Fordham vs. William and Mary Forum

[iditarod]

And say per some chance I do receive those grades (top 15% or so) then is the risk worth it?

If I win the lottery, is buying a ticket worth the risk?

There's an 85% chance that you won't be in the top 15%.

This is not necessarily true and hack tls groupthink. if OP has a record of hitting the top 15% in his hs and undergrad and has an above median LSAT (which it sounds like he does), then he has a much better than 15% shot of hitting this mark.

No.

Pretty much every single person in OP's class will be able to say exactly the same thing. Think about it, dude.

Lol @ pretty much every single person in OP's class will have above median LSAT

There are so many people outside the tls bubble who are just happy to be at law school and aren't gunning for top 15%. While I agree that banking on top 15% is not smart, the idea that there's an 85% chance of him failing is a joke.

[rad lulz]

There are so many people outside the tls bubble who are just happy to be at law school and aren't gunning for top 15%.

Nope.

[iditarod]

Even if we grant that above median LSAT students have a slightly better shot at above median grades is that really something the OP or whoever are gonna roll the dice on. People with above LSAT medians finish with below median grades sometimes and if they took your advice then they are likely fucked.

My advice wasn't to bank on top 15%. I said that he has a greater than 15% chance of it happening. The whole 50% of people are wrong about what side of median grades they get is just a bit of a flame, imo

[North]

Even if we grant that above median LSAT students have a slightly better shot at above median grades is that really something the OP or whoever are gonna roll the dice on. People with above LSAT medians finish with below median grades sometimes and if they took your advice then they are likely fucked.

My advice wasn't to bank on top 15%. I said that he has a greater than 15% chance of it happening. The whole 50% of people are wrong about what side of median grades they get is just a bit of a flame, imo

You're giving some really stupid and terrible advice to people who might listen to you.

[iditarod]

Even if we grant that above median LSAT students have a slightly better shot at above median grades is that really something the OP or whoever are gonna roll the dice on. People with above LSAT medians finish with below median grades sometimes and if they took your advice then they are likely fucked.

My advice wasn't to bank on top 15%. I said that he has a greater than 15% chance of it happening. The whole 50% of people are wrong about what side of median grades they get is just a bit of a flame, imo

You're giving some really stupid and terrible advice to people who might listen to you.

Please point me to the "advice" I've given. You're just using lazy logic to get to a point I ultimately agree w/ "don't bank on top 15% and ability to transfer."

[iditarod]

You literally suggested grades are a crapshoot

[rad lulz]

You literally suggested grades are a crapshoot

Because you don't know how well you're gonna stack up against your classmates ex ante, yes.

[iditarod]

You literally suggested grades are a crapshoot

Because you don't know how well you're gonna stack up against your classmates ex ante, yes.

XD if you think there aren't good predictors of grades.

The only reason this line of logic is popular on tls is that it's chocked full of people who can study for a 175+ but can't write four sentences

[empyreanrrv]

You literally suggested grades are a crapshoot

Because you don't know how well you're gonna stack up against your classmates ex ante, yes.

Do you have anything to suggest grades are a crapshoot besides anecdotes? The only actual evidence I've seen points to the fact that they are not totally random and supports iditarod's idea.

[rad lulz]

You literally suggested grades are a crapshoot

Because you don't know how well you're gonna stack up against your classmates ex ante, yes.

XD if you think there aren't good predictors of grades.

The only reason this line of logic is popular on tls is that it's chocked full of people who can study for a 175+ but can't write four sentences

http://www.lsac.org/jd/pdfs/lsat-score- ... rmance.pdf

TLDR

LSAT and GPA shows best correlation at .48, on average, which is decent, but a .48 average doesn't show much predictive power for the individual

LSAT is .36

If you do to a "top school" where the 25th is in the high 160s and the 75th is in the low 170s, that's basically a handful of questions on the LSAT. Different between median and 75th of this school is basically a couple bad guesses. That's not gonna tell you much.

[empyreanrrv]

You literally suggested grades are a crapshoot

Because you don't know how well you're gonna stack up against your classmates ex ante, yes.

