Post-Biden SCOTUS Shortlist Forum

[Anonymous User]

Who cares? A cursory read of Alito’s draft opinion shows how stupid these kinds of judges and their clerks actually are. They’ll probably nominate a “genius” like Mizelle or Walker

"Peeple who say different from me are stoopid so this thread is POOP!!111"

You (and the dissenting opinion)

[Anonymous User]

Thapar and Oldham are the favorites. Thapar is older for sure but he's built a huge lead like Kavanaugh and Barrett did for the last ones. Plus, he's the biggest feeder in the country and hires a lot of clerks who are well-positioned to fight for him (like Kavanaugh's machine). Oldham, however, is extremely conservative and has made a big splash with a lot of cases recently.

I'd give Rao an outside shot as well. Katsas is probably too old although he's arguably the most respected conservative judge in the country and one of CT's favorite former clerks.

[Anonymous User]

Thapar and Oldham are the favorites. Thapar is older for sure but he's built a huge lead like Kavanaugh and Barrett did for the last ones. Plus, he's the biggest feeder in the country and hires a lot of clerks who are well-positioned to fight for him (like Kavanaugh's machine). Oldham, however, is extremely conservative and has made a big splash with a lot of cases recently.

I'd give Rao an outside shot as well. Katsas is probably too old although he's arguably the most respected conservative judge in the country and one of CT's favorite former clerks.

Thapar is by far the leader because he also has McConnell’s entire support.

[Anonymous User]

Funnily enough, Oldham and Thapar are absolute best friends. They co-hire the same way that Katzmann and Rakoff did back in the day. Would be interesting to see how that dynamic changes if they're the leading candidates for SCOTUS.

[Anonymous User]

Who cares? A cursory read of Alito’s draft opinion shows how stupid these kinds of judges and their clerks actually are. They’ll probably nominate a “genius” like Mizelle or Walker

"Peeple who say different from me are stoopid so this thread is POOP!!111"

You (and the dissenting opinion)

Clever. Are you clerking for Rao next cycle? Reminds me of her opinions.

[Anonymous User]

Reasonable to guess Alito/Thomas will retire around 2030, so we're looking for judges in their mid 40s right now. Average age of nominees is around 50.

It strikes me that Republicans will be wary of two potential outcomes:
1. Conservative justices are all white
2. SCOTUS is majority female (especially 6-3 female)
Speculative, of course. #2 is rarely discussed, but that undercurrent might be lurking there, especially in the olds.

So if Thomas retires first and we roughly apply the above, that leaves Thapar, Ho, Park, Lee, Bumatay, Desantis, and Cruz, from the names offered so far. Thapar, Ho, Cruz, and Lee have all been short listed before, but that could be a positive or negative sign. Thapar/Cruz will be pushing 60, and I doubt Desantis would bail on his executive branch future, so they're all reversed and remanded.

Judges Ho, Park, Lee, and Bumatay are interesting. All have strong pedigrees, the DC connect, fedsoc fame, and would be the first Asian justice. Bumatay's the youngest and has been making waves on the 9th, plus he'd deliver Republicans two "firsts" (Asian + LGBT). Ho/Park have had really stellar careers, and were Thomas/Alito clerks. Bet it's someone from this lot. I'd wager my student loans.

[Anonymous User]

Reasonable to guess Alito/Thomas will retire around 2030, so we're looking for judges in their mid 40s right now. Average age of nominees is around 50.

It strikes me that Republicans will be wary of two potential outcomes:
1. Conservative justices are all white
2. SCOTUS is majority female (especially 6-3 female)
Speculative, of course. #2 is rarely discussed, but that undercurrent might be lurking there, especially in the olds.

So if Thomas retires first and we roughly apply the above, that leaves Thapar, Ho, Park, Lee, Bumatay, Desantis, and Cruz, from the names offered so far. Thapar, Ho, Cruz, and Lee have all been short listed before, but that could be a positive or negative sign. Thapar/Cruz will be pushing 60, and I doubt Desantis would bail on his executive branch future, so they're all reversed and remanded.

Judges Ho, Park, Lee, and Bumatay are interesting. All have strong pedigrees, the DC connect, fedsoc fame, and would be the first Asian justice. Bumatay's the youngest and has been making waves on the 9th, plus he'd deliver Republicans two "firsts" (Asian + LGBT). Ho/Park have had really stellar careers, and were Thomas/Alito clerks. Bet it's someone from this lot. I'd wager my student loans.

Wait, why wouldn't the republicans want a 6-3 majority female SCOTUS? Do you think they are worried that female justices are more likely to find equal protection violations on the basis of sex? That seems a bit far fetched given the extensive vetting processes that both sides now employ. It seems to me that a 6-3 female and 6-3 conservative court would be an ideal outcome for republicans.

