touche wrote:let/them/eat/cake wrote:
i'm hoping that is not true. that seems like a pretty steep drop-off. the class of '05 placed a third in the NLJ 250, and they would have done their OCI in 03, which wasn't really a boom economy. (it went up to like 40+ percent in the recent 'boom' years, if i'm not mistaken). so, assuming this ship rights itself, i don't see why incoming 0L's would figure they'd have to assume a number like 15%....
perhaps I'm missing something, or we're operating under a different set of assumptions.
I don't know if you've heard this, but the economy is going through some tough times right now. Nothing huge, only the largest unemployment rate in quarter of a century. It's going to take some time for the ship to right itself, as you call it, but given the large number of deferred and laid off associates, it's probably a sound idea to figure out how long it will take for the ship to right itself. Where 0Ls are going to be applying for jobs a year down the road, do you really think that firms will be back to their normal hiring mode by then? Keep in mind that many of the '09ers aren't even going to be starting work until 2010 and in some cases 2011, and keep in mind that economic recessions last 2-3 years and we're still in year 1.
Don't have the data on hand right now, but one poster did the research and showed that firms in boom years went relatively deeper into lower ranked schools instead of taking the kids at the bottom at top ranked ones. Most likely this is because they believe that the median student at say Fordham will be a better lawyer than the bottom 25th percentile kid at CLS/NYU. No one knows how OCI will run this coming fall, but if I had to guess, I'd say that they would continue this trend but hire less all across the board. That means the top 25th percentile kid at Fordham might still have just as good of a shot as the kid at median at NYU/CLS.