Post-Biden SCOTUS Shortlist Forum

[Anonymous User]

Old man Joe not looking so hot. I think we can all see the blindingly-bright red writing on the wall ("D-E-S-A-N-T-I-S").

Much of Trump's shortlist will have aged out by then. Whose stars are rising, and who may burn brightest come 2025? To whose chambers should eager beavers be applying, in hopes of catching a flyer?

Please, your rank speculation will help distract me from BarBri (this is a cry for help).

[Reese1]

Old man Joe not looking so hot. I think we can all see the blindingly-bright red writing on the wall ("D-E-S-A-N-T-I-S").

Much of Trump's shortlist will have aged out by then. Whose stars are rising, and who may burn brightest come 2025? To whose chambers should eager beavers be applying, in hopes of catching a flyer?

Please, your rank speculation will help distract me from BarBri (this is a cry for help).

Merrick Garland cuts a deal with Desantis that in exchange for prosecuting Trump, Desantis appoints him to SCOTUS.

[Anonymous User]

The man, the myth, the legend: Steven James Menashi.

[Anonymous User]

There’s already a thread on this, but I think the consensus was that the top possibilities are Thapar, Oldham, Park, Rao, and Grant. If it’s DeSantis, I feel like Oldham’s mix of particularly reactionary politics and particularly strident originalism would be an obvious fit, whereas an admin nerd like Rao would be a less obvious one.

[Anonymous User]

The man, the myth, the legend: Steven James Menashi.

I think Josh Hammer is the obvious pick.

[Anonymous User]

deleted

[Anonymous User]

Jeb!

[Anonymous User]

Who cares? A cursory read of Alito’s draft opinion shows how stupid these kinds of judges and their clerks actually are. They’ll probably nominate a “genius” like Mizelle or Walker

[Anonymous User]

She will age out of the pool quickly, but if it's DeSantis, do not rule out Barbara Lagoa, who is very well regarded in Florida Fed Soc circles and in his critical political base in the Miami Cuban community. He appointed her to the Florida Supreme Court on his first day as governor.

Relatedly, she would be the most likely GOP pick in the event of a surprise Sotomayor vacancy until she's at least 60 years old.

[Anonymous User]

If Thomas retires, guessing there will be some chatter about 1) his former clerks and 2) minority conservatives.

Some names for #1: Mizelle, Stras, Katsas (probably too old but likely to be mentioned), Rao, Ho

Some names for #2: Thapar, Ho (again), Rao (again), Lagoa, Lee, Nalbandian, Park, Bumatay

My personal bet is DeSantis or Trump will elevate someone very young to a circuit court and get that person positioned for a SCOTUS nomination.

[Anonymous User]

The man, the myth, the legend: Steven James Menashi.

I think Josh Hammer is the obvious pick.

Lol imagine the confirmation hearings. Lots of popcorn.

[Anonymous User]

Supreme Court Justice James Ho --> Horrifying thought

[Anonymous User]

If Thomas retires, guessing there will be some chatter about 1) his former clerks and 2) minority conservatives.

Some names for #1: Mizelle, Stras, Katsas (probably too old but likely to be mentioned), Rao, Ho

Some names for #2: Thapar, Ho (again), Rao (again), Lagoa, Lee, Nalbandian, Park, Bumatay

My personal bet is DeSantis or Trump will elevate someone very young to a circuit court and get that person positioned for a SCOTUS nomination.

This. Aditya Bamzai comes to mind.

[Anonymous User]

If Thomas retires, guessing there will be some chatter about 1) his former clerks and 2) minority conservatives.

Some names for #1: Mizelle, Stras, Katsas (probably too old but likely to be mentioned), Rao, Ho

Some names for #2: Thapar, Ho (again), Rao (again), Lagoa, Lee, Nalbandian, Park, Bumatay

My personal bet is DeSantis or Trump will elevate someone very young to a circuit court and get that person positioned for a SCOTUS nomination.

This. Aditya Bamzai comes to mind.

I have said this as a joke before, but if I could place wild futures bets on the next conservative Justice, it would be Sherif Girgis from Notre Dame. He'd probbaly still be too young for the next repoublican president, but Thomas and Alito might stick around for a bit.

[Anonymous User]

If Thomas retires, guessing there will be some chatter about 1) his former clerks and 2) minority conservatives.

Some names for #1: Mizelle, Stras, Katsas (probably too old but likely to be mentioned), Rao, Ho

Some names for #2: Thapar, Ho (again), Rao (again), Lagoa, Lee, Nalbandian, Park, Bumatay

My personal bet is DeSantis or Trump will elevate someone very young to a circuit court and get that person positioned for a SCOTUS nomination.

This. Aditya Bamzai comes to mind.

Impossible. He went to UChicago.

[Anonymous User]

If Thomas retires, guessing there will be some chatter about 1) his former clerks and 2) minority conservatives.

Some names for #1: Mizelle, Stras, Katsas (probably too old but likely to be mentioned), Rao, Ho

Some names for #2: Thapar, Ho (again), Rao (again), Lagoa, Lee, Nalbandian, Park, Bumatay

My personal bet is DeSantis or Trump will elevate someone very young to a circuit court and get that person positioned for a SCOTUS nomination.

This. Aditya Bamzai comes to mind.

I heard Bamzai's name mentioned for the D.C. Circuit seat that went to Justin Walker, but I think he'd be a particularly strong candidate for a 4th Circuit seat. One Virginia judge there (Agee) seems more likely than not to go senior in the next Republican term, and Judge Wilkinson is at an age where it wouldn't be a surprise either.