Also, given how the democrat senators floundered in the ACB hearings, I suspect republicans believe they can get an easier confirmation with a woman than a man.

[Anonymous User]

Reasonable to guess Alito/Thomas will retire around 2030, so we're looking for judges in their mid 40s right now. Average age of nominees is around 50.

It strikes me that Republicans will be wary of two potential outcomes:
1. Conservative justices are all white
2. SCOTUS is majority female (especially 6-3 female)
Speculative, of course. #2 is rarely discussed, but that undercurrent might be lurking there, especially in the olds.

So if Thomas retires first and we roughly apply the above, that leaves Thapar, Ho, Park, Lee, Bumatay, Desantis, and Cruz, from the names offered so far. Thapar, Ho, Cruz, and Lee have all been short listed before, but that could be a positive or negative sign. Thapar/Cruz will be pushing 60, and I doubt Desantis would bail on his executive branch future, so they're all reversed and remanded.

Judges Ho, Park, Lee, and Bumatay are interesting. All have strong pedigrees, the DC connect, fedsoc fame, and would be the first Asian justice. Bumatay's the youngest and has been making waves on the 9th, plus he'd deliver Republicans two "firsts" (Asian + LGBT). Ho/Park have had really stellar careers, and were Thomas/Alito clerks. Bet it's someone from this lot. I'd wager my student loans.

Wait, why wouldn't the republicans want a 6-3 majority female SCOTUS? Do you think they are worried that female justices are more likely to find equal protection violations on the basis of sex? That seems a bit far fetched given the extensive vetting processes that both sides now employ. It seems to me that a 6-3 female and 6-3 conservative court would be an ideal outcome for republicans.

Also, given how the democrat senators floundered in the ACB hearings, I suspect republicans believe they can get an easier confirmation with a woman than a man.

I'm wager everything the first poster said will turn out wrong.

1. Alito/Thomas will retire as soon as is feasible in a doubly Republican Senate/Presidency at the first opportunity. That could be 2030, but 2024/2028 is much more likely.
2. No one will particularly care if SCOTUS is majority female, but Thapar is the clear next in line, followed by Oldham anyway. I have no idea where DeSantis is coming from, his short legal career as a Navy JAG and year as an AUSA over a decade ago isn't remotely prepared him for any court, let alone the highest one.
3. If you really want to bet on Republicans choosing an Asian, Park, Ho, Lee, and Bumatay are all behind Thapar and Rao. I'd even go so far as to say someone like Aditya Bamzai has a higher chance than the aforementioned 4.

[Anonymous User]

Reasonable to guess Alito/Thomas will retire around 2030, so we're looking for judges in their mid 40s right now. Average age of nominees is around 50.

It strikes me that Republicans will be wary of two potential outcomes:
1. Conservative justices are all white
2. SCOTUS is majority female (especially 6-3 female)
Speculative, of course. #2 is rarely discussed, but that undercurrent might be lurking there, especially in the olds.

So if Thomas retires first and we roughly apply the above, that leaves Thapar, Ho, Park, Lee, Bumatay, Desantis, and Cruz, from the names offered so far. Thapar, Ho, Cruz, and Lee have all been short listed before, but that could be a positive or negative sign. Thapar/Cruz will be pushing 60, and I doubt Desantis would bail on his executive branch future, so they're all reversed and remanded.

Judges Ho, Park, Lee, and Bumatay are interesting. All have strong pedigrees, the DC connect, fedsoc fame, and would be the first Asian justice. Bumatay's the youngest and has been making waves on the 9th, plus he'd deliver Republicans two "firsts" (Asian + LGBT). Ho/Park have had really stellar careers, and were Thomas/Alito clerks. Bet it's someone from this lot. I'd wager my student loans.

Wait, why wouldn't the republicans want a 6-3 majority female SCOTUS? Do you think they are worried that female justices are more likely to find equal protection violations on the basis of sex? That seems a bit far fetched given the extensive vetting processes that both sides now employ. It seems to me that a 6-3 female and 6-3 conservative court would be an ideal outcome for republicans.

Also, given how the democrat senators floundered in the ACB hearings, I suspect republicans believe they can get an easier confirmation with a woman than a man.

I'm wager everything the first poster said will turn out wrong.

