Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

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brokendowncar
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Law School Calculator

Postby brokendowncar » Mon Jan 07, 2008 12:05 pm

180 LSAT for melena. I think low to mid three GPA.

Miss Rhea
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Postby Miss Rhea » Wed Jan 09, 2008 2:33 am

I think I willl go cry now :(

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Haribo
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Postby Haribo » Wed Jan 09, 2008 3:08 am

LSAT = 180, GPA = 3.68. Ok, but not great. Just to make myself feel e-peeny, it was a double engineering major from MIT. :)

(I don't think I'm applying to law schools this year though - I got a really cool opportunity to have part of a round the world trip financed so I'm doing that instead.)

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Splitt3r
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby Splitt3r » Sun Jan 20, 2008 5:07 pm

OP, have you worked on this anymore in terms of improving the algorithm?

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kill the headlights
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby kill the headlights » Mon Jan 21, 2008 12:42 am

I think LSAC's law school description page is better. That site gives me about a 50/50 chance at one of my schools, which is the record on the site. But my chances are 15%.

Where are you getting the numbers from, did you say LSN?

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kill the headlights
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby kill the headlights » Mon Jan 21, 2008 12:42 am

Is it last year's complete data from LSN? Is that how they derive their Law School Calculator?

Go Bears
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby Go Bears » Mon Jan 21, 2008 1:58 pm

This makes me even more surprised to have been outright rejected from Georgetown.

I got a 7-19 (26 percent). That isn't great, but with nearly a decade of work experience, a published book, etc., you'd think that would have at least gotten me on the waitlist.

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nipplehead
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby nipplehead » Mon Jan 21, 2008 3:03 pm

Go Bears wrote:This makes me even more surprised to have been outright rejected from Georgetown.

I got a 7-19 (26 percent). That isn't great, but with nearly a decade of work experience, a published book, etc., you'd think that would have at least gotten me on the waitlist.


don't dwell on it, Bears!

their loss.

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Sparr0w
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby Sparr0w » Mon Jan 21, 2008 4:42 pm

3.4/173 - 10% at Columbia. This makes me really depressed.

but, if i get 178, im at 50%. off to studying I go now.

bennyblanco
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby bennyblanco » Mon Jan 21, 2008 5:33 pm

For those of you who thought my numbers (3.75/176) made me a sure thing at Harvard...

I give you a calculated 57% probability of acceptance. On the plus side, very few "rejected w/betters."

Hopefully, they'll take into consideration where that 3.75 came from at Y/S, too.

zeezoo
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby zeezoo » Mon Jan 21, 2008 9:34 pm

Benny: Your odds are much greater than 57% imo.

GO Bears: From what I have seen, it seems like schools love 2-5 years work experience, but at a certain point they begin to question your decision to go to law school only after 10 years WE. Moreover, I would suspect that Georgetown has a lot more older applicants applying than most schools because of its location in DC; too many people just get frustrated trying to grind up the ranks and after a decade they think maybe law school will be their golden ticket. This would also explain George Mason denying an older applicant on this board with good numbers, which was discussed at length in the Acceptance/Denials section.

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nahumya
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby nahumya » Mon Jan 21, 2008 9:45 pm

great website..
using LSN stats has its own drawback, though:

175/3.9

HLS chances: 69%
should be closer to 90%


The Yale stats are scary.

bennyblanco
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby bennyblanco » Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:29 pm

"HLS chances: 69%
should be closer to 90%"


I hope you're right. We've got similar numbers. I'd be interested to see how things work out for you, assuming you applied.

The 3.75 is from the U of C, so I'm banking on a little bit in the way of deferrence.

The Y/S numbers are frightening indeed. Oh well. At least there's a remarkable spike in probability after that (according to the calculator, Columbia on down are +80something).


Oh, and thanks for the vote of confidence zeezoo. :)

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palm23
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby palm23 » Sat May 17, 2008 11:50 am

OK, so I took a lot of your suggestions, and did some other things. The updated version (same url - http://www.hourumd.com/ ) has the following changes:

1. Updated with new data from LSN (basically the cycle coming to an end means another 25,000 data points or so.)
2. No more "chances" column until I create a better algorithm for that.
3. You can now search ranges (just type "172-179" or whatever, same for GPA.)
4. You can specify your URM settings. It will save your preference over multiple searches (the default is "no," also... that's what it always did in the past.)

