The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

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mck87

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by mck87 » Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:01 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 10:55 am
mck87 wrote:
Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:42 pm
Hi, I just found out my NY bar exam results this morning and I was so excited to find out that I had passed.

My total score was 335 and my MBE score was 173.3. How would that break down? Appreciate your help in understanding what the scores mean!

Thanks :)

Congratulations on passing the J20 NY bar exam! Based on your scaled MBE score of 173.3, your estimated raw MBE score was about 91% correct. This places you in the 98.4% percentile for the MBE. This means that 1.6% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 173.3 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

FYI, of the 6,500+ examinees who have sent me their scores over the years, only 35 have scored higher than you.

Based on a total score of 335, your written score was 161.7, which would have placed you in the 88.8% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 11.2% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT). Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, based on the MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 93.6% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 335 (meaning that 6.4% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

If you don’t mind a brief follow-up question, can you let me know what part of your bar review you found most useful/helpful.
Hi, thanks for your breakdown! I'm not surprised that I was a little lower on the essays - I completely botched one of the MEE's. I think my most useful technique was making my own flashcards (I didn't really review them that much, but having to write them out really made me focus). I also did 90% of Themis' course.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by JoeSeperac » Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:04 am

jjcorvino wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 4:10 pm
Hi Joe, your estimator was spot on. I put in my information and it guessed my score exactly (weird as hell).

Took New York, my total score was 336 and my scaled score was 173.3. Could you verify the percentile?

Thanks!

Congratulations on passing the J20 NY bar exam. Based on your scaled MBE score of 173.3, I estimate your raw MBE was about 91-92% correct. This means only 1.6% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 173.3 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 336, your written score was 162.7, which would have placed you in the 90.2% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 9.8% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, based on the MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 94.3% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 336 (meaning that 5.7% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

I'm glad the UBE Score Estimator was on point. I would say the Estimator is most accurate with the examinees most likely to pass (e.g. T1 Domestic Educated First Time Takers).

If you don't mind one quick question, if you had to attribute your passing to just one thing, what would that be? I ask this to see if there is any commonality in answers among high scoring examinees.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by jjcorvino » Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:09 am

JoeSeperac wrote:
Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:04 am
jjcorvino wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 4:10 pm
Hi Joe, your estimator was spot on. I put in my information and it guessed my score exactly (weird as hell).

Took New York, my total score was 336 and my scaled score was 173.3. Could you verify the percentile?

Thanks!

Congratulations on passing the J20 NY bar exam. Based on your scaled MBE score of 173.3, I estimate your raw MBE was about 91-92% correct. This means only 1.6% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 173.3 (based on national data for the past 7 years).

Based on a total score of 336, your written score was 162.7, which would have placed you in the 90.2% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 9.8% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, based on the MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 94.3% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 336 (meaning that 5.7% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

I'm glad the UBE Score Estimator was on point. I would say the Estimator is most accurate with the examinees most likely to pass (e.g. T1 Domestic Educated First Time Takers).

If you don't mind one quick question, if you had to attribute your passing to just one thing, what would that be? I ask this to see if there is any commonality in answers among high scoring examinees.
Thank you!

I would contribute my passing to a few things:

1. I completed 100% of Barbri.
2. I used critical pass flash cards, I used this to substitute for reading the longer outlines. I felt that the flash cards helped me skip some of the minutiae, and really nail down the basics.
3. Instead of writing full responses for practice essays, I just outlined them. This gave me the chance to do more practice, I was confident in my general writing skill.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by JoeSeperac » Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:10 am

gardenia wrote:
Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:06 pm
Hi Joe,

I took the NY online exam in Oct 2020. My score was 305, 157.7 scaled score for the MBE. What percentiles are those? Thanks!

Because I see you asking people how they studied--I completed 68% of Barbri and focused most heavily on reading the Conviser Mini Outlines for the MBE subjects.

Congratulations on passing and thanks for anticipating my followup!

