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Summary of my stats:

172 LSAT
3.15 GPA -> school median GPA ~3.0, ~75% of classes hard science/math, GPA trended down
D1 varsity athlete, 4 years -> T&F, 4'10 mile shows my commitment level
3 years w/e in strategy consulting @ boutique -> prof services + demonstrable work ethic & maturity
white male

Mostly I'm wondering about how my work experience and EC's will affect admission's opinion of my GPA. I also can't cry away my performance by claiming cancer/death/depression/whatever. Is retaking and hitting a 175+ worth the effort? My feeling is no.

Also I'm planning to apply RD with my top three interests in NW/UVA/Upenn. Applying to about 12 schools total: everything from #6 down, with another 4 in the T25.

What are my chances for T14? For my top three interests?

You're pretty much going to end up where your stats will take you.

I'd only ED at NW. You don't want to be stuck with sticker debt at UVA when you could definitely get other options. Our distinguished TLS-er and former Commander in Chief from Virginia, James K. Polk has very similar stats as you, so hopefully he'll pop in and share his insights.

If you're willing, I don't think a retake can hurt you. Frankly, in a fight as a splitter, I'd want as much LSAT ammo as I could muster. The logical thing is to max out your LSAT, since you have to fight tooth and nail to counteract your GPA.