PT 58 LR (Section 1; 18) Forum

[boomer07]

Although I understand why C is correct, I don't see what is wrong with D. I'm wracking my brains with this question and can;t figure it out. If someone would be willing to explain this I would appreciate it tremendously.

[KaplanLSATInstructor]

The problem with (D) is that the author doesn't define or suggest a direct correlation between records reliability and safety. In other words, he doesn't say that the more reliable your records are, the safer your planes are.

Instead, the author says: if you have reliable records, your safer than if you don't have reliable records.

To illustrate, consider four sample airlines:
Airline A: 25-year records, 95% reliable. Safety rating: 90%
Airline B: 20-year records, 90% reliable. Safety rating: 95%
Airline C: 2-year records, 25% reliable. Safety rating: 75%
Airline D: 1-year records, 20% reliable. Saftey rating 80%

This is consistent with the author's point: those airlines (A and B) with the reliable records are safer than those (C and D) with the less reliable records. However, notice that the safest airline has less reliability from slight less extensive records. Thus, the author doesn't necessarily feel that the safest airline has the MOST reliable records.

I hope this helps.

- Chris

[boomer07]

Thank you Chris! You did an excellent job explaining that and it makes sense...I am just not sure that I would pick up on that distinction on test day. Although I did not originally select A, I also did not rule it out immediately. So, would you mind explaining why answer choice A is incorrect as well? Also, C did not immediately stand out to me because it was not what I was expecting the correct answer to look like as it seems too obvious. So to make sure that I understand correctly, would you mind also explaining why C is the correct answer? Thanks again Chris for your help!

[KaplanLSATInstructor]

Sure.

(A) is off because it discusses pure numbers instead of rates. In other words, let's say a major airline did have just as many accidents as a low-fare airline: 10 accidents. If the major airline had 100,000 flights and the low-fare airline only had 10,000 flights, that's a much better record for the major airline.

The author doesn't need to address pure numbers -- in fact, it wouldn't be fair to do so. Better to stick with the rates.

(C) exposes the scope shift in the argument. The author claims that major airlines have long-standing records with reliable safety information. However, the author confuses having these long-standing records with the concept of actually being safe. Just because the airlines have the records, that doesn't mean they're actually safe. What if those long-standing records show a 60% accident rating? I wouldn't get on those planes.

So, the author assumes the records indicate the airlines are safe, thus (as (C) says) ignoring the possibility that the records indicate the airlines are actually UNsafe.

HTH

- Chris