How conservative is LSAT predictor? Forum

[mmk33]

I am taking the test on Oct 1. I have an undergrad GPA of 3.73, a Phd (with a 4.0), and my PT range has been 167-174. I'm looking to attend either UVa or Duke, and trying to figure out where I need to hit to not have to retake in December, but I don't know how to interpret the "Consider" and "Strong Consider" options. Any thoughts? I'm hoping that as long as I hit 168/169 I'll be okay, but obviously I'm gunning for 170+.

[mmk33]

Target admit rates, based on how LSP renders predictions:
When LSP said Admit: >= 87%
When LSP said Strong Consider: ~ 69%
When LSP said Consider: ~ 50%
When LSP said Weak Consider: ~ 31%
When LSP said Deny: <= 13%

Based on the 33,500+ LSN decisions from the 2008-09 admission cycle:
When LSP said Admit, 8402 instances: 87.0%, +0.0%
When LSP said Strong Consider, 4842 instances: 78.0%, +9.0%
When LSP said Consider, 10066 instances: 50.6%, +0.6%
When LSP said Weak Consider, 3646 instances: 22.8%, -8.2%
When LSP said Deny, 6754 instances: 10.0%, -3.0%

I found this on their site, which makes sense: "Consider" is intended as a 50/50 situation, whereas "Strong Consider" is actually a relatively high likelihood (70-80%). Does anyone have any suggestions about my profile and the likelihood of UVA or Duke?

[crumpetsandtea]

No one can tell you anything useful until you have a real LSAT score. The difference between 167 and 174 is extreme. 3.7/174 will get you into most T14s, many with $$$. 167/3.7 and you'll be lucky to get into a handful of T14s, and likely will be shut out of the T10.

[Seneca]

Try LSN to see how cycles played out for people with numbers in your range - those are the numbers LSP uses anyway, and might be a more informative tool for you at this stage as you're deciding where to apply.

[SisterRayVU]

Look at the most current cycle's graph. The scores are obviously self reported and the people who know about these websites are going to be amongst the people who take LS somewhat seriously. It'll probably be just a little bit on the conservative side, but imo it seems like a good tool. Yet there are multiple people who were 'Deny' on LSP that got in to their schools.