1. Alito/Thomas will retire as soon as is feasible in a doubly Republican Senate/Presidency at the first opportunity. That could be 2030, but 2024/2028 is much more likely.
2. No one will particularly care if SCOTUS is majority female, but Thapar is the clear next in line, followed by Oldham anyway. I have no idea where DeSantis is coming from, his short legal career as a Navy JAG and year as an AUSA over a decade ago isn't remotely prepared him for any court, let alone the highest one.
3. If you really want to bet on Republicans choosing an Asian, Park, Ho, Lee, and Bumatay are all behind Thapar and Rao. I'd even go so far as to say someone like Aditya Bamzai has a higher chance than the aforementioned 4.

Bamzai could have timing on his side. Spend a few years on the DC Circuit before stepping up to SCOTUS. I also think Sherif Girgis could be a contender if there isn't another opening for a while. He checks all the boxes and is clearly brilliant.

[Anonymous User]

Thapar is going to be 54 when the President takes the oath of office in 2025. That's no spring chicken but it's young enough and he's got a huge lead. My guess is it's him unless the new President has some particular local darling in mind (e.g. GWB nominating Harriet Miers or DeSantis with Lagoa according to rumors). And you can imagine that's unlikely given Fed Soc's ironclad grip on judicial nominations under Trump.

[Anonymous User]

Reasonable to guess Alito/Thomas will retire around 2030, so we're looking for judges in their mid 40s right now. Average age of nominees is around 50.

It strikes me that Republicans will be wary of two potential outcomes:
1. Conservative justices are all white
2. SCOTUS is majority female (especially 6-3 female)
Speculative, of course. #2 is rarely discussed, but that undercurrent might be lurking there, especially in the olds.

So if Thomas retires first and we roughly apply the above, that leaves Thapar, Ho, Park, Lee, Bumatay, Desantis, and Cruz, from the names offered so far. Thapar, Ho, Cruz, and Lee have all been short listed before, but that could be a positive or negative sign. Thapar/Cruz will be pushing 60, and I doubt Desantis would bail on his executive branch future, so they're all reversed and remanded.

Judges Ho, Park, Lee, and Bumatay are interesting. All have strong pedigrees, the DC connect, fedsoc fame, and would be the first Asian justice. Bumatay's the youngest and has been making waves on the 9th, plus he'd deliver Republicans two "firsts" (Asian + LGBT). Ho/Park have had really stellar careers, and were Thomas/Alito clerks. Bet it's someone from this lot. I'd wager my student loans.

Wait, why wouldn't the republicans want a 6-3 majority female SCOTUS? Do you think they are worried that female justices are more likely to find equal protection violations on the basis of sex? That seems a bit far fetched given the extensive vetting processes that both sides now employ. It seems to me that a 6-3 female and 6-3 conservative court would be an ideal outcome for republicans.

Also, given how the democrat senators floundered in the ACB hearings, I suspect republicans believe they can get an easier confirmation with a woman than a man.

I'm wager everything the first poster said will turn out wrong.

1. Alito/Thomas will retire as soon as is feasible in a doubly Republican Senate/Presidency at the first opportunity. That could be 2030, but 2024/2028 is much more likely.
2. No one will particularly care if SCOTUS is majority female, but Thapar is the clear next in line, followed by Oldham anyway. I have no idea where DeSantis is coming from, his short legal career as a Navy JAG and year as an AUSA over a decade ago isn't remotely prepared him for any court, let alone the highest one.
3. If you really want to bet on Republicans choosing an Asian, Park, Ho, Lee, and Bumatay are all behind Thapar and Rao. I'd even go so far as to say someone like Aditya Bamzai has a higher chance than the aforementioned 4.

one rumor I’ve heard is that part of the deal on Rao’s confirmation was that Hawley et al would not support her for SCOTUS

Thapar will likely age out

[Anonymous User]

Reasonable to guess Alito/Thomas will retire around 2030, so we're looking for judges in their mid 40s right now. Average age of nominees is around 50.

It strikes me that Republicans will be wary of two potential outcomes:
1. Conservative justices are all white
2. SCOTUS is majority female (especially 6-3 female)
Speculative, of course. #2 is rarely discussed, but that undercurrent might be lurking there, especially in the olds.

So if Thomas retires first and we roughly apply the above, that leaves Thapar, Ho, Park, Lee, Bumatay, Desantis, and Cruz, from the names offered so far. Thapar, Ho, Cruz, and Lee have all been short listed before, but that could be a positive or negative sign. Thapar/Cruz will be pushing 60, and I doubt Desantis would bail on his executive branch future, so they're all reversed and remanded.

Judges Ho, Park, Lee, and Bumatay are interesting. All have strong pedigrees, the DC connect, fedsoc fame, and would be the first Asian justice. Bumatay's the youngest and has been making waves on the 9th, plus he'd deliver Republicans two "firsts" (Asian + LGBT). Ho/Park have had really stellar careers, and were Thomas/Alito clerks. Bet it's someone from this lot. I'd wager my student loans.

