Hi everyone:
First, thanks for the replies. I'll take these posts one at a time!
@Tiago: Forgive me, but I assumed based on mylsn that NU and GULC were pretty much faaar reaches. I see that NU gives me the best shot percentage-wise, but I assumed that a large chunk of them were in because of work experience. I'm still seeing... not good odds on mylsn, but you're also a very well respected poster, so if you have information that I don't, please enlighten me! I'm also curious as to why you chose these, and left out some peer schools. For example, mylsn seems to indicate that I have a better chance at cornell than georgetown. I realize that sample sizes are small with splitters, so I'm interested in your thoughts.
@flynn: well... for the most part, i have been in school. My first degree (religious studies) turned out to be impractical

so I went to graduate school, for the much more practical master's in religious studies. Super smart move. During this time, I've tried and failed to start 3 different small businesses (nothing very awesome... rented out a shop in the city and repaired cars for a while, had a small business making revolver accessories, sold about $100 worth of stuff in six months, and tried a custom bicycle company that still hasn't sold a single bike. Not too proud of these, but in my defense they weren't "real" tries as much as they were designed to make even some money while I was living on loans for school). I assume neither of these constitutes a decent soft or work experience.
@sinfiery: My long term goal is not biglaw, but it'd be nice to have it as an option for a year or two to get my loans down. This is not a requirement, however. A big part of the problem is that I'm a california man, with strong ties to the state (have a son in central california, family, fiance, etc). my goals all revolve around working in california, but what are my choices as far as decent schools? Stanford, Cal, UCLA, USC. None of which are splitter friendly, and while I would literally pay double sticker for any of these schools, i'm guessing that I'm locked out of all of them.
My research seems to indicate that, for california, UVA has the lowest placement numbers. Some of that may be self selection, but it's also (anecdotally) true that UVA has the least amount of prestige/name recognition/clout in california. In terms of the t-14, I would say UVA is my last choice. I am ABSOLUTELY going to apply, but I'm a little wary of ed-ing since it is so low on my list. If I have a non-negligible shot at another t-14, I would much rather apply elsewhere first. Of course, if I basically have no shot at any other t-14, i may end up having to ED uva. My feeling is that outside of the t-14, I'd be looking at a good chance of living where I go to school, and, as i mentioned above, all of the "regional" schools that may be worth going to at all in my target area don't seem likely to accept me. Given this, does this change your advice?
@Al: While this would be a great option, it seems unlikely with my GPA, right? Especially in california? I have the feeling that any school worth going to in california will lock me out, and that even the crap schools won't want my lsat score enough to overlook my gpa for a full ride. Paying any money for any regional school in this market seems pretty dangerous, so unless you know something about what kinds of candidates are potential full ride recipients (in which case, please enlighten me!), this doesn't seem to be something to count on, unfortunately.
@Br3v: This is the conventional wisdom, and I like to think it's true. But there's gotta be SOME pause associated with a 5 point drop, right? I don't know, maybe it's just me, but I'd be more inclined to admit a 168/170/172 than a 172/170/168, all else being equal. An increase seems to indicate maturity, getting better at the lsat, growth, etc. whereas a decrease doesn't necessarily but could indicate laziness, lack of studying, waning lack of interest in the process, etc.
And, some schools average, correct? Or do they all just take high scores now, at least in practice? Mostly I'm just freaking about dropping, and if enough people tell me that I should consider myself as having a 173, I will do so and feel a LOT better.
So, thanks again for the responses thus far. I'm still interested in hearing any thoughts. What are my best options, especially regarding california placement, for this cycle? Do I have any reach schools (like, greater than, say, 25% chance) within the t-14?
thanks!