Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

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ATR
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby ATR » Mon Feb 28, 2011 1:02 am

TheFactor wrote:
ATR wrote:
beachbum wrote:I don't like to brag, but I'm qualified to join MENSA.

Yeah, and so is everyone who scored 167+ on the LSAT.

'Grats.

I knew I was a genius.

167

Just barely.

TheFactor
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby TheFactor » Mon Feb 28, 2011 1:06 am

ATR wrote:
TheFactor wrote:
ATR wrote:
beachbum wrote:I don't like to brag, but I'm qualified to join MENSA.

Yeah, and so is everyone who scored 167+ on the LSAT.

'Grats.

I knew I was a genius.

167

Just barely.

Who cares...MENSA is a real pantie-dropper.

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Malcolm8X
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby Malcolm8X » Mon Feb 28, 2011 1:17 am

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d0009da6-429e ... z1FE6Tf0NR

To add to the SUPPORT part of the thread. Here are reassuring words from an expert (although there is inherent bias and you probably gotta take it with a grain of salt). Hopefully this is a sign of a returning rise in employment prospects.

“The prophets of doom have overlooked the all-important factor that is certain: human potential is far from exhausted and the American system for unleashing that potential . . . remains alive and effective.”
-Warren Buffett

The nation's "best days lie ahead".
-Warren Buffett

Edit: Grammar

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powerlawyer06
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby powerlawyer06 » Mon Feb 28, 2011 1:33 am

I will try and add some support for the 100k+ debt crowd. Although I am sure I will be jumped all over once again.

I don’t think everyone on this thread is choosing between a full ride at a T25 or full sticker at a T6. I think that the borrower definitely has a tough choice in that situation.

If you look at the NLJ 250 numbers for 2010 there have been huge decreases in regional school recruiting. I think that going to Texas or USC with a partial scholarship over a T6 was more viable in the good economy when you had near a 45% shot at big law still. However, those schools are only putting 28% and 26% in big law respectively. All the more reason to take on a little more debt and give yourself much better job prospects at Chicago (59% ) or Columbia (55%).

viewtopic.php?f=23&t=148674

People that keep saying, “You are crazy for taking out 100k in debt ITE” have no idea how the economy works. It is cyclical. There are always recessions. That is just part of capitalism. People will always claim that this recession is the beginning of the end and we are headed off a cliff but we truly never are. The stock market has definitely recovered and the job market is set to follow suit. The job market usually lags the stock market by a year or two but the recession ended in 2009.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_re ... ted_States

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/09/2 ... 31450.html

TheOcho
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby TheOcho » Mon Feb 28, 2011 1:42 am

powerlawyer06 wrote:That is just part of capitalism.


Not to get off topic, but no. Part of whatever we have now, yes. You are on to something if you're saying we cannot necessarily predict the job market two or three years down the road, however. Conversely, I think it's a really possibility the economy could be in worse shape a few years from now. How that will play out with the legal market, I don't know.

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Malcolm8X
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby Malcolm8X » Mon Feb 28, 2011 1:52 am

Exactly. That's something a lot of people ignore. It is cyclical.. "ITE" = present. People who keep saying that you're crazy paying sticker "ITE" get on my damn nerves. Yes, I know the economy sucks. Thank you for telling me that the Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl in 2011. The real prize goes to those who can predict the superbowl winner 1-3 yrs from now.

The economy will get better. But my only caveat to the cyclical argument is predicting what the abundance of lawyers (40000 lawyers a friggin year!) will do. We have to take into account recent drop offs in law school applications/cutbacks in school seating/ and unknown ABA responses to the dearth in the legal market (crossing my fingers for a strong response).

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Malcolm8X
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby Malcolm8X » Mon Feb 28, 2011 1:54 am

TheOcho wrote:
powerlawyer06 wrote:That is just part of capitalism.


Not to get off topic, but no. Part of whatever we have now, yes. You are on to something if you're saying we cannot necessarily predict the job market two or three years down the road, however. Conversely, I think it's a really possibility the economy could be in worse shape a few years from now. How that will play out with the legal market, I don't know.


I think if we're "worse off" down the road (2-3yrs from now), my 6 figure debt would be the last concern on my mind.

FiveSermon
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby FiveSermon » Mon Feb 28, 2011 2:08 am

Malcolm8X wrote:
TheOcho wrote:
powerlawyer06 wrote:That is just part of capitalism.


Not to get off topic, but no. Part of whatever we have now, yes. You are on to something if you're saying we cannot necessarily predict the job market two or three years down the road, however. Conversely, I think it's a really possibility the economy could be in worse shape a few years from now. How that will play out with the legal market, I don't know.