Wait, why wouldn't the republicans want a 6-3 majority female SCOTUS? Do you think they are worried that female justices are more likely to find equal protection violations on the basis of sex? That seems a bit far fetched given the extensive vetting processes that both sides now employ. It seems to me that a 6-3 female and 6-3 conservative court would be an ideal outcome for republicans.

Also, given how the democrat senators floundered in the ACB hearings, I suspect republicans believe they can get an easier confirmation with a woman than a man.

I'm wager everything the first poster said will turn out wrong.

1. Alito/Thomas will retire as soon as is feasible in a doubly Republican Senate/Presidency at the first opportunity. That could be 2030, but 2024/2028 is much more likely.
2. No one will particularly care if SCOTUS is majority female, but Thapar is the clear next in line, followed by Oldham anyway. I have no idea where DeSantis is coming from, his short legal career as a Navy JAG and year as an AUSA over a decade ago isn't remotely prepared him for any court, let alone the highest one.
3. If you really want to bet on Republicans choosing an Asian, Park, Ho, Lee, and Bumatay are all behind Thapar and Rao. I'd even go so far as to say someone like Aditya Bamzai has a higher chance than the aforementioned 4.

one rumor I’ve heard is that part of the deal on Rao’s confirmation was that Hawley et al would not support her for SCOTUS

Thapar will likely age out

This is true. The bigger problem for her is that she’s not Christian and pro choice, which always made her scotus odds pretty poor. I do think Thapar’s age is one, but not the only reason, he might not have the constituency many assume now. Lagoa will definitely be too old. I would be surprised if we ever see a gop nominee much if at all above 50.

If I had to guess, the front runners right now would be Oldham, Walker, and Menashi. Don’t count out Rushing and Mizelle (she will be one of the first COA nominees and her stock has shot up lately).

[Anonymous User]

This is true. The bigger problem for her is that she’s not Christian and pro choice, which always made her scotus odds pretty poor. I do think Thapar’s age is one, but not the only reason, he might not have the constituency many assume now. Lagoa will definitely be too old. I would be surprised if we ever see a gop nominee much if at all above 50.

If I had to guess, the front runners right now would be Oldham, Walker, and Menashi. Don’t count out Rushing and Mizelle (she will be one of the first COA nominees and her stock has shot up lately).

Rao is not pro-choice? Menashi and Rao are also both Jewish, if that was an issue.

[Anonymous User]

Reasonable to guess Alito/Thomas will retire around 2030, so we're looking for judges in their mid 40s right now. Average age of nominees is around 50.

It strikes me that Republicans will be wary of two potential outcomes:
1. Conservative justices are all white
2. SCOTUS is majority female (especially 6-3 female)
Speculative, of course. #2 is rarely discussed, but that undercurrent might be lurking there, especially in the olds.

So if Thomas retires first and we roughly apply the above, that leaves Thapar, Ho, Park, Lee, Bumatay, Desantis, and Cruz, from the names offered so far. Thapar, Ho, Cruz, and Lee have all been short listed before, but that could be a positive or negative sign. Thapar/Cruz will be pushing 60, and I doubt Desantis would bail on his executive branch future, so they're all reversed and remanded.

Judges Ho, Park, Lee, and Bumatay are interesting. All have strong pedigrees, the DC connect, fedsoc fame, and would be the first Asian justice. Bumatay's the youngest and has been making waves on the 9th, plus he'd deliver Republicans two "firsts" (Asian + LGBT). Ho/Park have had really stellar careers, and were Thomas/Alito clerks. Bet it's someone from this lot. I'd wager my student loans.

Wait, why wouldn't the republicans want a 6-3 majority female SCOTUS? Do you think they are worried that female justices are more likely to find equal protection violations on the basis of sex? That seems a bit far fetched given the extensive vetting processes that both sides now employ. It seems to me that a 6-3 female and 6-3 conservative court would be an ideal outcome for republicans.

Also, given how the democrat senators floundered in the ACB hearings, I suspect republicans believe they can get an easier confirmation with a woman than a man.

I'm wager everything the first poster said will turn out wrong.

1. Alito/Thomas will retire as soon as is feasible in a doubly Republican Senate/Presidency at the first opportunity. That could be 2030, but 2024/2028 is much more likely.
2. No one will particularly care if SCOTUS is majority female, but Thapar is the clear next in line, followed by Oldham anyway. I have no idea where DeSantis is coming from, his short legal career as a Navy JAG and year as an AUSA over a decade ago isn't remotely prepared him for any court, let alone the highest one.
3. If you really want to bet on Republicans choosing an Asian, Park, Ho, Lee, and Bumatay are all behind Thapar and Rao. I'd even go so far as to say someone like Aditya Bamzai has a higher chance than the aforementioned 4.

