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I know this has been discussed ad nauseum, but I can't ever seem to find solid answers when I come across this topic - it seems to be one of those blind leading the blind things.

Obviously big law is never a given, but for those who get it and do not make partner, what kind of career path and salary trajectory can one expect? Does the average ex-big law lawyer ever get back above 200-300k a year? Do some just keep lateraling to other big law firms and starting the whole thing over? And how common is in-house and boutique work, and does it ever approach big law money over the course of a career?

I'll hang up and listen.

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but for those who get it and do not make partner, what kind of career path and salary trajectory can one expect? Does the average ex-big law lawyer ever get back above 200-300k a year? Do some just keep lateraling to other big law firms and starting the whole thing over? And how common is in-house and boutique work, and does it ever approach big law money over the course of a career?

It runs the gambit. Some possibilities:

1. Making partner at another large firm after a lateral move (Usually a lower ranked firm with slightly lower profits per partner)
2. Making partner at a midsize or boutique firm after a move (ditto)
3. In house work (can pay anywhere from 50k [in-house insurance defense] to $1M+ [general counsel of a major corporation])
4. Government work (60-120k or so for state, 100-150k for the feds)
6. Go solo, start a firm with a friend (operating at a loss to sky's the limit)

Bottom line: you can't "expect" any particular salary. Does the "average" ex-biglaw person ever get back above 200k a year? Who knows? I imagine with inflation over the next 30 years, most biglaw associates today will eventually make 200k.