[Anonymous User]

If Thomas retires, guessing there will be some chatter about 1) his former clerks and 2) minority conservatives.

Some names for #1: Mizelle, Stras, Katsas (probably too old but likely to be mentioned), Rao, Ho

Some names for #2: Thapar, Ho (again), Rao (again), Lagoa, Lee, Nalbandian, Park, Bumatay

My personal bet is DeSantis or Trump will elevate someone very young to a circuit court and get that person positioned for a SCOTUS nomination.

This. Aditya Bamzai comes to mind.

I heard Bamzai's name mentioned for the D.C. Circuit seat that went to Justin Walker, but I think he'd be a particularly strong candidate for a 4th Circuit seat. One Virginia judge there (Agee) seems more likely than not to go senior in the next Republican term, and Judge Wilkinson is at an age where it wouldn't be a surprise either.

Mizelle makes a lot of sense under this logic for a DeSantis.

[Anonymous User]

I'm not sure Desantis would adhere to expected conventions re: appointing people from specific demographics following the retirement of Justices of certain demographics. Part of his brand is not giving a fuck about stuff like that.

Also think the GOP has the age calculus down; they'd probably shoot for a 4-handle.

[Anonymous User]

True, but DeSantis also has strong marketing and optics instincts. And conservatives like to talk up minorities in their ranks. They see this, rightfully or wrongfully, as a counterpoint to identity politics. Think Candace Owens, Larry Elder, so on. Someone like Bamzai could hit a lot of notes, both in terms of age and other factors.

[Anonymous User]

Anyone who thinks DeSantis stands a chance at winning the 2024 Republican primary doesn't have an ounce of political intuition. Unless Trump dies, it's gonna be Trump. And even if he does die, DeSantis is by no means a guarantee. We have a little under two years until the primaries begin. A lot can happen.

[Anonymous User]

Anyone who thinks DeSantis stands a chance at winning the 2024 Republican primary doesn't have an ounce of political intuition. Unless Trump dies, it's gonna be Trump. And even if he does die, DeSantis is by no means a guarantee. We have a little under two years until the primaries begin. A lot can happen.

Just wrong. The hardest core cons have already moved on. The rest will follow. Desantis leads Trump in NH 2024 primary polling as of today (I think it might be the first 2024 primary poll out).

Trump can still win ofc. But anyone's been following GOP primaries this cycle can see his influence waning. People also like to bet on winners, not losers, and when Trump is still moaning about 2020 in 2023 he will look the loser.

[Anonymous User]

But anyone's been following GOP primaries this cycle can see his influence waning.

Poll after poll demonstrates that Trump has 2024 in the bag if he runs. Will DeSantis have some followers and pick up some delegates in the beginning? Yes. But even with Trump's waning influence, many polls indicate that the plurality, if not majority, of Republican voters have Trump as their first pick in the primary. A recent MorningConsult poll put Trump at 53% and DeSantis at 16%. And keep in mind that DeSantis's popularity stems largely from his anti-lockdown stances (and to some degree his Don't Say Gay crusade). We have no clue whether that'll be enough to keep him popular through to 2024.

For what it's worth, too, early NH primary polls are not a good indication of what's to come in a primary. Polls conducted in early 2015 had Jeb Bush and Scott Walker in the lead in the NH primary. And...we all know what happened.

I would bet my life that unless Trump dies, he's the 2024 GOP pick.

[Anonymous User]

There is no reason to believe DeSantis wouldn't just pick whoever Leonard Leo & Company advised was a good choice. His picks for the Florida Supreme Court and his own staff are all fairly well-known FedSoc members. And there isn't much reason to go outside the bench, everyone that FedSoc national wanted to get an appointment got one - the only ones left outstanding that I can even think of are Kate Todd, who only wanted DC Circuit/SCOTUS, and Jonathan Papik in Nebraska.

[Anonymous User]

There is no reason to believe DeSantis wouldn't just pick whoever Leonard Leo & Company advised was a good choice. His picks for the Florida Supreme Court and his own staff are all fairly well-known FedSoc members. And there isn't much reason to go outside the bench, everyone that FedSoc national wanted to get an appointment got one - the only ones left outstanding that I can even think of are Kate Todd, who only wanted DC Circuit/SCOTUS, and Jonathan Papik in Nebraska.

No idea whether that's based on inside intel, but if it is, thanks for clarifying the biggest Trump shortlist mystery--why Indiana native Kate Todd wasn't given ACB's 7th Circuit seat after being reportedly a finalist for SCOTUS.

[Anonymous User]

There is no reason to believe DeSantis wouldn't just pick whoever Leonard Leo & Company advised was a good choice. His picks for the Florida Supreme Court and his own staff are all fairly well-known FedSoc members. And there isn't much reason to go outside the bench, everyone that FedSoc national wanted to get an appointment got one - the only ones left outstanding that I can even think of are Kate Todd, who only wanted DC Circuit/SCOTUS, and Jonathan Papik in Nebraska.

No idea whether that's based on inside intel, but if it is, thanks for clarifying the biggest Trump shortlist mystery--why Indiana native Kate Todd wasn't given ACB's 7th Circuit seat after being reportedly a finalist for SCOTUS.

It is not, but I don't think Kate Todd has lived in Indiana for almost 30 years at this point, so it's not crazy to assume that she didn't want to uproot her family for a seat she wasn't crazy about. She can get any political appointment in a future admin she wants.