1. Year of retirement was based on avg. age of retirement (81), which would be 2029 for Thomas and 2031 for Alito, according to: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022 ... etirement/.
I'm not so sure Thomas/Alito are itching to retire, is that what people are saying? They almost seem reinvigorated to me--this is the solid majority they've been waiting decades for. And I never hear people on the right calling for them to step aside, unlike with Breyer/Ginsburg. The opposite in fact, since the Barrett/Kavanaugh/Roberts camp might meander away to the center-left if unsupervised.

2. I'm not sold on Thapar. His demeanor is more like a politician than a SCOTUS justice, and I think it's telling that he was passed over twice after meeting with POTUS. Once he's pushing 60 I'm not seeing it... Seems like a great guy, but more of a Kavanaugh/Barrett, when the Court will need another Thomas/Alito. Someone who's crusaded against the administrative state like Rao makes a lot more sense.
I think you're wrong about the female majority thing, but I live in a very socially conservative place that isn't representative. And I could see this changing if Barrett proves to be a reliable conservative. Desantis was there because I scrolled through the comments and considered all the names I saw.

3. For a few years, maybe, but late 50s is already abnormally old for a new associate justice. Everyone on the current Court was 55 or younger when they began their tenure. Judge Thapar is already 53. I don't know anything about Aditya Banzai. It would be unusual to nominate someone with no judicial experience, but not unprecedented.

Agree with your wager though.

[Anonymous User]

1. Year of retirement was based on avg. age of retirement (81), which would be 2029 for Thomas and 2031 for Alito, according to: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022 ... etirement/.
I'm not so sure Thomas/Alito are itching to retire, is that what people are saying? They almost seem reinvigorated to me--this is the solid majority they've been waiting decades for. And I never hear people on the right calling for them to step aside, unlike with Breyer/Ginsburg. The opposite in fact, since the Barrett/Kavanaugh/Roberts camp might meander away to the center-left if unsupervised.

2. I'm not sold on Thapar. His demeanor is more like a politician than a SCOTUS justice, and I think it's telling that he was passed over twice after meeting with POTUS. Once he's pushing 60 I'm not seeing it... Seems like a great guy, but more of a Kavanaugh/Barrett, when the Court will need another Thomas/Alito. Someone who's crusaded against the administrative state like Rao makes a lot more sense.
I think you're wrong about the female majority thing, but I live in a very socially conservative place that isn't representative. And I could see this changing if Barrett proves to be a reliable conservative. Desantis was there because I scrolled through the comments and considered all the names I saw.

3. For a few years, maybe, but late 50s is already abnormally old for a new associate justice. Everyone on the current Court was 55 or younger when they began their tenure. Judge Thapar is already 53. I don't know anything about Aditya Banzai. It would be unusual to nominate someone with no judicial experience, but not unprecedented.

Agree with your wager though.

1. No one is demanding Alito/Thomas step down because Joe Biden is in office. The second there is a Republican President with a Republican Senate, you can bet your life McConnell will be on the phone with Thomas/Alito (or their surrogates), asking them politely to wrap up any remaining items on their wishlist and retire. There is no way McConnell will ever let a SCOTUS seat slip, and you'll note he helped convince Kennedy to retire.
Thomas has had health issues, and Alito is the most openly partisan conservative justice. They'll retire without too much pushing (like Breyer, who was always going to retire regardless of the disrespectful and idiotic pressure campaign DemandJustice started).

2. Thapar was passed over because he had no appellate experience at the time and Gorsuch was THE Scalia clone, with a ton of support. Kavanaugh was handpicked by Kennedy. He's also significantly more conservative than Kavanaugh.

3. Kavanaugh was about a year older. In any case, there will be a move for Justices to retire sooner and when able. The stakes are just too high to leave anything to chance. An open partisan like Thapar is fully cognizant of this.

ACB has already proven herself? If you aren't going to change your mind on Dobbs with protestors calling for your assassination and the Justice Department doing nothing about it, you aren't going to change your mind on anything. I don't think anyone aside has any remaining hangups about her or Kavanugh.

4. Bamzai is 100% on the shortlist for any DC Circuit position that opens up in the near future and is quite young.

[Anonymous User]

This is true. The bigger problem for her is that she’s not Christian and pro choice, which always made her scotus odds pretty poor. I do think Thapar’s age is one, but not the only reason, he might not have the constituency many assume now. Lagoa will definitely be too old. I would be surprised if we ever see a gop nominee much if at all above 50.

