Highest LSAT Number of Applicants Pct Chg YTD
170–174 505 -13.5%
175–180 136 -19.8%

...which would mean there are actually more 170+ applicants this year unless 170+ applicant apply a lot earlier than everyone else or something. I'm starting to confuse myself.

Not sure that math is right since there's probably a strong skew factor based on the higher likelihood of high scorers to apply earlier (which I'm hypothesizing but I think is probably accurate to a certain extent).

Actually, I'm realizing we can just use the percent drops to figure out what the total was last year (although note that this year's data is a week earlier in the cycle):

High LSAT Num. %
170–174 1092 -4.6%
175–180 339 12.1%

This is the full extent of my math skills.

[RSN]

To summarize for clarity, that's:

2015 Applicants (as of 11/28/14):
170-174: 945
175-180: 272

2014 Applicants (as of 12/6/13):
170-174: 1092 (calculated, may not be accurate)
175-180: 339 (calculated, may not be accurate)

To get back to the original topic, it seems odd that that level of a drop, significant as it is, would be enough for HLS to reevaluate their admissions procedures. I think the explanation that the applicant pool is smaller and less qualified is probably unlikely to be the primary reason for the new schedule this year.

[accessislife]

Wow - thanks for these calculations!

[Kobaine51]

*

[pylon]

We're only 8 days back of the first reported JS2 from last cycle, which is small enough for me to think it's not any systematic change in admissions evaluations but just human delay (readers are slow, JS is busy, office secret santa, etc).

Also I have a gut feeling we'll see a wave of JS2s today.

[foles]

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[pylon]

Putting that in the context of the original argument, since 170+ test takers seem to apply significantly earlier than the rest of the pool, Harvard may have had a pretty clear picture early on. I'm not sure how tight they've been on the 173 median recently, but it should be at least a little harder to hold it this year- hence the delay to hope for a lot more high scoring applicants. Or that's just my optimism talking again.

I may have missed it, but is this based on some sort of evidence? Or an assumption? I don't disagree, but am curious and I feel like it's not as skewed as one would think.

ETA: I'm an idiot - it's right above me.