Top Law Schools

What is the deal with this tool? Is it as useful as it appears to be?

The results for my numbers (175/3.9) show a much different picture than what LSN shows, which makes me anxious. We know LSN, useful as it is, suffers from a sampling problem, but the LSAC has all the data, so its tool should be much more indicative, yes? Why do we use LSN's usefully granular but imperfect information when this tool exists? Is there something about the LSAC tool I'm missing?

The site itself says "Results for the UGPA/LSAT search are computed using a logistic regression model employing fall 2012 full-time application and admission data as reported by all ABA -approved law schools. The results presented represent a 95 percent probability that an applicant to a particular school for fall 2012 would have had an actual chance of admission within the range indicated." Forgive my, ahem, limited knowledge of statistics but what does this "95 percent probability that an applicant ... would have an actual chance of admission" actually mean? The likelihood bands themselves are about 12% ranges, so is it that there's a 95% chance that your chances lie in that band? And why do we get bands anyway? The LSAC has all the data; assuming their likelihood numbers are just the percent of people with these numbers who were accepted, shouldn't they be able to tell us more precisely? Or are they just being coy?

TYIA for helping solve some of my waiting-for-decisions anxiety questions

Cool and composed humblebrag.

With regards to the tool, ignore it. Use mylsn. Your numbers are perfect so you can relax.

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That's a good question about the LSAC search tool, though. I can't find the post right now, but I seem to recall someone posting a table showing that for the T-14 at least, LSN only represents about 10% of the applicant pool, and it's a disproportionately-strong portion of the pool, since posters on LSN are accepted at a higher rate compared to the overall applicant pool.

I can't see a methodology on the page. 4.0/180 isn't a lock at michigan state so i wouldn't take it to heart.

I don't think LSN is disproportionately strong in any meaningful sense (wrt its predictive power). I think people with lower numbers who throw hail mary apps at T14 schools would easily explain why LSN applicants are "more likely" to get in when looking at just acceptance rates.

Also-- Yale (IIRC), the only T14 school that publishes a decision chart, has 40% acceptance rate of 3.75+/175+ applicants. LSN shows 35%. Of course this is only one data point and LSN has obvious flaws (self reporting, small sample size for some searches to name a couple), but it seems pretty accurate compared to other "predictors."