If I had to guess, the front runners right now would be Oldham, Walker, and Menashi. Don’t count out Rushing and Mizelle (she will be one of the first COA nominees and her stock has shot up lately).

Rao is not pro-choice? Menashi and Rao are also both Jewish, if that was an issue.

She privately is. This is basically Hawley et als issue with her…

Yes, Menashi is also Jewish. But he’s a hardliner on social issues more than Rao and has a lot more support from the social con crowd as a result. I think he trails Oldham and Walker partly because of it still though.

[Anonymous User]

This is true. The bigger problem for her is that she’s not Christian and pro choice, which always made her scotus odds pretty poor. I do think Thapar’s age is one, but not the only reason, he might not have the constituency many assume now. Lagoa will definitely be too old. I would be surprised if we ever see a gop nominee much if at all above 50.

If I had to guess, the front runners right now would be Oldham, Walker, and Menashi. Don’t count out Rushing and Mizelle (she will be one of the first COA nominees and her stock has shot up lately).

Rao is not pro-choice? Menashi and Rao are also both Jewish, if that was an issue.

She privately is. This is basically Hawley et als issue with her…

Yes, Menashi is also Jewish. But he’s a hardliner on social issues more than Rao and has a lot more support from the social con crowd as a result. I think he trails Oldham and Walker partly because of it still though.

No one who has spent more than 10 seconds with Rao thinks she is pro-choice. Hawley doesn't like her personally, and figured because she is not Christian, he could try convincing social conservatives that he's the real social conservative champion when he runs for President.

[Anonymous User]

This is true. The bigger problem for her is that she’s not Christian and pro choice, which always made her scotus odds pretty poor. I do think Thapar’s age is one, but not the only reason, he might not have the constituency many assume now. Lagoa will definitely be too old. I would be surprised if we ever see a gop nominee much if at all above 50.

If I had to guess, the front runners right now would be Oldham, Walker, and Menashi. Don’t count out Rushing and Mizelle (she will be one of the first COA nominees and her stock has shot up lately).

Rao is not pro-choice? Menashi and Rao are also both Jewish, if that was an issue.

She privately is. This is basically Hawley et als issue with her…

Yes, Menashi is also Jewish. But he’s a hardliner on social issues more than Rao and has a lot more support from the social con crowd as a result. I think he trails Oldham and Walker partly because of it still though.

As someone who is conservative and follows this stuff closely, I don't really see Walker or Menashi being top tier candidates. Also, now that Roe has been overturned, I doubt they place as much emphasis on being pro-choice (although it'll still be a factor).

[Anonymous User]

Reasonable to guess Alito/Thomas will retire around 2030, so we're looking for judges in their mid 40s right now. Average age of nominees is around 50.

It strikes me that Republicans will be wary of two potential outcomes:
1. Conservative justices are all white
2. SCOTUS is majority female (especially 6-3 female)
Speculative, of course. #2 is rarely discussed, but that undercurrent might be lurking there, especially in the olds.

So if Thomas retires first and we roughly apply the above, that leaves Thapar, Ho, Park, Lee, Bumatay, Desantis, and Cruz, from the names offered so far. Thapar, Ho, Cruz, and Lee have all been short listed before, but that could be a positive or negative sign. Thapar/Cruz will be pushing 60, and I doubt Desantis would bail on his executive branch future, so they're all reversed and remanded.

Judges Ho, Park, Lee, and Bumatay are interesting. All have strong pedigrees, the DC connect, fedsoc fame, and would be the first Asian justice. Bumatay's the youngest and has been making waves on the 9th, plus he'd deliver Republicans two "firsts" (Asian + LGBT). Ho/Park have had really stellar careers, and were Thomas/Alito clerks. Bet it's someone from this lot. I'd wager my student loans.

Wait, why wouldn't the republicans want a 6-3 majority female SCOTUS? Do you think they are worried that female justices are more likely to find equal protection violations on the basis of sex? That seems a bit far fetched given the extensive vetting processes that both sides now employ. It seems to me that a 6-3 female and 6-3 conservative court would be an ideal outcome for republicans.

Also, given how the democrat senators floundered in the ACB hearings, I suspect republicans believe they can get an easier confirmation with a woman than a man.

I'm wager everything the first poster said will turn out wrong.