Of course, any more suggestions would be appreciated.

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edcrane
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby edcrane » Sat May 17, 2008 12:07 pm

Great site that confirms what I thought--I underperformed to a degree that suggests I fucked something up on my application.

rui
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby rui » Sat May 17, 2008 1:30 pm

///
Last edited by rui on Sun Apr 25, 2010 1:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

mcds
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby mcds » Sat May 17, 2008 2:04 pm

edcrane wrote:Great site that confirms what I thought--I underperformed to a degree that suggests I fucked something up on my application.


Great site. You what would be even more helpful, is if when people filled in LSN they could keep some of their demographics hidden (so they wouldn't be easier to pick out) but still available for data keeping.

Because URM can mean a lot of different things, also it would help with fudged numbers.

vvv4
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby vvv4 » Sat May 17, 2008 3:41 pm

I don't know how helpful this is. The numbers fluctuate up and down as I increase the LSAT score. For me, having a 177 hurts a ton, while having a 174 makes everything pretty nice.

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totalidiot
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby totalidiot » Sat May 17, 2008 5:26 pm

oh Yale, how unfair you are

bonesinger
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby bonesinger » Sat May 17, 2008 6:03 pm

i have a 10% chance to get into Yale and 0% for harvard and stanford O_O

2.9-3.1
170-180

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RVP11
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby RVP11 » Sat May 17, 2008 6:51 pm

I don't think this calculator accounts for YP at all.

YP waitlists seem to count as "not admitted". Sometimes numbers that are practically auto-admit result in like a 50% chance at certain schools. For example, 3.6/173 comes up as not much over 50% chance at Penn.

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palm23
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby palm23 » Sat May 17, 2008 8:42 pm

jsporter wrote:I don't think this calculator accounts for YP at all.

YP waitlists seem to count as "not admitted". Sometimes numbers that are practically auto-admit result in like a 50% chance at certain schools. For example, 3.6/173 comes up as not much over 50% chance at Penn.

Good point. I think I will make an option to Include/Exclude waitlists.

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edcrane
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby edcrane » Sat May 17, 2008 11:41 pm

vvv4 wrote:I don't know how helpful this is. The numbers fluctuate up and down as I increase the LSAT score. For me, having a 177 hurts a ton, while having a 174 makes everything pretty nice.


Hmm that's weird. Is the calculator only taking into account exact matches? It should probably be taking into account max percentage chance based on less than or equal stats (e.g., if 50% of 172/3.5s get in to Columbia, it should not report less than 50% odds of getting in for a 175/3.5) or else there should be some sort of separate column for this.

vvv4
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby vvv4 » Sun May 18, 2008 4:00 am

edcrane wrote:
vvv4 wrote:I don't know how helpful this is. The numbers fluctuate up and down as I increase the LSAT score. For me, having a 177 hurts a ton, while having a 174 makes everything pretty nice.


Hmm that's weird. Is the calculator only taking into account exact matches? It should probably be taking into account max percentage chance based on less than or equal stats (e.g., if 50% of 172/3.5s get in to Columbia, it should not report less than 50% odds of getting in for a 175/3.5) or else there should be some sort of separate column for this.

Don't know. If I enter just 174, I have something like an 80% of a chance at UVa. If I enter 177, that drops down to like 33%. If I enter 174-179, it goes to about 15%. I think a likely explanation, since it is based on the data from LSN, is that these results are due to the low amount of splitter information on LSN. I guess it just happens to be that a few really high LSATers got waitlisted/rejected while those 174ish people happened to get in (of course, it doesn't appear to distinguish between instate and OOS so that could cause a problem there).

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palm23
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby palm23 » Sun May 18, 2008 11:45 am

OK yeah sorry, the "Rejected with Better" and "Accepted with Worse" stopped working properly when I did that most recent update. They're fixed now.

Anyway, the idea is to use all three together - there isn't any aggregate chances column anymore (but I will bring it back semi-soon.)

So a search of (174,3.2) will search a small range to generate the "Record" column (173-175 and 3.16 to 3.24.) The record for UVA for people in this range is 64.29%. Only 13.68% got rejected with better stats. Now, there are much less around 177 (with the same GPA.) Instead of 14 applicants, it only has 3, and the record drops to 33.33%. But only 10% of the better applicants (5/50) are rejected at that point. Also, a greater percentage of worse applicants get in.




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