Chances at T20? 2.4/172 Forum

[PeanutsNJam]

I'm waiting for my Sept retake score, which hopefully is higher than 170, but the score I have on file is a 170.

ETA- Got my score, it's a 172.

I've checked mylsn.info, and all it has is like 1 or 2 people getting into NW/UCLA off the waitlist. For most of these schools, nobody even applied. Strangely enough, BU rejected 2/2 applications with the same numbers.

What are my chances at:

UT Austin
Vandy
UCLA
USC
WUSTL (mylsn and law school numbers graphs seem to believe I'm pretty much locked in here)
BU (not T20 but I'd like your opinions)

What are some recommended safeties?

[03152016]

I'm waiting for my Sept retake score, which hopefully is higher than 170, but the score I have on file is a 170.

I've checked mylsn.info, and all it has is like 1 or 2 people getting into NW/UCLA off the waitlist. For most of these schools, nobody even applied. Strangely enough, BU rejected 2/2 applications with the same numbers.

What are my chances at:

UT Austin
Vandy
UCLA
USC
WUSTL (mylsn and law school numbers graphs seem to believe I'm pretty much locked in here)
BU (not T20 but I'd like your opinions)

What are some recommended safeties?

How would my chances change if I score 172+? 175+?

why bother posting this before you get your score back

[LET'S GET IT]

I'm waiting for my Sept retake score, which hopefully is higher than 170, but the score I have on file is a 170.

I've checked mylsn.info, and all it has is like 1 or 2 people getting into NW/UCLA off the waitlist. For most of these schools, nobody even applied. Strangely enough, BU rejected 2/2 applications with the same numbers.

What are my chances at:

UT Austin
Vandy
UCLA
USC
WUSTL (mylsn and law school numbers graphs seem to believe I'm pretty much locked in here)
BU (not T20 but I'd like your opinions)

What are some recommended safeties?

How would my chances change if I score 172+? 175+?

You are in at WUSTL, probably with a decent amount of money. BU is famous for YP, but if you can somehow convince them you are legitimately interested (which it seems you might be), I think you have a great shot there. Don't know much about the California schools. I think if your Sept. score ends up being 172+, Northwestern becomes a legit factor as well since they don't seem to enforce a GPA floor. Just a tip: be prepared to answer questions about what happened when you speak with Northwestern, and probably WUSTL as well. Good luck.

Forgot about your safeties question: I think WUSTL is your safety, quite frankly, as you should get a nice offer from them. Disclaimer: I go there, so take that as you will.

[KMart]

I'm waiting for my Sept retake score, which hopefully is higher than 170, but the score I have on file is a 170.

I've checked mylsn.info, and all it has is like 1 or 2 people getting into NW/UCLA off the waitlist. For most of these schools, nobody even applied. Strangely enough, BU rejected 2/2 applications with the same numbers.

What are my chances at:

UT Austin
Vandy
UCLA
USC
WUSTL (mylsn and law school numbers graphs seem to believe I'm pretty much locked in here)
BU (not T20 but I'd like your opinions)

What are some recommended safeties?

How would my chances change if I score 172+? 175+?

You are in at WUSTL, probably with a decent amount of money. BU is famous for YP, but if you can somehow convince them you are legitimately interested (which it seems you might be), I think you have a great shot there. Don't know much about the California schools. I think if your Sept. score ends up being 172+, Northwestern becomes a legit factor as well since they don't seem to enforce a GPA floor. Just a tip: be prepared to answer questions about what happened when you speak with Northwestern, and probably WUSTL as well. Good luck.

Forgot about your safeties question: I think WUSTL is your safety, quite frankly, as you should get a nice offer from them. Disclaimer: I go there, so take that as you will.

Did you have an upward GPA trend? This helps alleviate some concern. A lot of splitters had a death or some terrible circumstance that limited their ability to do well. One semester can really be pretty catastrophic GPA-wise. If this is the case your outlook is better for the aforementioned schools.

[PeanutsNJam]

Did you have an upward GPA trend? This helps alleviate some concern. A lot of splitters had a death or some terrible circumstance that limited their ability to do well. One semester can really be pretty catastrophic GPA-wise. If this is the case your outlook is better for the aforementioned schools.

