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hi friends:

2.9/173 (no more retakes left, sadly)

Looks like I'm finally ready to apply, I just have to sort out my ED options. Trying to figure out where to ED, would like to apply for a relatively long shot school (like 10-25% chance) because it seems like if ED gets me in someone I would have gotten in regardless it's a bad idea, right?

But, I have no idea where to ED, although I know UVA is on my list. I've been searching, searching LSN and everything, but can't compile enough data to make an informed decision. I'm looking for opinions, especially given the crazy median drops we've been seeing over the last few weeks. Would like to know other ED options.

For example, it's probably not worth applying ED to NU, because i'd never get it. It's also probably not worth applying ED to chicago, because I'd also never get it. But what about in between there? UVA is a long-shot maybe, right? Any other mid/low t-14 schools worth considering for ED? About where in the rankings do I start being more of a lock if I were to ED? I assume I'd get UMinn for sure, but... is that an outlier, and even with ED i would have no shot at ucla, cornell, vanderbilt, UT, etc?

Thanks for any input. Trying to wrap my head around these median drops, and it's even worse because LSN obviously hasn't been able to take these into account yet, so I'm hoping that real humans with brains that can analyze patterns and predicted outcomes will step up and offer some insight!

Thanks, everybody

RD at NU should be good, ED at UVA, you have a chance.

I would ED NYU as crazy as that sounds. Penn would be second choice. You can ED UVA later.

@twenty: thanks for the reply man. I've been following your posts (uGPA situation, read your PS, etc)... i really hope things work out for you this cycle!

@tiagosplitter: well, you put me in a tough spot. You're definitely one of the most well-respected posters on here, you seem to want to help everyone, and then you give me advice that's clearly ridiculous

Of course, I'm kidding about the ridiculous advice part, but only because I assume that you know full well that it kind of goes against common sense IF one only looks at the admissions numbers AND only listens to the TLS hivemind... but, as I alluded to before, people who have been around for a while and can mentally adapt to new information and sense patterns and do all kinds of things that pure number-based statistics can't are often more valuable resources. I wonder, if it's not too much trouble, would you mind expanding just a bit on your thought process? Are you reacting to the medians or something else?
And then, on top of it all, you put penn as your second choice. For as long as I can remember, penn has been my dream for a lot of reasons, I just assumed by looking at the numbers that I have a .00001% shot, and even that tiny chance is just because I assume there's a chance of a paperwork error or something. Did you put the second because you think I have LESS of a chance there than at higher-ranked and more desirably located NYU? Or because you think that, even though I have less of a shot at NYU, the potential payoffs are higher which makes NYU a better "waste" of a long-shot ED?

I would really appreciate your thoughts on this, as you said something completely... unexpected.

Or anyone else who wants to chime in ! Thanks in advance!

Ok so here's my thought process.

1) Drink and answer questions on TLS. Currently working on a nice Gewurztraminer.

2) The rapid drop in applications changes things. I would have been institutionalized four years ago for saying what I said, laughed at heartily two years ago, but now am only being looked at curiously. You see where this is going. Be aggressive with your ED. A 2.9/173 does not need to be putting in an early ED to UVA unless he has extremely strong reasons for needing to be in Virginia.

3) I know of someone who got into NYU ED with a 2.9 two cycles ago. She had a higher LSAT, and her mom apparently was a legacy, but this was also two cycles ago when there were more applicants.

4) NYU has really good job prospects. If you are looking for BigLaw and are willing to pay sticker somewhere (the likely marriage of a Biglaw desire and a 2.9 GPA) that's as good as you're going to get.

5) Penn also has great job prospects, perhaps even better than NYU's depending on who you ask. But they also offer second round ED from what I hear, so you can ED there later.

6) I don't necessarily think your chances are better at one or the other. NYU continues to maintain an absurdly large class size, Penn might be willing to go a little lower with GPA's overall. For me it comes down to the fact that Penn will let you ED if your ED to NYU doesn't work out.

Dude. You rock, very few people would have taken the time to write out their entire thought process.

I'm going to chew on that for a little. My big stumbling block is that I'm still (just) under some pretty well-established "GPA floors", and will never not be a sub-3.0. It looks like schools are willing to take lower and lower LSAT scores, and lower and lower GPA's, but they still just don't want to dip below their floors. I've seen a FEW 2.x applicants get in NYU, Penn, and other mid-t14 schools, but in such small numbers (like, <1 a cycle) that they are still very much outliers and there's most likely some extra 'something' (crazy soft or something, or the one who got in penn last cycle with a 2.x but had a HYP undergrad).

Thanks again to both twentypercentmore and tiagosplitter

and, of course, any other thoughts welcome, especially if they disagree with one or both of the above