PT35,S1,Q23
Posted: Fri Dec 26, 2014 10:54 am
This question killed me. Can someone please explain the incorrect answer choices, specifically D? Not fully comprehending that answer choice.TIA
Yeah, this was a tough question.
As is normally the case, I think you'll find this easier to deal with by concentrating on what the argument did wrong; in other words, why the right answer is right. We'll start there.
This argument is exactly the same as one that says: "Some dummies claim that the fastest way from the top of the Empire State building down to 5th Ave is a quick leap over the fence around the observation deck. However, such a leap would kill you, so that cannot be the fastest way down."
Obviously, whether or not the suggested leads to death has no bearing whatsoever on how fast the route is. Death is a convincing argument against that being the safest route, or the funnest route, or the preferred route, but it just cannot tell us whether it's the fastest route.
In the same way, that the statisticians' suggestion would lead to death does not argue against whether it is or isn't the surest way to increase your belief set correctness. Here again, the possibility of death is a persuasive stance against the preferability of their suggestion, but it simply doesn't speak to whether or not the suggestion offers the surest way to correctness.
Maybe the simplest way of seeing why (D) is incorrect is to notice that the arguer made no mention whatsoever of what kinds of beliefs we need in order to survive. So she hasn't assumed that we need to accept some beliefs "related to survival" any more than she's assumed we need to accept some beliefs "related to the Philadelphia Eagles." (D) is not a necessary assumption of the argument and does not therefore describe a way in which the argument is flawed.
I hope this helps; I'd be happy to discuss it further if you'd like.