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Is no follow-up after an initial interview a soft rejection? It has been two weeks since my initial interview.

Generally it's not a good sign but especially with clerkships there are always exceptions. My judge got back to someone after four months. We only did one round of interviews though.

No, you might be a second choice or even third choice. Or some sort of backup.

The judge might be interviewing more, or extending offers to preferred candidates.

The same thing happened to me. Anyway, there's no point in worrying.

I think the likeliest outcome is that you don't get the clerkship, but it's not all that unusual for a few weeks to pass in between interview and offer - especially in times outside of June where there's no Plan-driven rush. Our chambers was hiring in the fall and one of the people we interviewed had to wait 3+ weeks for an offer because we had a few very busy weeks of court and clerk hiring slipped down the list of priorities.