XD if you think there aren't good predictors of grades.

The only reason this line of logic is popular on tls is that it's chocked full of people who can study for a 175+ but can't write four sentences

http://www.lsac.org/jd/pdfs/lsat-score- ... rmance.pdf

TLDR

LSAT and GPA shows best correlation at .48, on average, which is decent, but a .48 average doesn't show much predictive power for the individual

LSAT is .36

If you do to a "top school" where the 25th is in the high 160s and the 75th is in the low 170s, that's basically a handful of questions on the LSAT. Different between median and 75th of this school is basically a couple bad guesses. That's not gonna tell you much.

Interesting-- thanks for that.

[iditarod]

Those correlation coefficients are on avg per school, so even those w/ tighter (edit: LSAT) distributions are incorporated. Suggesting that it means less at a "top school" is unsupported.

Furthermore, a .48 correlation coefficient accounts for 23% of variance in grades. That would lead me to believe that grades, despite your suggestions, are not a total crapshoot.

I only have to prove that it's significant for ONE person to prove my point.

[rad lulz]

Those correlation coefficients are on avg per school, so even those w/ tighter (edit: LSAT) distributions are incorporated. Suggesting that it means less at a "top school" is unsupported.

Furthermore, a .48 correlation coefficient accounts for 23% of variance in grades. That would lead me to believe that grades, despite your suggestions, are not a total crapshoot.

I only have to prove that it's significant for ONE person to prove my point.

Look brah, no one is really saying it's a total crapshoot as in it all comes down to merely the roll of the dice. If that were true, then I'd be saying, "don't study at all brah, just go write the exam, it's just a crapshoot." But as you can see, LSAT and GPA don't provide nearly a whole piece of the puzzle. Because you can't even begin to predict the rest of the factors (say you sleep through one class, and stuff from that class is worth a quarter of the exam; say personal jurisdiction just clicks for you; say you couldn't sleep before your first exam; maybe the exam is multiple choice and you find out you suck at those; etc.), it's dangerous to tell people just from their LSAT and GPA where they can expect to end up in the class (and advise people to throw down vast sums of money on that estimation). In that respect, it's a crapshoot. Stop being a retard about semantics.

[timbs4339]

Those correlation coefficients are on avg per school, so even those w/ tighter (edit: LSAT) distributions are incorporated. Suggesting that it means less at a "top school" is unsupported.

Furthermore, a .48 correlation coefficient accounts for 23% of variance in grades. That would lead me to believe that grades, despite your suggestions, are not a total crapshoot.

I only have to prove that it's significant for ONE person to prove my point.

Look brah, no one is really saying it's a total crapshoot as in it all comes down to merely the roll of the dice. If that were true, then I'd be saying, "don't study at all brah, just go write the exam, it's just a crapshoot." But as you can see, LSAT and GPA don't provide nearly a whole piece of the puzzle. Because you can't even begin to predict the rest of the factors (say you sleep through one class, and stuff from that class is worth a quarter of the exam; say personal jurisdiction just clicks for you; say you couldn't sleep before your first exam; maybe the exam is multiple choice and you find out you suck at those; etc.), it's dangerous to tell people just from their LSAT and GPA where they can expect to end up in the class (and advise people to throw down vast sums of money on that estimation). In that respect, it's a crapshoot. Stop being a retard about semantics.

+1

[iditarod]

I'm not arguing semantics, 1 is the opposite of 0.

I never advised anyone to predict they could land in the top X%. In fact, I suggested the opposite. My point is that the conventional tls wisdom that "90% of people who think they will be in the top 10% are wrong" is lazy and exaggerated. If someone is going to a LS with above median GPA and LSAT would you say that they're less likely to hit median grades than a coin is to come up false? Of course not. But that is what people are saying when they tell people who have reason to think they will perform well in LS that they won't.

[lawhopeful10]

The advice given is that people should not spend large amounts of money at schools that give a relatively low chance at a job or a job able to pay back those loans. As people have said on this forum countless of times even if grades aren't completely random they aren't controllable in the sense that one should bank on top 10% when deciding where to go. Fuck yourself for arguing an almost worthless point.

