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hypo

Your best shot is Harvard(30% chance?). You're out at Y/S.

http://www.mylsn.info/dispresults.php

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Sorry I guess the link didn't work. Just plug your numbers into that site and you'll see what I mean. Y/S have really small class sizes unlike H so they can be really picky. I'm not saying you shouldn't apply b/c who knows what may happen since your numbers are very good, but I prefer to give you more cautious advice so you don't expect too much.

If you look at just this and last cycle, everyone with your numbers is in at Harvard.

http://myLSN.info/r0dxl4

This guy is an exact numbers twin if you want to follow his cycle

http://lawschoolnumbers.com/Starships/jd

Harvard's gonna try to hold on tight to that 173 median. You are below median GPA but above 25%. I think you have a good chance there this cycle. Hurry up and send your app in.

Your numbers indicate in everywhere else below H. Send apps to Y/S, but don't expect anything but a rejection.

sinfiery wrote:Harvard's gonna try to hold on tight to that 173 median. You are below median GPA but above 25%. I think you have a good chance there this cycle. Hurry up and send your app in.

Your numbers indicate in everywhere else below H. Send apps to Y/S, but don't expect anything but a rejection.

Likely waitlisted at Stanford, I'd be surprised if he got flat out rejected this cycle.

gottago wrote:no softs TLS would find impressive
out @ HY? gpa too low (below median)

Almost certainly out at Y. Very likely out at S, though you could ride the WL for a while. Still worth applying to both.

Your chances at H will be strong this cycle if you get your app in soon. This is the best cycle for you to apply to H in quite a while. Like others have said, the fact that they are working to maintain their 173 median and giant class size in the face of steeply declining app numbers bodes well for you. Get a move on.

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The GPA is very good, but in the case of HYS, yeah, it's holding you back. 175 will certainly only help.

You're around 50% at H and maybe 10% at Y.

I would say your chances are good for H considering the decrease in applications, but it's not a lock unless you have some bright softs or great recommendations.

OP's odds are definitely better than 50% for H. Every LSN applicant with OP's numbers was accepted last cycle, and numbers are only tighter for H this year. H does not have the luxury of turning down these numbers in this environment if it wants to maintain the 173 median. On the other hand, odds are much closer to 0% than 10% for Y, where being below the GPA median and at rather than above the LSAT median is a killer.

Ti Malice wrote:OP's odds are definitely better than 50% for H. Every LSN applicant with OP's numbers was accepted last cycle, and numbers are only tighter for H this year. H does not have the luxury of turning down these numbers in this environment if it wants to maintain the 173 median. On the other hand, odds are much closer to 0% than 10% for Y, where being below the GPA median and at rather than above the LSAT median is a killer.

See: http://myLSN.info/khyxqz

Odds go up to 54% if you include only 2010 and 2011 & 64% if it's only 2011.

Your search parameters are far too wide. You should never include numbers at, below, and above the LSAT median in the same search. The GPA span is too large as well. You get more results this way, but they're inherently too inaccurate for a single applicant to be as useful as a narrower search with fewer examples. Furthermore, since the overall number of applicants will be down more than 30% versus two years ago -- with greater declines among high-scorers specifically -- the only cycle that holds much predictive value for this one is the last.

Ti Malice wrote:Your search parameters are far too wide. You should never include numbers at, below, and above the LSAT median in the same search. The GPA span is too large as well. You get more results this way, but they're inherently too inaccurate for a single applicant to be as useful as a narrower search with fewer examples. Furthermore, since the overall number of applicants will be down more than 30% versus two years ago -- with greater declines among high-scorers specifically -- the only cycle that holds much predictive value for this one is the last.

DAT Statistical Power, son.

Also, if you narrow the parameters you still only get around 40-50%
http://myLSN.info/vfjtae

I agree with you that the decrease in applications will work in his/her favor, but I wouldn't consider him/her a lock.

A search that includes a 172 when the median is 173 doesn't have greater statistical power than a test that leaves it out. Those numbers are miles apart for admissions purposes. Just sayin'.

Also, see the last part of my earlier post. You're including the most competitive cycle in the era of non-averaged LSAT scores in your last search, and the 2010-11 doesn't have much place there either. See: http://myLSN.info/r0dxl4.

I agree with you that he's not a lock, but if HLS plans to retain its 173 median (and class size), simple math dictates that they can't look too critically at applicants with his numbers this cycle.

You have H this cycle. If you are dead set on YS or bust, then retake. Otherwise, enjoy H.

nebula666 wrote:You have H this cycle. If you are dead set on YS or bust, then retake. Otherwise, enjoy H.

Not sure if serious. He has a below median GPA and a median LSAT. He said he has no impressive softs. Really quite far from a lock.

banjo wrote:

nebula666 wrote:You have H this cycle. If you are dead set on YS or bust, then retake. Otherwise, enjoy H.

Not sure if serious. He has a below median GPA and a median LSAT. He said he has no impressive softs. Really quite far from a lock.

Once again, every single applicant with his numbers was accepted last cycle and so far this cycle.

nebula666 wrote:

banjo wrote:

nebula666 wrote:You have H this cycle. If you are dead set on YS or bust, then retake. Otherwise, enjoy H.

Not sure if serious. He has a below median GPA and a median LSAT. He said he has no impressive softs. Really quite far from a lock.

Once again, every single applicant with his numbers was accepted last cycle and so far this cycle.

Harvard hasn't rejected or waitlisted anyone yet this cycle, so we're really talking about 4 people in the 173-173 3.83-3.87 range from one cycle. I think these are the people:

http://lawschoolnumbers.com/deluxe2012/jd
http://lawschoolnumbers.com/beeveekay
http://lawschoolnumbers.com/ew3721
http://lawschoolnumbers.com/ellpaul

Two ivy undergrads, one URM, so not very representative. If you widen the range even a little bit, things start to look different: http://myLSN.info/68rnj4.

This cycle, there's a 178/3.83 who submitted early, interviewed in November, and still hasn't heard back, while a 170/3.76 non-URM got in straight out of undergrad with supposedly average softs. I only mention the latter to point out that the new interview makes Harvard a lot less predictable.

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gottago wrote:damn a 3.85 sucks now? being below HYS's gpa median hurts a lot, even if >25% and just a few points below?

would gpa AT median & 75% LSAT be better?

A 3.85 is very good. Do not stress. You have a great shot at Harvard. Obviously any increase in your GPA/LSAT is better, but at your level there's not point in stressing about the LSAT and just focus on getting 4.0s if you're still in school.

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gottago wrote:not stressing, title is hypo.

http://top-law-schools.com/forums/viewt ... 9&t=170051

gottago wrote:not stressing, title is hypo. Asking which of those 2 numbers is keeping me down @ HYS: GPA or LSAT

if GPA, hard to believe a few hundredths from the median makes that big of a difference.

if LSAT, it's more easily raised

It's your GPA

Your LSAT is at median, your GPA is not. I am in a similar situation. It sucks.