Death of an immediate family member a month after starting my freshmen year, freshman GPA was 1.9. There's a slight upward trend but I really didn't have any 4.0 semesters. I also had to work part-time throughout school as a waiter/bartender to cover living expenses.

@Brut: I'm really in a worst-case scenario planning mode right now.

@Let's Get It: Yeah I'd actually like to be in Boston, so I guess I'll try to write a convincing Why X essay for BU.

My reasoning for these schools:

I'd like to be in Chicago/Boston/Cali

Vandy- I have ties in Nashville and they have phenomenal federal clerkship placement (9%) for a non-T10

UT Austin- Applying for scholly negotiations, don't really want to go here

WUSTL- Safety I guess, don't know much about St. Louis but it sounds like a very solid school so I'm not upset about this

[Ramius]

What are your eventual goals?

[darth lulz]

Did you have an upward GPA trend? This helps alleviate some concern. A lot of splitters had a death or some terrible circumstance that limited their ability to do well. One semester can really be pretty catastrophic GPA-wise. If this is the case your outlook is better for the aforementioned schools.

Death of an immediate family member a month after starting my freshmen year, freshman GPA was 1.9. There's a slight upward trend but I really didn't have any 4.0 semesters. I also had to work part-time throughout school as a waiter/bartender to cover living expenses.

@Brut: I'm really in a worst-case scenario planning mode right now.

@Let's Get It: Yeah I'd actually like to be in Boston, so I guess I'll try to write a convincing Why X essay for BU.

My reasoning for these schools:

I'd like to be in Chicago/Boston/Cali

Vandy- I have ties in Nashville and they have phenomenal federal clerkship placement (9%) for a non-T10

UT Austin- Applying for scholly negotiations, don't really want to go here

WUSTL- Safety I guess, don't know much about St. Louis but it sounds like a very solid school so I'm not upset about this

if you have no interest in going to UT (first of all, your funeral) then don't waste your money on the app

if you would be so lucky as to get in you're not getting really any money

also you're probably not going to get enough money at vandy for it to be a reasonable option; don't see why wustl would give you a fully either (but haven't looked at mylsn for $ there)

i'd try to lower your expectations at this point honestly

[BigZuck]

Federal clerkship placement by itself doesn't matter, it's such a remote chance I wouldn't bother thinking about it.

UT is unlikely to give you any money, I wouldn't bother if you wouldn't consider attending.

Not really such a thing as safety school for law school, just schools that are worth attending given your own personal circumstances.

Given you're such a splitter, just got to apply and see what happens. When you have options in 6 months or so, then come back and TLS can help you decide what to do.

[PeanutsNJam]

If you guys were able to take out interest-free loans, would you go to a school that gave less money?

My goals are Biglaw/Clerkship if possible.

Also, take Vandy's numbers as an example, they have 35.9% biglaw placement. This means that if I'm in the top 30% of my class, I'd have a very solid shot at biglaw right? So it's not that I have a 30% chance at biglaw period... it's just I need to perform better in school than a T14 kid.

Similarly for clerkships, if it's 9% placement, that means that I'd need to be in the top 10% of my class to have a good shot, right?

[darth lulz]

and where are you getting these interest free loans from

no that's not really how it works. the great bz can probably better elucidate bl/fed hiring though

[Ramius]

If you guys were able to take out interest-free loans, would you go to a school that gave less money?

My goals are Biglaw/Clerkship if possible.

Also, take Vandy's numbers as an example, they have 35.9% biglaw placement. This means that if I'm in the top 30% of my class, I'd have a very solid shot at biglaw right? So it's not that I have a 30% chance at biglaw period... it's just I need to perform better in school than a T14 kid.

Similarly for clerkships, if it's 9% placement, that means that I'd need to be in the top 10% of my class to have a good shot, right?

That's fine logic, because in a vacuum you aren't wrong. But you have no way of predicting that performance, and that's a horrible $200k+ investment in a 30% chance of your desired outcome.

Just because you carry a solid LSAT doesn't mean you'll rock law school. Consider yourself the average admit to a given school and ask yourself if you'd be okay with that outcome.