I think if we're "worse off" down the road (2-3yrs from now), my 6 figure debt would be the last concern on my mind.


Really? It would be #1 for me.

Hey-O
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby Hey-O » Mon Feb 28, 2011 2:11 am

FiveSermon wrote:
Malcolm8X wrote:
TheOcho wrote:
powerlawyer06 wrote:That is just part of capitalism.


Not to get off topic, but no. Part of whatever we have now, yes. You are on to something if you're saying we cannot necessarily predict the job market two or three years down the road, however. Conversely, I think it's a really possibility the economy could be in worse shape a few years from now. How that will play out with the legal market, I don't know.


I think if we're "worse off" down the road (2-3yrs from now), my 6 figure debt would be the last concern on my mind.


Really? It would be #1 for me.


Not if we're experience hyper inflation. 8)

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Malcolm8X
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby Malcolm8X » Mon Feb 28, 2011 2:14 am

FiveSermon wrote:
Malcolm8X wrote:
TheOcho wrote:
powerlawyer06 wrote:That is just part of capitalism.


Not to get off topic, but no. Part of whatever we have now, yes. You are on to something if you're saying we cannot necessarily predict the job market two or three years down the road, however. Conversely, I think it's a really possibility the economy could be in worse shape a few years from now. How that will play out with the legal market, I don't know.


I think if we're "worse off" down the road (2-3yrs from now), my 6 figure debt would be the last concern on my mind.


Really? It would be #1 for me.


A crash followed by another recession so soon?! To me that's a sign that the economy has collapsed and the government can't fix it. EVERYBODY would be screwed.

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Malcolm8X
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby Malcolm8X » Mon Feb 28, 2011 2:16 am

I think if we're "worse off" down the road (2-3yrs from now), my 6 figure debt would be the last concern on my mind.[/quote]

Really? It would be #1 for me.[/quote]

Not if we're experience hyper inflation. 8)[/quote]

Lol!! Hyperinflation would be friggin awesome!! I'd pay the debt off in one day's labor, lol. Then go home to my cardboard box house.

Hey-O
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby Hey-O » Mon Feb 28, 2011 2:18 am

Malcolm8X wrote:I think if we're "worse off" down the road (2-3yrs from now), my 6 figure debt would be the last concern on my mind.


Really? It would be #1 for me.[/quote]

Not if we're experience hyper inflation. 8)[/quote]

Lol!! Hyperinflation would be friggin awesome!! I'd pay the debt off in one day's labor, lol. Then go home to my cardboard box house.[/quote]

Your house might be made of $100 bills!

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rinkrat19
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby rinkrat19 » Mon Feb 28, 2011 2:35 am

FiveSermon wrote:
Malcolm8X wrote:
TheOcho wrote:
powerlawyer06 wrote:That is just part of capitalism.


Not to get off topic, but no. Part of whatever we have now, yes. You are on to something if you're saying we cannot necessarily predict the job market two or three years down the road, however. Conversely, I think it's a really possibility the economy could be in worse shape a few years from now. How that will play out with the legal market, I don't know.


I think if we're "worse off" down the road (2-3yrs from now), my 6 figure debt would be the last concern on my mind.


Really? It would be #1 for me.


If we're "worse off" in a few years, we'll probably all be too worried about fighting over gasoline and drinkable water, Mad Max-style, to worry about student loan debt.

FiveSermon
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby FiveSermon » Mon Feb 28, 2011 3:05 am


If we're "worse off" in a few years, we'll probably all be too worried about fighting over gasoline and drinkable water, Mad Max-style, to worry about student loan debt.


Can't we have a "worse off" hypothetical that isn't the equivalent of a post WW1 Germany or some kind of apocalypse?

Hey-O
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby Hey-O » Mon Feb 28, 2011 3:53 am

FiveSermon wrote:

If we're "worse off" in a few years, we'll probably all be too worried about fighting over gasoline and drinkable water, Mad Max-style, to worry about student loan debt.


Can't we have a "worse off" hypothetical that isn't the equivalent of a post WW1 Germany or some kind of apocalypse?


Yeah, seriously. Our economy went through a recession only slightly larger than the previous recessions. It was just very dramatic. Things could get much worse without having anyone riding into the Thunder Dome. We could just have the 70s.

FiveSermon
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby FiveSermon » Mon Feb 28, 2011 3:54 am

Hey-O wrote:
FiveSermon wrote:

If we're "worse off" in a few years, we'll probably all be too worried about fighting over gasoline and drinkable water, Mad Max-style, to worry about student loan debt.


