mk87 wrote:First of all, thank you TLS posters who encouraged him to suck it up and give the LSAT a final go. He was able to raise his schore from a 163 to a 174, and could not be more thrilled.
That's awesome! Please encourage him to come back and post his retake success story when next cycle is finished. It helps the cause if we have a good number of real success stories to share with folks resistant to retaking.
-What are his chances at H Y and S?
Presuming no glaring weaknesses in his app (which this cycle's results appear to confirm) and a decent interview with one of the Harvard admissions people, his chances for H are quite strong. Everyone with numbers in his immediate range on LSN got into H last cycle, and the applicant pool is only going to contract further next year, making his numbers an even more valuable commodity. And, of course, it sounds like the rest of his app will be a plus for him.
As others have already said, Y and S are very unpredictable. Crucially for Y, he's
above rather than
at the LSAT median. If he had a 173, he would essentially have no shot at all. Based strictly on his numbers, his chances at Y are around 30-35%. If the rest of his app is as strong for him at Y as it was with Penn and UCLA, his chances will be better. Recommendations are very important at Y (and almost nowhere else, except S and Berkeley). If those are particularly strong (two exceptional LORs are better than those same two LORs plus one or two less exceptional LORs, by the way), that will be something else significantly in his favor. It goes without saying that the PS and the 250 have to be outstanding. Despite S's much lower medians, his chances for outright acceptance there are about the same as they are at Y. However, his odds of being WL'd instead of rejected outright are considerably higher at S than at Y, and S has had decent movement on the WL in some years.
I've read that H Y and S give need-based rather than merit-based scholarships. Can anyone tell me a little more about them? How low does your income need to be? Do people ever share how much they are offered from these schools?
The need-based aid from all three can be very generous. How much he qualifies for will depend upon his total assets and his age (which will determine how much his family's financial assets figure into the calculations). Does he have substantial savings from his job? You're basically required to apply most of your financial assets toward the cost of law school. If he's not that far from having no savings that he can apply toward tuition, then he could get very significant need-based scholarship money (again, depending upon age and parental wealth). Need is reevaluated each year, so if he ends up with nothing left for his 2L year, he could get a much bigger grant then than he did for his 1L year.
-What are his chances at UChicago, Berkeley, and Northwestern?
Chicago is a bit strange. People with much lower numbers get in, but a good number of people in his range also get waitlisted. With Chicago, it's not exactly the case that your odds of outright acceptance increase with your numbers in linear fashion. Some pockets of higher-number combinations seem disfavored over some lower-number combinations, for reasons I can't discern.
Berkeley is one of the three schools where numbers are least predictive of admissions outcomes (the other two being Y and S). They routinely reject people with his numbers and with higher numbers. His odds there are probably ~67%. Also bear in mind that Berkeley is quite stingy with scholarship money relative to most other top schools.
He's essentially a lock at NU by regular decision, almost assuredly with their $150K scholarship. If he applied ED -- which comes with the $150K grant at NU -- he would get it. That's attractive, but I wouldn't tie myself to an ED app at Northwestern with those numbers.
--Do you think he'll get substantial scholarship offerings?
Yes. As others have said, scholarships are an unpredictable business. No set of numbers guarantees you anything (except those numbers essentially guarantee an ED acceptance and $150K scholarship at NU). But with his numbers, he will almost certainly pick up a full ride or two in the lower T14 (the non-YHSCCN T14), possibly more, and he'll be in the running for big money at CCN as well.
-I wouldn't be thrilled to live in Boston or New Haven for 3 years (though I would be thrilled for him to go to those schools). What do you think is a reasonable amount of money from schools ranked 4-7 or 7-12 to justify turning down a HYS?
It really depends upon his goals. If he's gunning strictly for BigLaw, then it would not be unreasonable to take a full scholarship from any of the T13 over sticker at YHS. (I'd be much more hesitant with GULC, personally.) For CCN and P, I think passing up a full scholarship for YHS at sticker when your sole goal is BigLaw is actually the unreasonable move. All of these schools have terrific BigLaw placement power, and life with $185-215K less debt at the start of repayment (assuming sticker at YHS) would make for a much happier and less stressful existence. (By the way, I see that you wrote "7-12," but just know that Cornell places just as well in BigLaw as almost all of the other schools in the lower T13. Even if you guys would never live in Ithaca, he should still apply just to possibly have a huge scholarship as a bargaining chip with other schools.)
On the other hand, if he has more than a passing interest in high-end public interest work (ACLU, HRW, etc.), elite government jobs (DOJ, SEC, etc.), federal clerkships, or legal academia, YHS (especially Y) will provide anywhere from a strong to overwhelming advantage over any other schools. YHS also have the best loan repayment assistance programs, meaning that if he does end up taking lower-paying work, the schools will pay back most or all of his loans over a 10-year period. With Yale's LRAP (COAP), you don't even have to work as a lawyer at all to participate in the program. The LRAPs at CCN will be very good but not as amazing as at YHS, and the lower T14 will range from good to not really that good (too many restrictions and conditions).
I hope this is helpful!
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As for needbased at HYS: it can range up to an extremely generous: $28-30K/year for individuals (and around $35K for families). Obviously this is for EFC = 0, very low income people with prior debt.
Hey jbagelboy, things don't have to be quite that dire in order to get huge scholarships.

YLS will give me more than $100K during my time here, and I came to law school with zero debt. I'm old enough that my family's finances have no impact, and my PI-oriented work before law school didn't allow for both enjoying life and accumulating significant savings together (so I largely chose the former).