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3.8x/161/URM with good softs, from the NY area. My reserve letter had a handwritten note at the bottom asking me to keep the adcomm updated (apparently not everyone got a note).

What are my chances realistically?

For what it's worth, WL at Penn and Gtown (regular WL, not preferred or anything). In at NU (sticker).

Why not retake in June and see if you can get off of it, or retake and reapply early.

What kind of URM are we talking about here? If AA I don't see how you wouldn't get it in at Columbia. If MA, you need to retake.