[Ramius]

I'm not arguing semantics, 1 is the opposite of 0.

I never advised anyone to predict they could land in the top X%. In fact, I suggested the opposite. My point is that the conventional tls wisdom that "90% of people who think they will be in the top 10% are wrong" is lazy and exaggerated. If someone is going to a LS with above median GPA and LSAT would you say that they're less likely to hit median grades than a coin is to come up false? Of course not. But that is what people are saying when they tell people who have reason to think they will perform well in LS that they won't.

What they are saying and what you are saying are different though. They are saying 90% of people who think they will (can be read as want to be, but regardless) end up in the top 10% of the class will not. Presumably everyone wants to be in that top echelon, and therefore the statement is accurate.

Your statement regarding the likelihood of whether any given person will be in the top 10% of their class can be equally factual, but what people are arguing against is that their is no factual basis to support this. You may contend it follows some sort of logic, but there is still nothing to back that up beyond saying "their numbers are above those of the average (by way of GPA and LSAT) student, so they must have a better chance to succeed in law school academics." You may be right, but you have done nothing to back it up.

[Shmoopy]

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[rickgrimes69]

You literally suggested grades are a crapshoot

They're pretty close to a crapshoot. If you're setting the curve (at either end) you probably did something to deserve it. But everything in the middle is all but impossible to predict since you don't know how your classmates will do.

I was sure pretty sure I straight up failed one of my classes last semester - I had no idea what I was doing. Turns out, neither did anyone else, and I scored significantly above median. Conversely, what I thought was my best class ended up being my worst grade.

[iditarod]

I agree with a lot that's been said here, but my main point goes back to someone suggesting that OP had an 85% chance of missing top 15%.

I assumed based on his aid that he has above median LSAT / grades, which means that he is more likely (by however much) to hit his mark than most students. I don't think it is likely enough to shell out lots of cash.

To matthewsean's point, thinking they will and wanting to be are definitely different and therefore the criticism of my argument has not been given any real support. e.g if you have median numbers for NYU and go there, you are probably less likely to think you will hit top 10% than if you take those numbers to W&M, and are statistically, more likely to hit top 10% at w&m.

Edit: this person presumably wants to hit top 10 at each school

I accept the fact that people's predictions are often unsupported or simply wrong because of factors outside their control. The argument for the total arbitrariness of grades, though, is something that is largely unquestioned on TLS and that has been my impetus for doing so.

[empyreanrrv]

If LSAT/UGPA did not predict 1st year grades, the LSAC coefficient would be 0 or near 0. It is not. LSAT/UGPA can help predict 1st year grades in that (on average) 48% of a person's 1st year grades are a result of their LSAT/UGPA and 52% is a result of everything else. I don't see how anyone can argue that this correlation doesn't exist. The question that should be asked is to what extent does this correlation predict grades. Obviously someone who barely scrapes into NYU does not stand a 50% chance of getting above median, but is it a 40% chance? 30%? I'm not a math guy so I'll have to pass this off to someone else, but I think this is the point that iditarod is trying to hit.

[Ruxin1]

OP probably doesn't need to worry about grades considering he'll get personality pwned it seems.

[scrappydoo716]

OP probably doesn't need to worry about grades considering he'll get personality pwned it seems.

what is that even supposed to mean?

[scrappydoo716]

Alright I've heard your arguments re: grades and I completely understand the amount of work and luck it takes for something like that to happen, but my question was more of a hypothetical dealing with whether it is worth giving up being high in a class at William & Mary where I have a scholarship to transfer into a t14 school and probably become more of a middle of the pack student.

[rad lulz]

Alright I've heard your arguments re: grades and I completely understand the amount of work and luck it takes for something like that to happen, but my question was more of a hypothetical dealing with whether it is worth giving up being high in a class at William & Mary where I have a scholarship to transfer into a t14 school and probably become more of a middle of the pack student.

In all likelihood you won't make grades good enough to do that, so don't worry about it.