Based on your scaled MBE score of 157.7, your estimated raw MBE score was about 79 correct. This places you in the 82.7% percentile for the MBE. This means that 17.3% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 157.7 (based on national data for the past 7 years). Based on a total score of 305, your written score was 147.3, which would have placed you in the 61.3% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 38.7% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT). Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, based on the MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 72% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 305 (meaning that 28% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE).

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by ayylmao » Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:05 pm

Hey Joe,

Thanks for doing these. I just passed the New Jersey bar with a 333 and an MBE score of 171.8. I'm curious what my percentiles are. Based on some of the other responses in this thread, I think I exceeded my best practice score on test day.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by Anonymous User » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:08 pm

Hi Joe!

I was wondering if you could let me know how I did on the NY online exam in October. My total score is 334 and my MBE score is 163.2. I really appreciate it, thanks!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by JoeSeperac » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:48 am

ayylmao wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:05 pm
Hey Joe,

Thanks for doing these. I just passed the New Jersey bar with a 333 and an MBE score of 171.8. I'm curious what my percentiles are. Based on some of the other responses in this thread, I think I exceeded my best practice score on test day.

Congratulations and Happy New Year! Based on your scaled MBE score of 171.8, your estimated raw MBE score was about 90% correct. This places you in the 97.8% percentile for the MBE. This means that 2.2% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 171.8 (based on national data for the past 7 years). Based on a total score of 333, your written score was 161.2, which would have placed you in the 88.2% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 11.8% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT). Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, based on the MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 93% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 333 (meaning that 7% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

How were you testing on the MBE (% correct) about two weeks before the exam?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by JoeSeperac » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:00 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:08 pm
Hi Joe!

I was wondering if you could let me know how I did on the NY online exam in October. My total score is 334 and my MBE score is 163.2. I really appreciate it, thanks!

Congratulations on passing the NY bar exam. Based on your scaled MBE score of 163.2, your estimated raw MBE score was about 84% correct. This places you in the 90.8% percentile for the MBE. This means that 9.2% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 163.2 (based on national data for the past 7 years). Based on a total score of 334, your written score was 170.8, which would have placed you in the 97.4% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 2.6% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT). Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, based on the MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 94.1% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 334 (meaning that 5.9% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

If you don't mind a followup question, how many MEE and MPT did you do in practice?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by ayylmao » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:18 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:48 am
ayylmao wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:05 pm
Hey Joe,

Thanks for doing these. I just passed the New Jersey bar with a 333 and an MBE score of 171.8. I'm curious what my percentiles are. Based on some of the other responses in this thread, I think I exceeded my best practice score on test day.

Congratulations and Happy New Year! Based on your scaled MBE score of 171.8, your estimated raw MBE score was about 90% correct. This places you in the 97.8% percentile for the MBE. This means that 2.2% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 171.8 (based on national data for the past 7 years). Based on a total score of 333, your written score was 161.2, which would have placed you in the 88.2% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 11.8% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT). Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, based on the MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 93% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 333 (meaning that 7% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

How were you testing on the MBE (% correct) about two weeks before the exam?
Thanks, Joe -- looks like I beat my best score by about 5%. As I recall, my average was in the 70-75% range. However, I'd pulled scores of between 80% and 85% on Barbri's final practice exam and one of the "OPE" practice exams in Emanuel's. I typically scored 5-10% better on genuine MBE questions than Barbri's questions.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by Miss Trial » Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:28 pm

JoeSeperac wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 10:08 pm
If I get enough CA scores, I can make a full score calculator - I just need a large enough set of points so I can interpolate.
Thank you for all you do, Joe! Were you ever able to create a CA bar exam calculator for first timers who want to guess if they passed or not?

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by Lawschoolgeek11 » Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:31 pm

Hi Joe,

I am waiting for the CA bar results. First time taker. I did 100% of Themis, scored about average on the essays, 72% overall on the MBE. I also took AdaptiBar and did about 2000 questions and scored around 75%.
What would you predict for my score?
Thanks!!!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by JoeSeperac » Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:12 am

Miss Trial wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:28 pm
JoeSeperac wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 10:08 pm
If I get enough CA scores, I can make a full score calculator - I just need a large enough set of points so I can interpolate.
Thank you for all you do, Joe! Were you ever able to create a CA bar exam calculator for first timers who want to guess if they passed or not?

