This cycle versus next cycle?

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jackjackson
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This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby jackjackson » Sat May 14, 2011 11:56 pm

Does anyone believe that this next cycle will be any different ( easier/harsher etc.) then the last? Something I have overheard, was wondering what TLSers think.

scammedhard
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby scammedhard » Sun May 15, 2011 12:25 am

Considering the clear oversupply of lawyers and the negative headlines law school and the profession have generated in the last few years, and particularly in the last few months, I predict that there will be another big drop in applicants next cycle, thereby generating less competition and an easier cycle.

It's the law of supply and demand, and it is inevitable that there will be a diminished interest in law school for the foreseeable future.

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mrtoren
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby mrtoren » Sun May 15, 2011 12:49 am

scammedhard wrote:Considering the clear oversupply of lawyers and the negative headlines law school and the profession have generated in the last few years, and particularly in the last few months, I predict that there will be another big drop in applicants next cycle, thereby generating less competition and an easier cycle.

It's the law of supply and demand, and it is inevitable that there will be a diminished interest in law school for the foreseeable future.

This ^^ Hopefully.

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krasivaya
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby krasivaya » Sun May 15, 2011 12:50 am

scammedhard wrote:Considering the clear oversupply of lawyers and the negative headlines law school and the profession have generated in the last few years, and particularly in the last few months, I predict that there will be another big drop in applicants next cycle, thereby generating less competition and an easier cycle.

It's the law of supply and demand, and it is inevitable that there will be a diminished interest in law school for the foreseeable future.


I do like this.

oregon000
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby oregon000 » Sun May 15, 2011 12:59 am

krasivaya wrote:
scammedhard wrote:Considering the clear oversupply of lawyers and the negative headlines law school and the profession have generated in the last few years, and particularly in the last few months, I predict that there will be another big drop in applicants next cycle, thereby generating less competition and an easier cycle.

It's the law of supply and demand, and it is inevitable that there will be a diminished interest in law school for the foreseeable future.


I do like this.


yes please

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UnamSanctam
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby UnamSanctam » Sun May 15, 2011 2:57 am

oregon000 wrote:
krasivaya wrote:
scammedhard wrote:Considering the clear oversupply of lawyers and the negative headlines law school and the profession have generated in the last few years, and particularly in the last few months, I predict that there will be another big drop in applicants next cycle, thereby generating less competition and an easier cycle.

It's the law of supply and demand, and it is inevitable that there will be a diminished interest in law school for the foreseeable future.


I do like this.


yes please


We are all hoping that TITCR.

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Hannibal
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby Hannibal » Sun May 15, 2011 3:04 am

scammedhard wrote:Considering the clear oversupply of lawyers and the negative headlines law school and the profession have generated in the last few years, and particularly in the last few months, I predict that there will be another big drop in applicants next cycle, thereby generating less competition and an easier cycle.

It's the law of supply and demand, and it is inevitable that there will be a diminished interest in law school for the foreseeable future.


I don't really think that's the reason for the drop in applications. When the economy is bad, people go back to school. The economy has been adding jobs for a while now, and this is why there was a 10k drop this year and there will be another drop next year.

Even then it's not that simple. This year has been even worse than last year since the top schools reduced their class sizes (overall class size drop was more than 10%). I think this is because they know how overcrowded their schools are, and needed a breathing year (as well as a way to keep their numbers). I think next year we'll see a slight increase in class sizes, coupled with the reduction in apps to mean a markedly easier year.

shoeshine
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby shoeshine » Sun May 15, 2011 3:10 am

It will probably be the same at the top. Since the LSAT is curved nothing ever really changes at the top.

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Kabuo
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby Kabuo » Sun May 15, 2011 3:47 am

shoeshine wrote:It will probably be the same at the top. Since the LSAT is curved nothing ever really changes at the top.


I'm sorry. What? Fewer applicants = fewer 171+s, which means a 99th % LSAT might be a lot better for a splitter next year than this year. Unless by top you mean just HYS, then yes, of course nothing will have changed except maybe at H.

HyeMart
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby HyeMart » Sun May 15, 2011 3:48 am

I wouldn't use this speculation for deciding on whether or not to go this year, or apply next year.

jplayer
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby jplayer » Sun May 15, 2011 5:45 am

Hannibal wrote:
scammedhard wrote:Considering the clear oversupply of lawyers and the negative headlines law school and the profession have generated in the last few years, and particularly in the last few months, I predict that there will be another big drop in applicants next cycle, thereby generating less competition and an easier cycle.

It's the law of supply and demand, and it is inevitable that there will be a diminished interest in law school for the foreseeable future.


I don't really think that's the reason for the drop in applications. When the economy is bad, people go back to school. The economy has been adding jobs for a while now, and this is why there was a 10k drop this year and there will be another drop next year.