Can't we have a "worse off" hypothetical that isn't the equivalent of a post WW1 Germany or some kind of apocalypse?


Yeah, seriously. Our economy went through a recession only slightly larger than the previous recessions. It was just very dramatic. Things could get much worse without having anyone riding into the Thunder Dome. We could just have the 70s.


Nevermind. Recreating the Thunderdome would be worth it.

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fatduck
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby fatduck » Mon Feb 28, 2011 3:54 am

Hey-O wrote:
FiveSermon wrote:

If we're "worse off" in a few years, we'll probably all be too worried about fighting over gasoline and drinkable water, Mad Max-style, to worry about student loan debt.


Can't we have a "worse off" hypothetical that isn't the equivalent of a post WW1 Germany or some kind of apocalypse?


Yeah, seriously. Our economy went through a recession only slightly larger than the previous recessions. It was just very dramatic. Things could get much worse without having anyone riding into the Thunder Dome. We could just have the 70s.

way to burst my bubble

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niederbomb
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby niederbomb » Mon Feb 28, 2011 7:41 am

Hey-O wrote:
FiveSermon wrote:

If we're "worse off" in a few years, we'll probably all be too worried about fighting over gasoline and drinkable water, Mad Max-style, to worry about student loan debt.


Can't we have a "worse off" hypothetical that isn't the equivalent of a post WW1 Germany or some kind of apocalypse?


Yeah, seriously. Our economy went through a recession only slightly larger than the previous recessions. It was just very dramatic. Things could get much worse without having anyone riding into the Thunder Dome. We could just have the 70s.


Could things get worse than they were in 2009? Probably. Will they? Not if the Stock Market is any indication. Basically, we had the foreclosures, then the financial apocalypse + the bailouts, then the beginning of a recovery, then a pullback due to sovereign debt crises in early 2010. Now we've moved past that, and Warren Buffet (and others) are bullish on the economy going forward. The S&P 500 is more than double what it was in early 2009. China's ability to erode into U.S. manufacturing is slowing also, as food prices skyrocket, workers riot for higher wages, and Yuan appreciates. While things might be slow for quite sometime, I think the economy is mostly up from here on out.

...and the Democrats lost the House and will probably lose the Senate in 2012 when Obama wins reelection. Split government is good for the economy.

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icouldbuyu
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby icouldbuyu » Mon Feb 28, 2011 7:56 am

niederbomb wrote:
Hey-O wrote:
FiveSermon wrote:

If we're "worse off" in a few years, we'll probably all be too worried about fighting over gasoline and drinkable water, Mad Max-style, to worry about student loan debt.


Can't we have a "worse off" hypothetical that isn't the equivalent of a post WW1 Germany or some kind of apocalypse?


Yeah, seriously. Our economy went through a recession only slightly larger than the previous recessions. It was just very dramatic. Things could get much worse without having anyone riding into the Thunder Dome. We could just have the 70s.


Could things get worse than they were in 2009? Probably. Will they? Not if the Stock Market is any indication. Basically, we had the foreclosures, then the financial apocalypse + the bailouts, then the beginning of a recovery, then a pullback due to sovereign debt crises in early 2010. Now we've moved past that, and Warren Buffet (and others) are bullish on the economy going forward. The S&P 500 is more than double what it was in early 2009. China's ability to erode into U.S. manufacturing is slowing also, as food prices skyrocket, workers riot for higher wages, and Yuan appreciates. While things might be slow for quite sometime, I think the economy is mostly up from here on out.

...and the Democrats lost the House and will probably lose the Senate in 2012 when Obama wins reelection. Split government is good for the economy.


I think the only concerns regarding the state of the economy are the current uprisings in North Africa/Middle East. The Libya revolt has led to soaring oil prices. Recovery is inevitable for all the reasons listed above. But excessively high oil prices can erode economic growth.

Hey-O
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby Hey-O » Mon Feb 28, 2011 8:04 am

I think the only concerns regarding the state of the economy are the current uprisings in North Africa/Middle East. The Libya revolt has led to soaring oil prices. Recovery is inevitable for all the reasons listed above. But excessively high oil prices can erode economic growth.


The spike in oil seems purely speculative, as above ground storage is at an all time high and there has been minimal supply disruption.

