Regression Predictions
Posted: Fri May 28, 2010 7:03 pm
I ran a regression on my PTs over time, and the trend predicts a 172 come test day. Anyone interested enough to compare?
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Once you have a standard error calculated you don't have to think about degrees of freedom anymore.jpSartre wrote:2.6. It's been a while since econ stats... does that mean 172 +/- 2.6, are there degrees of freedom involved or am I confusing topics entirely?
Haha, understandable. I appreciate the explanation.voice of reason wrote:Once you have a standard error calculated you don't have to think about degrees of freedom anymore.jpSartre wrote:2.6. It's been a while since econ stats... does that mean 172 +/- 2.6, are there degrees of freedom involved or am I confusing topics entirely?
It means the 95% confidence interval for the predicted score on your next practice test is 167 to 177 (172 +/- 2.6*1.96). In other words, if 100 people had the same practice record as you, then 95 of them would get a score in the range of 167 to 177 on the next test.
In practice the band may be narrower than that, because the test is designed to be a reliable measure of latent ability. To be sure I'd have to think more carefully about the statistical theory than I want to on a Friday night.