Even then it's not that simple. This year has been even worse than last year since the top schools reduced their class sizes (overall class size drop was more than 10%). I think this is because they know how overcrowded their schools are, and needed a breathing year (as well as a way to keep their numbers). I think next year we'll see a slight increase in class sizes, coupled with the reduction in apps to mean a markedly easier year.


Is that how they have been able to hold their numbers despite a drop in applicants by over 12%? I wonder how far down it goes.

If so, that is quite a financial hit, especially since most of them would have been paying sticker. I wonder if they won't be tempted to recoup some of it by increasing transfer size since it would not hurt their US News ranking and hiring seems to be on the upswing again.

Edit: I also wonder if firms will hire more deeply from the top schools or take more from lower ranked schools if there are smaller classes.

CanadianWolf
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby CanadianWolf » Sun May 15, 2011 11:17 am

It also depends upon the particular law school. While most law schools received fewer applications this cycle, some received more. For example, Yale (down about 11% & extended application due by date) & Duke (down 20%) were down considerably, yet Colorado's apps rose by over 12%.

P.S. It would be interesting to know which law schools received significantly more or significantly fewer applications this cycle.

071816
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby 071816 » Sun May 15, 2011 11:25 am

CanadianWolf wrote:It also depends upon the particular law school. While most law schools received fewer applications this cycle, some received more. For example, Yale (down about 11% & extended application due by date) & Duke (down 20%) were down considerably, yet Colorado's apps rose by over 12%.

P.S. It would be interesting to know which law schools received significantly more or significantly fewer applications this cycle.


Where are you getting these stats? I'm curious :P

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ahduth
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby ahduth » Sun May 15, 2011 10:43 pm

HyeMart wrote:I wouldn't use this speculation for deciding on whether or not to go this year, or apply next year.


This. But Hannibal's right, applications drop as the economy improves. Apps were down like... 12% this year or something? Adcoms will be less conservative about handing out admits next year, I'd think.

dissonance1848
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby dissonance1848 » Sun May 15, 2011 11:02 pm

I am willing to bet that apps will continue to fall, but it won't really affect the chances of getting into a top school. The ratio of people with top LSATs and GPAs to seats is still enough that the schools can be picky (within reason).

Its going to be regional schools that will have to loosen standards, and TTT & TTTTs which will take a big hit (I hope).

We still have 100 too many law schools in this country.

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sanetruth
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby sanetruth » Mon May 16, 2011 2:20 pm

I brought this up a while ago in another thread.

In Anna Ivey's book (a copy from 2004 or so), she mentions that medians swell periodically with increases in applications, and then fall again as they recede. She notes that the most recent time this had occurred at the time of writing was 2002-2003.

My theory (hope) was that with another rise and subsequent fall in applications, we could expect to see medians fall back again (since they have risen in recent years). I proposed this as an 'underperformance of medians', meaning that schools would be letting in people below what their numbers would suggest.

Someone wisely pointed out, however, that if there indeed was this cause-and-effect happening, we instead would be seeing a lot of waitlist movement, because schools wouldn't necessarily have anticipated the fall that we have seen. This does seem to be happening at most schools (at least in comparison to last year).

Now, the only difference between this year and next year would be that schools would have time to adjust their medians lower before the next cycle, thus letting in applicants that more match their new numbers and keeping waitlist movement to a minimum. So, in sum, i would say that the average applicant will get greater mileage out of their numbers next year as opposed to this year, assuming applications continue to fall.

CanadianWolf
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby CanadianWolf » Mon May 16, 2011 2:24 pm

@chimp: Some law schools provided numbers during this cycle. Yale, for example, cited their numbers when announcing an extension of the application deadline.

Reports have been posted from various school & news sources this cycle.

bdubs
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby bdubs » Mon May 16, 2011 2:29 pm

Hannibal wrote:Even then it's not that simple. This year has been even worse than last year since the top schools reduced their class sizes (overall class size drop was more than 10%).


I disagree with this. I think this year has overall been easier than last year. Schools are actually using their waitlists and I have seen a few posters on here get in to schools that they never would have gotten into last year.

I think you may see some slight readjustment in medians this year as a result of a general shift down in the number of applicants. This will probably be more immediately realized during first round acceptances next cycle.

No one knows what will happen with the overall number of applicants.

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minnbills
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby minnbills » Mon May 16, 2011 4:49 pm

Supposedly the drop in overall application numbers is being accompanied by better competition at the higher levels. Basically, people who are less qualified aren't applying at the same rate they used to.

I forget where I read that, though.

bmili
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Re: This cycle versus next cycle?

Postby bmili » Wed May 18, 2011 1:11 pm

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