1. Alito/Thomas will retire as soon as is feasible in a doubly Republican Senate/Presidency at the first opportunity. That could be 2030, but 2024/2028 is much more likely.
2. No one will particularly care if SCOTUS is majority female, but Thapar is the clear next in line, followed by Oldham anyway. I have no idea where DeSantis is coming from, his short legal career as a Navy JAG and year as an AUSA over a decade ago isn't remotely prepared him for any court, let alone the highest one.
3. If you really want to bet on Republicans choosing an Asian, Park, Ho, Lee, and Bumatay are all behind Thapar and Rao. I'd even go so far as to say someone like Aditya Bamzai has a higher chance than the aforementioned 4.

1. Year of retirement was based on avg. age of retirement (81), which would be 2029 for Thomas and 2031 for Alito, according to: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022 ... etirement/.
I'm not so sure Thomas/Alito are itching to retire, is that what people are saying? They almost seem reinvigorated to me--this is the solid majority they've been waiting decades for. And I never hear people on the right calling for them to step aside, unlike with Breyer/Ginsburg. The opposite in fact, since the Barrett/Kavanaugh/Roberts camp might meander away to the center-left if unsupervised.

2. I'm not sold on Thapar. His demeanor is more like a politician than a SCOTUS justice, and I think it's telling that he was passed over twice after meeting with POTUS. Once he's pushing 60 I'm not seeing it... Seems like a great guy, but more of a Kavanaugh/Barrett, when the Court will need another Thomas/Alito. Someone who's crusaded against the administrative state like Rao makes a lot more sense.
I think you're wrong about the female majority thing, but I live in a very socially conservative place that isn't representative. And I could see this changing if Barrett proves to be a reliable conservative. Desantis was there because I scrolled through the comments and considered all the names I saw.

3. For a few years, maybe, but late 50s is already abnormally old for a new associate justice. Everyone on the current Court was 55 or younger when they began their tenure. Judge Thapar is already 53. I don't know anything about Aditya Banzai. It would be unusual to nominate someone with no judicial experience, but not unprecedented.

Agree with your wager though.

Thapar wrote an opinion explaining at length why Roe should be overruled. Even Alito cited it. He's not a Kav.

[Anonymous User]

Reasonable to guess Alito/Thomas will retire around 2030, so we're looking for judges in their mid 40s right now. Average age of nominees is around 50.

It strikes me that Republicans will be wary of two potential outcomes:
1. Conservative justices are all white
2. SCOTUS is majority female (especially 6-3 female)
Speculative, of course. #2 is rarely discussed, but that undercurrent might be lurking there, especially in the olds.

So if Thomas retires first and we roughly apply the above, that leaves Thapar, Ho, Park, Lee, Bumatay, Desantis, and Cruz, from the names offered so far. Thapar, Ho, Cruz, and Lee have all been short listed before, but that could be a positive or negative sign. Thapar/Cruz will be pushing 60, and I doubt Desantis would bail on his executive branch future, so they're all reversed and remanded.

Judges Ho, Park, Lee, and Bumatay are interesting. All have strong pedigrees, the DC connect, fedsoc fame, and would be the first Asian justice. Bumatay's the youngest and has been making waves on the 9th, plus he'd deliver Republicans two "firsts" (Asian + LGBT). Ho/Park have had really stellar careers, and were Thomas/Alito clerks. Bet it's someone from this lot. I'd wager my student loans.

Wait, why wouldn't the republicans want a 6-3 majority female SCOTUS? Do you think they are worried that female justices are more likely to find equal protection violations on the basis of sex? That seems a bit far fetched given the extensive vetting processes that both sides now employ. It seems to me that a 6-3 female and 6-3 conservative court would be an ideal outcome for republicans.

Also, given how the democrat senators floundered in the ACB hearings, I suspect republicans believe they can get an easier confirmation with a woman than a man.

I'm wager everything the first poster said will turn out wrong.

1. Alito/Thomas will retire as soon as is feasible in a doubly Republican Senate/Presidency at the first opportunity. That could be 2030, but 2024/2028 is much more likely.
2. No one will particularly care if SCOTUS is majority female, but Thapar is the clear next in line, followed by Oldham anyway. I have no idea where DeSantis is coming from, his short legal career as a Navy JAG and year as an AUSA over a decade ago isn't remotely prepared him for any court, let alone the highest one.
3. If you really want to bet on Republicans choosing an Asian, Park, Ho, Lee, and Bumatay are all behind Thapar and Rao. I'd even go so far as to say someone like Aditya Bamzai has a higher chance than the aforementioned 4.

1. Year of retirement was based on avg. age of retirement (81), which would be 2029 for Thomas and 2031 for Alito, according to: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022 ... etirement/.
I'm not so sure Thomas/Alito are itching to retire, is that what people are saying? They almost seem reinvigorated to me--this is the solid majority they've been waiting decades for. And I never hear people on the right calling for them to step aside, unlike with Breyer/Ginsburg. The opposite in fact, since the Barrett/Kavanaugh/Roberts camp might meander away to the center-left if unsupervised.