If the median outcome for all students is untenable to you, then reconsider what you're doing. You can't assume you'll be top 50%, 30%, 10%, etc. Confirmation bias needs to not be a thing in your decisionmaking process.

[A. Nony Mouse]

If you guys were able to take out interest-free loans, would you go to a school that gave less money?

My goals are Biglaw/Clerkship if possible.

Also, take Vandy's numbers as an example, they have 35.9% biglaw placement. This means that if I'm in the top 30% of my class, I'd have a very solid shot at biglaw right? So it's not that I have a 30% chance at biglaw period... it's just I need to perform better in school than a T14 kid.

Similarly for clerkships, if it's 9% placement, that means that I'd need to be in the top 10% of my class to have a good shot, right?

This isn't really something you can count on, though, because there's nothing that says the 35.9% that get biglaw are in the top 35.9% of the class. Some of those people may well come to law school with pre-existing connections to the job they ultimately get, so their grades don't matter so much. Others may have such desirable pre-LS work experience, or interview so incredibly well, that they can punch above their weight, so to speak. Sure, you probably have a better shot at biglaw if you're in the top 30% than if you're not (ditto for clerkships in top 10%), but it's not a direct correlation (and I don't get the "I just need to perform better in school than a T14 kid" - that doesn't make any sense to me).

[PeanutsNJam]

Just because you carry a solid LSAT doesn't mean you'll rock law school. Consider yourself the average admit to a given school and ask yourself if you'd be okay with that outcome.

I'm nowhere near entitled or arrogant enough to presume that I'm more intelligent than my peers, and that is the most risk-averse strategy. But law school is a gamble on ourselves, not on a deck of cards. How much $ is worth, say, a 5% increase in biglaw placement?

For example, say I get a sticker offer from NW (there's precedent for this happening), and they have 55% biglaw placement. Vandy sits at 35%. How much money would I need to get from vandy to justify going there instead of NW? (ignore the no-sticker rule for now, this is just a hypothetical)

[PeanutsNJam]

If you guys were able to take out interest-free loans, would you go to a school that gave less money?

My goals are Biglaw/Clerkship if possible.

Also, take Vandy's numbers as an example, they have 35.9% biglaw placement. This means that if I'm in the top 30% of my class, I'd have a very solid shot at biglaw right? So it's not that I have a 30% chance at biglaw period... it's just I need to perform better in school than a T14 kid.

Similarly for clerkships, if it's 9% placement, that means that I'd need to be in the top 10% of my class to have a good shot, right?

This isn't really something you can count on, though, because there's nothing that says the 35.9% that get biglaw are in the top 35.9% of the class. Some of those people may well come to law school with pre-existing connections to the job they ultimately get, so their grades don't matter so much. Others may have such desirable pre-LS work experience, or interview so incredibly well, that they can punch above their weight, so to speak. Sure, you probably have a better shot at biglaw if you're in the top 30% than if you're not (ditto for clerkships in top 10%), but it's not a direct correlation (and I don't get the "I just need to perform better in school than a T14 kid" - that doesn't make any sense to me).

Is the bolded common, or the exception to the rule? I have no idea.

And I just meant if you're not T14 you have to perform better relative to your peers than a T14 student does in order to get a biglaw job. You can get biglaw at median from Harvard, but you'd need to be some seriously excellent shit to get biglaw from BU.

[Ramius]

Just because you carry a solid LSAT doesn't mean you'll rock law school. Consider yourself the average admit to a given school and ask yourself if you'd be okay with that outcome.

I'm nowhere near entitled or arrogant enough to presume that I'm more intelligent than my peers, and that is the most risk-averse strategy. But law school is a gamble on ourselves, not on a deck of cards. How much $ is worth, say, a 5% increase in biglaw placement?

For example, say I get a sticker offer from NW (there's precedent for this happening), and they have 55% biglaw placement. Vandy sits at 35%. How much money would I need to get from vandy to justify going there instead of NW? (ignore the no-sticker rule for now, this is just a hypothetical)

The problem in your estimation is that you're treating law school as an absolute, which it really isn't.

With your goals, I'd bet the house and maximize my chance at the goal because you're likely prohibited from any serious money at a place that can get you to the goals if I felt compelled to go into law. More importantly, I would look at the debt I'd be facing for that and I'd reconsider my goals and my direction and prolly find something better. $300k at NU is equally disgusting compared to $175k at Vandy, WUSTL, etc., which would be an optimistic estimate for you.

