I don't feel like I contribute too much around here, and I had some time on my hands today, so I started crunching some numbers to see about quantifying the importance of LSAT and GPA at T14 schools. A few caveats:
1. This is ONLY based on LSN data, and only for the last application cycle, so you should bear that in mind. I just don't have the time to cut and paste the data, and I don't know how to readily access the totality of LSN data in spreadsheet format.
2. The analysis is based on a very simple regression model, using outcome (accepted or rejected) as the dependent variable, with the only independent variables being LSAT and GPA. What I'm not trying to do is create a comprehensive model that explains admissions decisions. I'm simply trying to determine how much of the variation on the dependent variable (do I get in or not?) can be explained by LSAT and GPA alone.
3. I am the furthest thing from a stats major, so take this for what it's worth. It's imperfect, but I still think it may be instructive.
Without further ado, then:
Notes:
- The parenthetical number in the first two tables is the pseudo R2ed. It is meant to represent the the variation on the dependent variable explained in terms of a percentage (e.g., 75 would mean that 75 percent of the admissions decision is based on LSAT and GPA alone). Because of a bunch of stats stuff that I don't want to get into, with a binary dependent variable (like the one we have here), this number becomes a little suspect, and as such is always to be taken with a grain of salt. But the best and brightest minds came up with it, so I think it's certainly meaningful.
- UVA, Michigan, and Penn are famous for suspected YP. If you look at the percentage change when waitlists are excluded, I think there's definitely some statistical evidence of this. The explanatory power of numbers alone increases by more than 4 times for UVA when you drop waitlists from the data. You can see that, while most schools have significant jumps when you exclude WLs, UVA, Michigan, and Penn are still in a class by themselves (maybe Chicago, too, but they seemed to have something weird against 177 LSAT scores last year...I'd have to dig into this more to say for sure).
- At the bottom of Table C, also in a class by themselves, we have Boalt and Yale. I think Boalt's lack of change can be chalked up to the fact that they just don't WL too many people, so including or excluding WLs makes little difference. Yale....is Yale.
I know I had stuff regarding importance of LSAT and GPA before, and I'll put that back up in a separate post. I'm messing with it right now.
Thanks for all the input, guys.
