Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

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mudiverse
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Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby mudiverse » Sat Jan 03, 2015 11:59 am

We have seen from recently news publications that 2014 and 2013 showed record lows on LSAT takers and therefore law school applicants overall. http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2014/10/24/number-of-lsat-takers-continues-to-slide/. Is there any evidence to show that this will continue to drop in the upcoming years?

What I'm curious about is whether waiting a year or two could potentially raise chances for those without currently competitive numbers. Is there a common consensus on this?

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2014
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby 2014 » Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:02 pm

This discussion has come up basically quarterly for years now and the consensus always seems to be that it has bottomed out and yet with one February exception numbers continue to fall so who knows. If I were betting I'd say June will be up this year but who knows?

Waiting is always a good option if you use the time to build a stronger application. If you are just waiting idle in hopes of schools dropping standards I don't think it's likely to be successful.

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pylon
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby pylon » Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:08 pm

2014 wrote:Waiting is always a good option if you use the time to build a stronger application. If you are just waiting idle in hopes of schools dropping standards I don't think it's likely to be successful.

Agreed. Improving your LSAT while waiting to have more competitive numbers will get you farther than waiting for schools to drop standards.

mudiverse
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby mudiverse » Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:11 pm

2014 wrote:Waiting is always a good option if you use the time to build a stronger application. If you are just waiting idle in hopes of schools dropping standards I don't think it's likely to be successful.


Definitely no question of this. Is there research available, however, of when the law school market will balance out? Dead obvious from the numbers listed here that law industry is currently is/has been over saturated, but with the economy coming backs this year there may be a corresponding bounce-back of law school applicants.

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Rigo
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby Rigo » Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:13 pm

Echoing the advice to actively work to change your own stats than passively wait for the admissions environment to change.

The total # of administrations is going to be sub-100,000 this year & applications are way down after an uptick last last among high scorers.
After last February, "experts" said we hit bottom and were starting to rebound. NOPE.
So who knows what next year will look like.

At a certain point, you've either got to shit or get off the pot.

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pylon
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby pylon » Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:14 pm

I guess we'll have more information once the numbers for the December LSAT are released, but right now if the year ended there would be a larger percentage drop in LSAT takers than the drop from last year. I would think it has to bottom out at some point, but it doesn't look like that will happen soon.

As for research that's out there that gives insight into the trend, I don't know of any sorry. Perhaps try asking Spivey? I doubt anyone will have more than hunches however, as there are so many variables at play.

BillsFan9907
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby BillsFan9907 » Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:57 pm

Has any T-14 school even lost 2 lsat points on its median?

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Rigo
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby Rigo » Sat Jan 03, 2015 1:00 pm

Seoulless wrote:Has any T-14 school even lost 2 lsat points on its median?

From the height of applications in 2010, several.

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gamerish
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peger
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby peger » Sat Jan 03, 2015 2:03 pm

mudiverse wrote:
2014 wrote:Waiting is always a good option if you use the time to build a stronger application. If you are just waiting idle in hopes of schools dropping standards I don't think it's likely to be successful.


Definitely no question of this. Is there research available, however, of when the law school market will balance out? Dead obvious from the numbers listed here that law industry is currently is/has been over saturated, but with the economy coming backs this year there may be a corresponding bounce-back of law school applicants.


I would imagine the economy doing well is a net negative for application numbers. People in their 20s tend to apply to law school in greater numbers when the economy is in the toilet and all other employment options look bleak, hence the height of applications occurring when the recession was at its worst.

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Rigo
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby Rigo » Sat Jan 03, 2015 2:17 pm

peger wrote:I would imagine the economy doing well is a net negative for application numbers. People in their 20s tend to apply to law school in greater numbers when the economy is in the toilet and all other employment options look bleak, hence the height of applications occurring when the recession was at its worst.

This is true.
Plus the legal economy is by and large still in the toilet, and more and more 0L's are aware of that fact as LST and scamblogs have caught on.
Everybody seems to know a struggling TTT grad nowadays, too.

Nomo
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby Nomo » Sat Jan 03, 2015 2:18 pm

I think all signs point to a continued decline.

There still aren't anywhere near enough jobs for all the law school graduates. And the vast majority of the jobs aren't paying enough to make law school a viable financial option. Most of the jobs that do pay enough aren't exactly fun. Every year more people are aware of these facts.

At the same time, recent college graduates seem to have more employment opportunities than they did a few years back - and thus less reason to go to law school. And the number of college graduates per year seems to have leveled off.

Moneytrees
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby Moneytrees » Sat Jan 03, 2015 6:57 pm

Are the December LSAT numbers not out yet?

Also interesting to note is that medians did not drop as much as TLS expected last cycle. Many people predicted -2 drops for some T14 and thought that Vanderbilt/UCLA/UT/USC would suffer declines as well. Most schools held their medians, and even increased them slightly.