[A. Nony Mouse]

If you guys were able to take out interest-free loans, would you go to a school that gave less money?

My goals are Biglaw/Clerkship if possible.

Also, take Vandy's numbers as an example, they have 35.9% biglaw placement. This means that if I'm in the top 30% of my class, I'd have a very solid shot at biglaw right? So it's not that I have a 30% chance at biglaw period... it's just I need to perform better in school than a T14 kid.

Similarly for clerkships, if it's 9% placement, that means that I'd need to be in the top 10% of my class to have a good shot, right?

This isn't really something you can count on, though, because there's nothing that says the 35.9% that get biglaw are in the top 35.9% of the class. Some of those people may well come to law school with pre-existing connections to the job they ultimately get, so their grades don't matter so much. Others may have such desirable pre-LS work experience, or interview so incredibly well, that they can punch above their weight, so to speak. Sure, you probably have a better shot at biglaw if you're in the top 30% than if you're not (ditto for clerkships in top 10%), but it's not a direct correlation (and I don't get the "I just need to perform better in school than a T14 kid" - that doesn't make any sense to me).

Is the bolded common, or the exception to the rule? I have no idea.

And I just meant if you're not T14 you have to perform better relative to your peers than a T14 student does in order to get a biglaw job. You can get biglaw at median from Harvard, but you'd need to be some seriously excellent shit to get biglaw from BU.

I don't know how common those things are, and I don't think you can predict a specific number, but they definitely happen. Conversely, there are people with the right grades who strike out completely, whether from personality or bidding problems or whatever.

I get it now about the T14, but when you're applying and don't know what grades you'll get, it is more like you have a 30% chance, period.

[Johann]

the dude has a 2.4 and previous job was waiting tables/bartending. you need to go wherever you get in if its in a city youd like to live regardless of the price.

[BigZuck]

I think Nony summed it up pretty nicely

I've been surprised how many of my classmates have parents who are federal judges or state supreme court justices, Partners At Law firms, etc. They're more the exception than the rule, but it's not just like one or two kids. Also people with related work experience, military, diverse, attractive, likable, good BSer, etc. Not inconceivable that people like that will be more likely to be hired by firms than a generic candidate with somewhat better grades.

Biglaw/clerkship placement percentage is good to look at to get a general sense at how well schools place into those types of jobs. But it doesn't correllate 1 to 1 to the class percentage you need to be to get those types of jobs. If you're generic (say, K-JD, average interviewer, etc.) your odds at those jobs are probably somewhat lower and if you have some special things going for you, probably somewhat higher. It's really hard to quantify and people aren't good at self-assessment usually (we are all special snowflakes in our own hearts) but I think its better to err on the side of caution when it comes to this stuff, especially when so much money is on the line.

Also, please ignore Johann, I'm seriously starting to think he might not be playing with a full deck.

[Ramius]

Also, please ignore Johann, I'm seriously starting to think he might not be playing with a full deck.

But dude...he has NU at sticker! K&E, here we come

[PeanutsNJam]

bump for updated score. a lil disappointed that I scored below average but fuck it it's over. Does 172 really make any difference over a 170.

[LET'S GET IT]

bump for updated score. a lil disappointed that I scored below average but fuck it it's over. Does 172 really make any difference over a 170.

Yes.

[PeanutsNJam]

and where are you getting these interest free loans from

I missed this. I won't go into much detail but my mom recently came into a great deal of financial luck. She can now easily support sticker T14, and she said she'd rather me go to a T14 and just lend me the money for it than take scholarships at lower ranked schools because she's pretty certain I don't have the gusto to get to the high rank you need to be for biglaw at non-T14 (thanks mom).

I'll of course pay her back and then some (really, for the rest of my life, all my money is my mom's money, she birthed me), but this eliminates the gun-to-my-head and interest rates issue.

Does/should this change any considerations when it comes to choosing? Also I really wanna go to NU, does a 172 help make that happen better. I already checked mylsn and the sample size is just too small. Basically 3/4 people get in, I think 2 of them off the wait-list.