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I think that UVA is my number one choice, but I am wondering whether or not I should apply ED. Do I have a solid chance to get in if I apply beginning of October RD?

And also, what are my $$$ chances at a school like Georgetown? I would hate to apply ED at UVA and pay sticker price if I have a good chance at getting serious money at Georgetown or Duke.

Definitely don't ED if you'd rather take a scholarship at Georgetown or Duke. Your numbers are decent for all three. You should also apply to other peer schools in the T14 (Michigan, Northwestern, etc.) for negotiation purposes.