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Your GPA is high enough you should get a few T14s without ED. Very good chances at basically all of the schools 7 and down, especially NU, I don't think you should limit yourself to one of them at sticker. With just two acceptances you stand a good chance at leveraging a scholarship. Vastly preferable to attending a school at sticker, getting a quarter mil debt with a 50% shot at biglaw

http://myLSN.info/608jpt

Looks like you have a 40% chance at Penn, UVA, and 55% chance at Michigan, Duke, and Northwestern.

I would ED to NYU because you'll probably get into at least 1-2 of Penn, UVA, Michigan, Duke, and Northwestern during RD.

Also, I'm not sure how your criminal record will play into your cycle. You should probably discuss it in an addendum. If you under perform this cycle, it's probably because of your criminal record and you might be well served taking 1-2 more years off to distance yourself from your disciplinary issues in college.

ED at Michigan requires summer start. Just so you're aware.

Thank you all for your well-reasoned, objective responses.

This is why I love this website.

I voted for Penn. I worry that posters are being overly optimistic about your chances. With your C&F issues (pattern of a substance abuse problem is a huge red flag), schools are going to worry that you'll have trouble passing the bar. They are more concerned with that rate than their median LSAT. Being 2 years away from those issues is not long at all.

The first thing I'd do is talk to a C&F lawyer in the state you want to practice to be sure that LS is a worthwhile investment. After that...

Normally, I think Michigan would be somewhat safe RD. With your issues, though, I'm not so sure. I don't think you have a shot at NYU ED regardless of C&F. Last year they weren't willing, even ED-->RD, to go below 3.5/171. That leaves Penn. Again, decent RD shot but with those C&F issues, I'd ED. Great school, great job prospects.

I think an ED to NYU is probably wasted. Only ED there if you are okay with RD. Basically it'll be your ultimate reach.

Then choose one of Penn, Mich, UVA, etc and ED there. Unless you are willing to go to more than a few places and are willing to roll the dice with RD.

Penn.