2. I'm not sold on Thapar. His demeanor is more like a politician than a SCOTUS justice, and I think it's telling that he was passed over twice after meeting with POTUS. Once he's pushing 60 I'm not seeing it... Seems like a great guy, but more of a Kavanaugh/Barrett, when the Court will need another Thomas/Alito. Someone who's crusaded against the administrative state like Rao makes a lot more sense.
I think you're wrong about the female majority thing, but I live in a very socially conservative place that isn't representative. And I could see this changing if Barrett proves to be a reliable conservative. Desantis was there because I scrolled through the comments and considered all the names I saw.

3. For a few years, maybe, but late 50s is already abnormally old for a new associate justice. Everyone on the current Court was 55 or younger when they began their tenure. Judge Thapar is already 53. I don't know anything about Aditya Banzai. It would be unusual to nominate someone with no judicial experience, but not unprecedented.

Agree with your wager though.

Thapar wrote an opinion explaining at length why Roe should be overruled. Even Alito cited it. He's not a Kav.

Kav literally provided the key vote to overturn Roe. This makes no sense.

[Anonymous User]

Kav literally provided the key vote to overturn Roe. This makes no sense.

Josh Hammer must be on his TLS account.

[Anonymous User]

Kav literally provided the key vote to overturn Roe. This makes no sense.

Josh Hammer must be on his TLS account.

I was saying that Kav is a conservative because he voted to overturn Roe.

The previous poster said that Thapar is more conservative than Kav because he gave a roadmap to overturn Roe. However, it was Kav who actually cast the vote to overturn Roe. Therefore, we can conclude that the issue of abortion does not demonstrate that Thapar is more conservative than Kav (although, he may be).

No idea how this makes me Josh Hammer lol. I am saying Kav is a conservative. Hammer would say he isn't because he occasionally votes with liberals.

[Anonymous User]

Kav literally provided the key vote to overturn Roe. This makes no sense.

Josh Hammer must be on his TLS account.

I was saying that Kav is a conservative because he voted to overturn Roe.

The previous poster said that Thapar is more conservative than Kav because he gave a roadmap to overturn Roe. However, it was Kav who actually cast the vote to overturn Roe. Therefore, we can conclude that the issue of abortion does not demonstrate that Thapar is more conservative than Kav (although, he may be).

No idea how this makes me Josh Hammer lol. I am saying Kav is a conservative. Hammer would say he isn't because he occasionally votes with liberals.

I was agreeing with you. The notion Kavanaugh is some secret liberal is lunacy.

[Anonymous User]

Kav literally provided the key vote to overturn Roe. This makes no sense.

Josh Hammer must be on his TLS account.

I was saying that Kav is a conservative because he voted to overturn Roe.

The previous poster said that Thapar is more conservative than Kav because he gave a roadmap to overturn Roe. However, it was Kav who actually cast the vote to overturn Roe. Therefore, we can conclude that the issue of abortion does not demonstrate that Thapar is more conservative than Kav (although, he may be).

No idea how this makes me Josh Hammer lol. I am saying Kav is a conservative. Hammer would say he isn't because he occasionally votes with liberals.

I was agreeing with you. The notion Kavanaugh is some secret liberal is lunacy.

Got it! Bar studying has apparently rotted my brain.

[Anonymous User]

This is true. The bigger problem for her is that she’s not Christian and pro choice, which always made her scotus odds pretty poor. I do think Thapar’s age is one, but not the only reason, he might not have the constituency many assume now. Lagoa will definitely be too old. I would be surprised if we ever see a gop nominee much if at all above 50.

If I had to guess, the front runners right now would be Oldham, Walker, and Menashi. Don’t count out Rushing and Mizelle (she will be one of the first COA nominees and her stock has shot up lately).

Rao is not pro-choice? Menashi and Rao are also both Jewish, if that was an issue.

She privately is. This is basically Hawley et als issue with her…

Yes, Menashi is also Jewish. But he’s a hardliner on social issues more than Rao and has a lot more support from the social con crowd as a result. I think he trails Oldham and Walker partly because of it still though.

No one who has spent more than 10 seconds with Rao thinks she is pro-choice. Hawley doesn't like her personally, and figured because she is not Christian, he could try convincing social conservatives that he's the real social conservative champion when he runs for President.

Very, very few Jews are pro-life, no? I would be shocked if Rao voted to uphold Roe, but not surprised at all if she was personally pro-choice