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October 2015 Curve Prediction
Posted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:28 pm
by T14-->BigLaw
I know we are all anxious to get our scores back. Curve predictions, anyone?
Re: October 2015 Curve Prediction
Posted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:50 pm
by Monkey D Luffy
Can anyone please explain how the curve works?
Re: October 2015 Curve Prediction
Posted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:58 pm
by Petrichor
-11
Re: October 2015 Curve Prediction
Posted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:16 pm
by T14-->BigLaw
FYI, there has never been a 101 question exam with -10 (-11+)
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Posted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:19 pm
by PatriotP74
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Posted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 11:16 pm
by McJimJam
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Re: October 2015 Curve Prediction
Posted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 11:34 pm
by ffamran
What do these numbers (-9, -10, -11...) refer to?
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Posted: Sat Oct 03, 2015 11:35 pm
by McJimJam
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Re: October 2015 Curve Prediction
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2015 12:16 am
by 87mm
Please let it be a -13 curve. with 168 being ~-16!
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Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2015 11:08 am
by gamerish
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Re: October 2015 Curve Prediction
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2015 11:09 am
by nlee10
gamerish wrote:Does anyone even remember how many questions there were?
I think it was
LG: 23
LR1: 25
LR2: 26
I don't remember how many questions RC though. 27?
RC was 27 so 101.
Someone mentioned how there has never been a -10 on a 101 Q test so unless LSAC to start breaking trends I think the curve will be a -11.
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Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2015 11:11 am
by gamerish
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Re: October 2015 Curve Prediction
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2015 11:14 am
by nlee10
You can blame OP 4th post from top. didn't bother to confirm. Ty tho.
Re: October 2015 Curve Prediction
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2015 10:29 pm
by splittermcsplit88
How accurately has testtakers' sentiments been matched with the actual curve in the past?
Re: October 2015 Curve Prediction
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2015 11:04 pm
by bnssweeney
A -8 curve is my nightmare.
Re: October 2015 Curve Prediction
Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2015 1:35 am
by YungFisherman
splittermcsplit88 wrote:How accurately has testtakers' sentiments been matched with the actual curve in the past?
This
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Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2015 1:42 am
by Mint-Berry_Crunch
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Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2015 1:44 am
by mornincounselor
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Re: October 2015 Curve Prediction
Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:31 am
by mist4bison
mornincounselor wrote:I think we tend to be optimistic. I don't recall users ever underestimating in these polls.
Ha. I'm such a pessimistic person. I'm convinced it's -8/9.
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Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:34 am
by McJimJam
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Re: October 2015 Curve Prediction
Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:39 am
by mist4bison
McJimJam wrote:mist4bison wrote:mornincounselor wrote:I think we tend to be optimistic. I don't recall users ever underestimating in these polls.
Ha. I'm such a pessimistic person. I'm convinced it's -8/9.
Haha exactly my thoughts, this poll honestly surprises me. I'd gladly take a -11 curve though.
100% agreed. -11 curve would be fantastic and I really, really hope my pessimistic curve prediction is wrong. haha. But at least you and I won't be as disappointed if we're right!
Re: October 2015 Curve Prediction
Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:48 am
by lymenheimer
YungFisherman wrote:splittermcsplit88 wrote:How accurately has testtakers' sentiments been matched with the actual curve in the past?
This
Don't put anything to it. It's just a fun exercise in neuroticism. There's no way to really guess what the curve will be other than picking out of the common curve numbers (9-12). Some people get lucky with their guess, others don't. Doesn't matter how hard the test felt or the common sentiment. The curve will be what the curve will be.
Sincerely,
IGotScrewedByJune'sCurve
P.S. That name taken out of context could be very strange.
Re: October 2015 Curve Prediction
Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:56 am
by cub1014
I feel I have to quote the great Mike Spivey. This might be a little crazy, but I noticed when comparing his blog posts from June and October that for the October version, which was mostly copy pasted he added the additional sentence: "And this one seems to have been particularly difficult based on early feedback." My optimism for the curve is a combination of that sentiment and my humble opinion that game 3 of this test was more difficult than game 4 of June, plus there being 101 questions. So, I strongly believe this test will be a -11, one point better than in June.
Re: October 2015 Curve Prediction
Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:57 am
by cub1014
Plus we're getting fairly close to a normal distribution. The statistics gods may be trying to tell us something... LOL
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Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:12 pm
by gamerish
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