Maybe this year is the year that we see some more median movement? At some point, you have to imagine that even T14 schools will have to take a hit. There are only so many 167+ LSAT scores to go around.

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Rigo
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby Rigo » Sat Jan 03, 2015 7:09 pm

Moneytrees wrote:Are the December LSAT numbers not out yet?

Unfortunately not. I suspect they'll update their chart early next week.
Moneytrees wrote:Also interesting to note is that medians did not drop as much as TLS expected last cycle. Many people predicted -2 drops for some T14 and thought that Vanderbilt/UCLA/UT/USC would suffer declines as well. Most schools held their medians, and even increased them slightly.
Maybe this year is the year that we see some more median movement? At some point, you have to imagine that even T14 schools will have to take a hit. There are only so many 167+ LSAT scores to go around.

I suspect that last year was an anomaly in that there was an uptick in high scorers. This year people who 165+'d are drastically down. Read into it what you will.

BillsFan9907
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby BillsFan9907 » Sat Jan 03, 2015 7:30 pm

Dirigo wrote:
Seoulless wrote:Has any T-14 school even lost 2 lsat points on its median?

From the height of applications in 2010, several.


Where are you seeing this? I cannot find the TLS page that has historical medians?

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Rigo
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby Rigo » Sat Jan 03, 2015 7:47 pm

Seoulless wrote:
Dirigo wrote:
Seoulless wrote:Has any T-14 school even lost 2 lsat points on its median?

From the height of applications in 2010, several.

Where are you seeing this? I cannot find the TLS page that has historical medians?

Since 2011

Georgetown -3

Northwestern -2
NYU -2

Penn -1
UVA -1
Chicago -1
Cornell -1
Duke -1
Michigan -1

Berkeley -0
Yale -0
Harvard -0
Columbia -0

Stanford +2

Source: http://www.abarequireddisclosures.org

Moneytrees
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby Moneytrees » Sat Jan 03, 2015 7:50 pm

Outside of the T14, Vanderbilt is also -2. It held what now seems like an insane 169 median until 2012.

BillsFan9907
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby BillsFan9907 » Sat Jan 03, 2015 8:23 pm

Wow. Georgetown got demolished. I suspect this has to be due to it's huge class size. I want to see what happens to Harvard this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they either cut class size, dropped GPA median, or dropped to 172.

mudiverse
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby mudiverse » Sat Jan 03, 2015 8:48 pm

Really interesting how Stanford is the only one who went up +2. Agreed GULC gets the short end of the stick, again!

Thanks for the numbers Dirigo - your posts are a wealth of knowledge. I am going to keep my eye out for this years medians.

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Clemenceau
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby Clemenceau » Sat Jan 03, 2015 8:49 pm

Gtowns 170 median was particularly mind bending when you consider their 500+ class sizes and scholly stinginess

Never underestimate lay prestige

Edit: I guess they were at 170 in 2012. They were 171 not too long ago though

Moneytrees
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby Moneytrees » Sat Jan 03, 2015 9:24 pm

Whenever I discuss the law schools I'm targeting with people outside of the legal field, they tend to bring up Georgetown and how great it would be to go to school in DC. It probably has more lay prestige than most of the schools outside of the top 6 or 7.

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15 styx
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby 15 styx » Sat Jan 03, 2015 10:38 pm

I think they will decrease. The one positive (law firm jobs are back on track) may not be enough to overcome all the negatives such as the outrageously high tuition cost and too many newly minted JDs for the market.

The LSAT application market can go up but the key is to bow out if your score does not open doors at a respectable tier 1. Plus, accept no deal nowhere without a meaty discount.

thatsnotmyname
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby thatsnotmyname » Sat Jan 03, 2015 11:08 pm

Moneytrees wrote:Whenever I discuss the law schools I'm targeting with people outside of the legal field, they tend to bring up Georgetown and how great it would be to go to school in DC. It probably has more lay prestige than most of the schools outside of the top 6 or 7.


Georgetown probably has more lay prestige than CCN also. I feel like definitely way more lay prestige than Chicago and NYU. I feel like outside of YHS, the schools in the T14 with most lay prestige would probably be Duke and Georgetown.

BillsFan9907
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Re: Will the number of LSAT takers continue to decrease?

Postby BillsFan9907 » Sat Jan 03, 2015 11:21 pm

thatsnotmyname wrote:
Moneytrees wrote:Whenever I discuss the law schools I'm targeting with people outside of the legal field, they tend to bring up Georgetown and how great it would be to go to school in DC. It probably has more lay prestige than most of the schools outside of the top 6 or 7.


Georgetown probably has more lay prestige than CCN also. I feel like definitely way more lay prestige than Chicago and NYU. I feel like outside of YHS, the schools in the T14 with most lay prestige would probably be Duke and Georgetown.


Why Duke? Just because of name recognition derived from basketball?

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gamerish
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