My CA bar score calculator is here:

https://mberules.com/california-bar-exa ... alculator/

This calculator will accurately estimate a Written Scaled Score and Total Score for the J17-J19 California bar exam administrations. 2020 CA examinees can use the J19 or J18 calculators to do a post-exam analysis of their scores while F21 CA examinees can use the F19 or F18 calculators to test various scoring scenarios and estimate their F21 performance. There is also a form to submit if you want to know what your raw scores were on the MBE. I don’t expect to post F20 and J20 calculators until I receive enough scores which might take a few months.

As for predicting your CA bar exam score, the best predictor right now is my UBE demographic calculator:

https://www.seperac.com/zcalc-passcalc.php

Please read the explanation to understand how to use it. I am still quite far away from having enough data points to make a CA specific estimator.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by JoeSeperac » Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:22 am

Lawschoolgeek11 wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:31 pm
Hi Joe,

I am waiting for the CA bar results. First time taker. I did 100% of Themis, scored about average on the essays, 72% overall on the MBE. I also took AdaptiBar and did about 2000 questions and scored around 75%.
What would you predict for my score?
Thanks!!!

Based on your practice scores (and assuming your scores are genuine and not based on memorization/familiarity with the answers), I would predict an MBE score between 145-155 on the MBE. Please note this is a rough estimate and should be taken with a grain of salt. If you are T1-T2, I would shade it up. The following calculator will also provide an estimate based on your demographics:

https://www.seperac.com/zcalc-passcalc.php

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by Anonymous User » Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:01 pm

Hi Joe!

I took the October 2020 DC bar exam. Could you tell me what percentile I was in?

Written score: 162
Multiple choice score: 178
Total: 340

Thanks!

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by JoeSeperac » Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:03 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:01 pm
Hi Joe!

I took the October 2020 DC bar exam. Could you tell me what percentile I was in?

Written score: 162
Multiple choice score: 178
Total: 340

Thanks!

Congratulations on passing the O20 DC bar exam! Based on your scaled MBE score of 178, your estimated raw MBE score was about 95% correct. This places you in the 99.6% percentile for the MBE. This means that 0.4% of Jul examinees nationwide did better than you on the MBE based on your scaled MBE score of 178 (based on national data for the past 7 years). Out of the 6,500 examinees who have told me their scores over the years, only 10 have reported scoring higher than 178 on the MBE.

Based on a total score of 340, your written score was 162, which would have placed you in the 89.2% percentile among examinees nationwide (meaning that 10.8% of examinees nationwide would have scored better than you on the MEE/MPT).

Although NCBE does not release percentiles for total UBE scores, based on the MBE and written percentiles, this would place you in the 94.4% percentile among examinees nationwide based on your total score of 340 (meaning that 5.6% of examinees nationwide scored better than you on the UBE). Please keep in mind this is just an estimate and may be incorrect.

If you don't mind one quick question, if you had to attribute your MBE score to just one thing, what would that be? I ask this to see if there is any commonality in answers among high scoring examinees.

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Re: The "Ask @JoeSeperac" Thread

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:44 pm

Thank you for your response! While I did a lot of practice questions, mostly through Themis, I didn't really come close to the recommended 2,000 (I think I did around 1,300) so I think for me what helped the most was just learning all of the little nuances of the law. I made tons of note cards from the big outlines they give you. And I did take an mbe class in law school and the professor really helped break down how to figure out what the question is really talking about and pick the answer based on that (e.g. never pick the answer with the exception in it unless the facts of the question are talking about the exception). I did feel like I guessed on a good portion of the questions on the actual exam so I imagine luck played a big part as well, which is not as helpful of an answer.

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