applying way, way late - chances? wait? (3.78 at uva, 174)

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applying way, way late - chances? wait? (3.78 at uva, 174)

Postby highfidelity24 » Fri Jan 22, 2010 8:38 am

Had a couple application mishaps, so I ended up submitting applications earlier this week. Any idea what my chances are for CCN and Boalt? Perhaps I should apply next cycle? Any advice/input is welcome and gratefully received. Thanks.

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Re: applying way, way late - chances? wait? (3.78 at uva, 174)

Postby underachiever » Fri Jan 22, 2010 9:04 am

take a yr off...those numbers are Harvard, with an outside shot at Yale/Stanford....CCN will also give you more $ if you wait and apply early (9/1/10) next this economy it is worth it to wait to get into the best school possible even when we are taking about t6 schools

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Re: applying way, way late - chances? wait? (3.78 at uva, 174)

Postby Sogui » Fri Jan 22, 2010 11:47 am

Wait, WAIT?

Uhh unless this guy has something that looks good planned for next year, sitting on his ass isn't going to improve his chances anywhere, it's going to hurt them.

Even if he could get something done next year and wait a cycle, applying this late in the game won't kill you. Your numbers are very borderline for Harvard so you'll need some strong softs if you are considering it. You have a strong chance with NYU and a good chance for Columbia.

Just wait and see how this cycle turns out, all the calculators will give you a good idea of you chances. I don't buy into a lot of this stuff that insists that schools "raise the bar" for applicants later in the cycle, I'm going to link a post I made yesterday.

I question a lot of the assumptions people make about rolling admissions.

There are a few sensible assumptions you can make against the common assertion that "applying later hurts your chances".

1. Extremely well-organized and well-prepared candidates apply early. Sloppier candidates making last minute decisions, procrastinating on apps, etc... will naturally apply later. This is of course a generalization, not the rule, but I would think it would be enough to influence the quality of the "average" candidate over time.

Furthermore, I can't cite this, but one law school said in a panel they get a HUGE number of applications on the final day, I think it was at least 25%. Naturally most of the academic/LSAT superstars are not going to be sending in apps on the final day.

2. Schools have been doing this for decades without any major fluctuations in their candidate pools. They have tailored their admission process so that they can admit students on a routine basis throughout the cycle. Schools are always looking to increase their median GPA/LSAT of their class and they have MANY TOOLS for taking high-number candidates who applied early in the cycle and holding on to them (waitlisting/holding). So naturally, as the trend has always been for the median GPA/LSAT to rise slowly over time at top schools they have no reason to fill more seats earlier if they can hold some of the borderline candidates, wait and see what happens later in the cycle, and then choose their admits based on the quality of latter applicants. If the "Jan. Crowd" has a a higher number of "admit" candidates then the school just lets the waitlist/hold guys die a slow death, if the Jan. Crowd is weaker then admissions can always cherrypick some of those waitlist/hold guys.

The point here is schools have their admission process so they don't "blow their proverbial load" by filling a bunch of seats early on, they pick the "benchmarks" that they know will allow them to eventually fill all their seats, it would make no sense for them to admit tons of candidates early on and then miss out on candidates that will boost their numbers but applied later in the cycle. Those candidates would also end up at another law school, meaning any school with an inefficient admissions procedure would see themselves dropping in ranking over time as they lost great "later application" candidates to other schools, while continuing to admit more borderline candidates early on.

P.S. It's not "WAY WAY LATE". WAY WAY LATE is on the last day before the deadline when like 25-40% of applications come in. You're worrying too much, just sit back and wait... I would bet money that you'll get into NYU at least.

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