Started from 163, what are my chances of getting 175? Forum

[jasonjerk123]

This is my first time experiencing LSAT, I just did two timed tests at home, 2007 june pt and 2004 june pt, both of which scored -18, somewhere roughly 163 I guess.
2007:
RC: -4
LG: -3
LR: -11

2004:
RC: -4
LG: -2
LR: -12

I can see LR is my biggest problem and the same goes to RC, I'm thinking about scoring somewhere near 175 next Feb, what are my chances? any suggestions on how I might improve? Thanks!

[Jeffort]

It's possible with decent chances of being within your true range given that you started cold at 163, but no guarantee you yourself can or will get all the way there so cannot put a probability on it. You just have to prep really hard and well and see how high you can pull it up with a lot of effort over time dedicated to the test. That is the only way to figure out your chances, try to do it and see how close you can get by trying your best and not giving up easily. The 170s, especially high 175+s are fickle, elusive, very unforgiving scores that are really extra hard to get your hands wrapped all the way around. I'd say your chances of at least scoring 170+ are pretty high with serious prep given your starting score, but cannot ever put high odds of anyone hitting 175+ based on a starting score unless it is a legit 170+. That doesn't mean any odds against it, just have no basis to make positive odds for it either.

Now that you have established your goal, get started with a good prep plan and routine right away so you can start making progress. Figure out a good prep plan, get good prep resources, make a study plan, begin preparing according to study plan. Report back with questions and updates as needed.

[jasonjerk123]

Now that you have established your goal, get started with a good prep plan and routine right away so you can start making progress. Figure out a good prep plan, get good prep resources, make a study plan, begin preparing according to study plan. Report back with questions and updates as needed.

Thank you for your advice! Start right away!

[JJ123]

Study LR a bunch, get to perfect on logic games, and see what happens.

[The LSAT Trainer]

Objectively speaking, your chances are about one in two hundred.

It may be that you have some natural aptitude that makes it easier for you than it is for others to get better at this exam, but do keep in mind that your competition, especially at the top, is quite tough. My advice, if you are serious about working toward that sort of score, is to think of your prep in terms of working smarter, and working harder, than 199 out of every 200 test takers.

[Nova]

No one can predict your chances of scoring in the 99th percentile.

Scoring in the 90th percentile cold is really good though.

I would recommend getting the materials in noodley's guide (in the stickies).

[Sourrudedude]

As far as I'm concerned, cold diagnostic tests mean next to nothing. Read some books, take another PT, and judge from there. For what it's worth, my diagnostic was 160 and I got a 175+. It's like losing weight, as soon as you start working out, the pounds fall off. But then progress stalls and you might even plateau. It's the same for the LSAT, as soon as you learn what the different sections are all about and get the basic strategies, you can improve your score by 10+ points from your diagnostic.

[KingofSplitters55]

Objectively speaking, your chances are about one in two hundred.

It may be that you have some natural aptitude that makes it easier for you than it is for others to get better at this exam, but do keep in mind that your competition, especially at the top, is quite tough. My advice, if you are serious about working toward that sort of score, is to think of your prep in terms of working smarter, and working harder, than 199 out of every 200 test takers.

Good advice, but as a person who studied probability, let me just say that the odds are incorrect and the methodology by which you calculated the odds are incorrect as well.

Yes, if you select a random test taker from a pool of 200 test takers, assuming it is a representative sample, it is most likely that one of them will be a 99.5th percentile scorer or above (though remember this is only the pluralistic probability - there is a probability, although miniscule, that all 200 are somehow 99.5th percentile scorers for example).

Rather, we are talking about the probability of him being able to reach the 99.5th percentile, given a certain amount of time, and assuming various studying regimens, assuming he already has a score of 163 / whatever percentile that is. Of course we also then have to take into account natural variance of LSAT scores with no change in conditions.

Just some food for thought - that brought out the probability nerd in me haha.

[The LSAT Trainer]

Yes, I do realize it was overly simplistic

[Otunga]

Objectively speaking, your chances are about one in two hundred.

It may be that you have some natural aptitude that makes it easier for you than it is for others to get better at this exam, but do keep in mind that your competition, especially at the top, is quite tough. My advice, if you are serious about working toward that sort of score, is to think of your prep in terms of working smarter, and working harder, than 199 out of every 200 test takers.

Good advice, but as a person who studied probability, let me just say that the odds are incorrect and the methodology by which you calculated the odds are incorrect as well.

Yes, if you select a random test taker from a pool of 200 test takers, assuming it is a representative sample, it is most likely that one of them will be a 99.5th percentile scorer or above (though remember this is only the pluralistic probability - there is a probability, although miniscule, that all 200 are somehow 99.5th percentile scorers for example).

Rather, we are talking about the probability of him being able to reach the 99.5th percentile, given a certain amount of time, and assuming various studying regimens, assuming he already has a score of 163 / whatever percentile that is. Of course we also then have to take into account natural variance of LSAT scores with no change in conditions.

Just some food for thought - that brought out the probability nerd in me haha.

This has the potential to become a RC passage on probability.

[banjo]

I went from a 164 my first time (probably much lower diagnostic) to a 176 on my next attempt. It took about two months' dedicated prep. It's doable.

Take as much time as you need to do well on the LSAT. You don't have the luxury of taking 1L exams when you're ready, or taking the bar when you're ready, or appearing in Court only when you're ready (at least not without a good reason).

[bp shinners]

Non-0. So focus on improving, but don't worry about the score you end up at! Just get better with each session - there's a good chance you can work your way into the mid-170s.