16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

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KevinP
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16.9% Decrease In October Test Takers(Detailed Stats Inside)

Postby KevinP » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:17 pm

That is all. Carry on.
http://www.lsac.org/LSACResources/Data/ ... stered.asp

October test takers decreased by 16.9%.
December test takers decreased by 14.9%.
February test takers decreased by 13.7%.
June 2012 test takers decreased by 5.9%.

Decrease in applicants, contrary to common assumption, are fueled a lot more from the top scorers than from the bottom. The only exception is the 175+ (noticeably smaller decline than the other groups but that is to be expected since that group experienced a huge decline last year. The average decrease over the last 2 years for the 175+ will show that they decreased proportionately more than the overall decline.
http://lsatblog.blogspot.com/2012/04/la ... mbers.html

Click on the actual LSAC link to see a breakdown of applicants by LSAT score.

Here is a summary of law school applicants by highest LSAT score.
Image
Last edited by KevinP on Fri Jul 20, 2012 11:08 pm, edited 21 times in total.

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Tom Joad
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Tom Joad » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:21 pm

Praise Young Based God.

law2015
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby law2015 » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:25 pm

This might be an epic cycle!

KaleidoscopeEyes
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby KaleidoscopeEyes » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:25 pm

Wow. Good news for everybody applying. That's the lowest October Test Count since 2000-2001.

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Hawkeye Pierce
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Hawkeye Pierce » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:26 pm

Holy shit, this is great news.

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ggibelli
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby ggibelli » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:27 pm

very nice. i excite

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FryBreadPower
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby FryBreadPower » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:28 pm

Probably the most n00b question I've ever asked. And yes, I realize I could conduct a lengthy search to discover the answer to this question; but because I'm lazy at the moment: why is this awesome?

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noleknight16
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby noleknight16 » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:32 pm

FryBreadPower wrote:Probably the most n00b question I've ever asked. And yes, I realize I could conduct a lengthy search to discover the answer to this question; but because I'm lazy at the moment: why is this awesome?


Potentially less competition for schools you want to get into so you got a better shot.

Potentially.

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Strange
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Strange » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:33 pm

8)

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KevinP
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby KevinP » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:38 pm

I'm very curious as to how this cycle will play out for schools which already cut their incoming class size last cycle to offset the drop in applicants.

iamrobk
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby iamrobk » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:39 pm

Awesome news if it makes the medians go down and/or makes it generally easier to get in places.

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minnbills
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby minnbills » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:41 pm

Hoping that this turns out well. I have a suspicion people might be taking the test fewer times because of the cost though, along with the bad press.

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Strange
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Strange » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:42 pm

That chart is crazy. There havent been drops this big since the mid-90s and not through an extended period like we've had since Oct 2010

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Hawkeye Pierce
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Hawkeye Pierce » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:43 pm

This is making me more optimistic for the cycle... my hopes better not get crushed lol

Englander742
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Englander742 » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:44 pm

minnbills wrote:Hoping that this turns out well. I have a suspicion people might be taking the test fewer times because of the cost though, along with the bad press.


Fewer retakes is also a positive, given the vast percentage of retakers who score higher than the 1st time. It's not as good as a smaller applicant pool, but would still help.

iamrobk
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby iamrobk » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:44 pm

minnbills wrote:Hoping that this turns out well. I have a suspicion people might be taking the test fewer times because of the cost though, along with the bad press.

Either way, gonna make those top scores look even more attractive to schools.

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S-IV
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby S-IV » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:45 pm

Guys, this isn't just great for this cycle (although I'm super pumped), it's great for our eventual employment prospects too. Hopefully it doesn't rise again before we're all trying to find a freakin job. Woo!

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Hawkeye Pierce
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Hawkeye Pierce » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:46 pm

I did a really sloppy analysis that makes way too many assumptions, but it's still fun to look at:

78,900 applicants last year, decreased 9.9% from the year previous.
~19% drop in June takers this year, and 16.9% drop in October takers this year.

Let's assume another ~10% drop in applicants. That brings us to roughly 70,000 applicants.

170 is the top 2.5% of score takers, so if we apply the same bands to the applicants, then 1750 applicants have a 170+.

Apply the same logic to people with a 173+ (99th percentile), and we come to 700 candidates.

Take out splitters, and that 700 number drops significantly for applicants to the T6 schools.

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TrojanHopeful
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby TrojanHopeful » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:53 pm

Image

slacker
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby slacker » Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:59 pm

Please continue into the next cycle when I will actually be applying. Or at least don't start having the huge increases again.

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Kring345
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Kring345 » Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:17 pm

Hawkeye Pierce wrote:I did a really sloppy analysis that makes way too many assumptions, but it's still fun to look at:

78,900 applicants last year, decreased 9.9% from the year previous.
~19% drop in June takers this year, and 16.9% drop in October takers this year.

Let's assume another ~10% drop in applicants. That brings us to roughly 70,000 applicants.

170 is the top 2.5% of score takers, so if we apply the same bands to the applicants, then 1750 applicants have a 170+.

Apply the same logic to people with a 173+ (99th percentile), and we come to 700 candidates.

Take out splitters, and that 700 number drops significantly for applicants to the T6 schools.

More redickulous analysis:

500, 200, 200, 400, 200, 400 students at HYSCCN respectively. That's a total of 1900. Because I was too lazy to look beyond the out of date stats given on the LSN homepage, let's say 1800-2000.

CCN total students = 1000
CCN 25% LSAT = 170
CCN admits above 25% LSAT = 750 obviously

Total applicants with 169+ = 1750 applicants ish
Of those 1750 applicants, approx 900 will be attending HYS

Applicants left for CCN with 170+ LSAT = 750 to fill 750 slots, many of whom are splitters with 0 chance.
Therefore, everyone with 170+ will be autoadmit to CCN
Therefore, I am depressed because I have a 168... :cry:

PS, dont trust my numbers/analysis at all
Last edited by Kring345 on Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Hawkeye Pierce
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Hawkeye Pierce » Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:23 pm

Hahaha yeah. This is just off the wall fantasizing.

If that were the case, then all the schools below T6 would have median LSATs in the mid-high 160s LOL

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Kring345
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Kring345 » Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:24 pm

Fo' sho. But somethings gotta give somewhere. Likely it'll be a combo of class size and medians.

tennisking88
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby tennisking88 » Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:34 pm

I am terrified at the prospect of getting my hopes up

Mal Reynolds
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Re: 16.9% Drop in October Test Takers

Postby Mal Reynolds » Fri Nov 04, 2011 7:36 pm

TrojanHopeful wrote:Image


+1 For Mr. Burns.




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