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rman1201
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby rman1201 » Mon Feb 28, 2011 9:02 am

1) If there was hyperinflation that would be great news for anyone who took a six figure debt plunge

2) The best time to go to law school is when things are on the upswing. There is risk involved in the event of the economy going downhill again, but there aren't really any factors pointing to that, all signs show recovery. Firms gouged their payroll during the beginning of the recession and now it's looking like they'll have a lot of making up to do in their staffs. This may be overly optimistic, but it beats the advice of other posters in this thread which crossed the line from overly pessimistic into plain nonsensical (Don't go to law school without connections, don't ever take out six figures to go to law school - even Columbia, etc)

TheOcho
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby TheOcho » Mon Feb 28, 2011 9:47 am

niederbomb wrote:I think the only concerns regarding the state of the economy are the current uprisings in North Africa/Middle East.


Not to be contrarian, but there are plenty of economists who will argue our economic "recovery" has been entirely artificial. There has been no fundamental change in the capital structure of the economy and when stimulus stops and interest rates are allowed to return to market levels we will have another housing-like crash in a different sector of the economy. I sure hope I'm wrong, but it's a real possibility.

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niederbomb
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby niederbomb » Mon Feb 28, 2011 10:17 am

TheOcho wrote:
niederbomb wrote:I think the only concerns regarding the state of the economy are the current uprisings in North Africa/Middle East.


Not to be contrarian, but there are plenty of economists who will argue our economic "recovery" has been entirely artificial. There has been no fundamental change in the capital structure of the economy and when stimulus stops and interest rates are allowed to return to market levels we will have another housing-like crash in a different sector of the economy. I sure hope I'm wrong, but it's a real possibility.


What other sector of the economy are we talking about? Also, a bunch of big banks went bust while others were forced to adapt or were bailed out. The foreclosure crisis is not getting worse, and it's reasonable to say that any financial company who's weathered it thus far is probably going to survive long term. So, in a way, the fundamentals of the economy have changed, and maybe the capital structure for the remaining companies is ok.

Also, a lot of the stimulus is already gone, and most of it went to special interest groups anyway. I'm not sure current growth is solely or even significantly due to stimulus spending. We might still be in a recession for a long time to come; however, since we have thus far escaped the inflation of the 70's, and Chinese exports are weakening by the day, I think it's fair to say that the market will broadly get better between now and when I do OCI in 2012 or 2013.

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rman1201
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby rman1201 » Mon Feb 28, 2011 10:21 am

TheOcho wrote:
niederbomb wrote:I think the only concerns regarding the state of the economy are the current uprisings in North Africa/Middle East.


Not to be contrarian, but there are plenty of economists who will argue our economic "recovery" has been entirely artificial. There has been no fundamental change in the capital structure of the economy and when stimulus stops and interest rates are allowed to return to market levels we will have another housing-like crash in a different sector of the economy. I sure hope I'm wrong, but it's a real possibility.


Of course, capitalism by nature is boom and bust. The point is to get our jobs during the boom phase that's soon to come and hopefully hang on to them.

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lolschool2011
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Re: Support Thread for the 6-figure debt plunge

Postby lolschool2011 » Mon Feb 28, 2011 10:25 am

niederbomb wrote:
TheOcho wrote:
niederbomb wrote:I think the only concerns regarding the state of the economy are the current uprisings in North Africa/Middle East.


Not to be contrarian, but there are plenty of economists who will argue our economic "recovery" has been entirely artificial. There has been no fundamental change in the capital structure of the economy and when stimulus stops and interest rates are allowed to return to market levels we will have another housing-like crash in a different sector of the economy. I sure hope I'm wrong, but it's a real possibility.


What other sector of the economy are we talking about? Also, a bunch of big banks went bust while others were forced to adapt or were bailed out. The foreclosure crisis is not getting worse, and it's reasonable to say that any financial company who's weathered it thus far is probably going to survive long term. So, in a way, the fundamentals of the economy have changed, and maybe the capital structure for the remaining companies is ok.

Also, a lot of the stimulus is already gone, and most of it went to special interest groups anyway. I'm not sure current growth is solely or even significantly due to stimulus spending. We might still be in a recession for a long time to come; however, since we have thus far escaped the inflation of the 70's, and Chinese exports are weakening by the day, I think it's fair to say that the market will broadly get better between now and when I do OCI in 2012 or 2013.[/quote]

Wow - this is a lot of wrong in a small amount of space. In any case, I corrected for you. I have direct experience in the sectors you're attempting to discuss and you are about as wrong as one can possibly be wrong. If you were being ironical or sarcastic, this would be a funny joke, but if you're serious, then most of what you said is ridiculously off.




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