Post-Biden SCOTUS Shortlist Forum

[Anonymous User]

If Thapar was going to be nominated he would have gotten Kavanaugh or Barrett's seat. Mitch McConnell isn't going to run for reelection, CA6 is mostly irrelevant nationally. Feeder status has never been that important for SCOTUS nominations.

Asked and answered above in this thread, and the CA6 point is so categorically false it barely merits a mention.

[Anonymous User]

If Thapar was going to be nominated he would have gotten Kavanaugh or Barrett's seat. Mitch McConnell isn't going to run for reelection, CA6 is mostly irrelevant nationally. Feeder status has never been that important for SCOTUS nominations.

No male was getting Barrett's seat. Thapar was a finalist, with Kethledge and Barrett, for Kavanaugh's seat but it's pretty broadly understood that Kennedy was retiring on the understanding Kav would replace him.

So much depends on who the next Republican president is and when, but Kethledge has aged out, while Thapar would be right at the top of the age bracket (56) for an opening in spring 2025. For now, he has the advantage of being one of the two most recognizable names among Trump appointees (Katsas is the other and is too old). The deeper into the next Republican presidency we go, the more time the younger Trump judges (Grant, Oldham, etc.) will have to start outshining him, the older we'll get, and the better the odds will be that the new president will just pick someone s/he put on the CoA bench (like Barrett and Jackson).

[Anonymous User]

Mathematically, I don't understand the obsession with 40somethings. Sure, it's cool to be on the court for 30, 40 years. But the cycle of administrations isn't that long. So long as you have a 12 year shelf life and retire gracefully when your side is in power, the age shouldn't matter. The court shifted conservative because Kennedy retired (despite not even being conservative) and RBG didn't, not because Clarence Thomas was 43.

[Anonymous User]

If Thapar was going to be nominated he would have gotten Kavanaugh or Barrett's seat. Mitch McConnell isn't going to run for reelection, CA6 is mostly irrelevant nationally. Feeder status has never been that important for SCOTUS nominations.

Asked and answered above in this thread, and the CA6 point is so categorically false it barely merits a mention.

This. Lol CA6 is the beating heart of the conservative legal movement, along with CA5 and, to a lesser extent, CA11. I'd probably give a slight edge to CA6 over CA5 based on the depth of young conservative firepower in CA6, but reasonable minds can disagree on that.

[Anonymous User]

If Thapar was going to be nominated he would have gotten Kavanaugh or Barrett's seat. Mitch McConnell isn't going to run for reelection, CA6 is mostly irrelevant nationally. Feeder status has never been that important for SCOTUS nominations.

Asked and answered above in this thread, and the CA6 point is so categorically false it barely merits a mention.

This. Lol CA6 is the beating heart of the conservative legal movement, along with CA5 and, to a lesser extent, CA11. I'd probably give a slight edge to CA6 over CA5 based on the depth of young conservative firepower in CA6, but reasonable minds can disagree on that.

One Sixth Circuit judge has been elevated to the Supreme Court since 1900.

[Anonymous User]

If Thapar was going to be nominated he would have gotten Kavanaugh or Barrett's seat. Mitch McConnell isn't going to run for reelection, CA6 is mostly irrelevant nationally. Feeder status has never been that important for SCOTUS nominations.

Asked and answered above in this thread, and the CA6 point is so categorically false it barely merits a mention.

This. Lol CA6 is the beating heart of the conservative legal movement, along with CA5 and, to a lesser extent, CA11. I'd probably give a slight edge to CA6 over CA5 based on the depth of young conservative firepower in CA6, but reasonable minds can disagree on that.

One Sixth Circuit judge has been elevated to the Supreme Court since 1900.

I once heard a COA judge tell a group of people never to trust a circuit divisible by 3.

[Anonymous User]

If Thapar was going to be nominated he would have gotten Kavanaugh or Barrett's seat. Mitch McConnell isn't going to run for reelection, CA6 is mostly irrelevant nationally. Feeder status has never been that important for SCOTUS nominations.

Asked and answered above in this thread, and the CA6 point is so categorically false it barely merits a mention.

This. Lol CA6 is the beating heart of the conservative legal movement, along with CA5 and, to a lesser extent, CA11. I'd probably give a slight edge to CA6 over CA5 based on the depth of young conservative firepower in CA6, but reasonable minds can disagree on that.

One Sixth Circuit judge has been elevated to the Supreme Court since 1900.

That means nothing. Small sample size. DC Circuit gets some advantage but most of it is in-built (the most qualified lawyers all else being equal live there, they can schmooze most effectively, get the best clerks). If you can overcome those constraints, it shouldn't matter which circuit you're in.

[Anonymous User]

If Thapar was going to be nominated he would have gotten Kavanaugh or Barrett's seat. Mitch McConnell isn't going to run for reelection, CA6 is mostly irrelevant nationally. Feeder status has never been that important for SCOTUS nominations.

Asked and answered above in this thread, and the CA6 point is so categorically false it barely merits a mention.

This. Lol CA6 is the beating heart of the conservative legal movement, along with CA5 and, to a lesser extent, CA11. I'd probably give a slight edge to CA6 over CA5 based on the depth of young conservative firepower in CA6, but reasonable minds can disagree on that.

One Sixth Circuit judge has been elevated to the Supreme Court since 1900.

Also true of the Ninth!

[Chokenhauer]

If Thapar was going to be nominated he would have gotten Kavanaugh or Barrett's seat. Mitch McConnell isn't going to run for reelection, CA6 is mostly irrelevant nationally. Feeder status has never been that important for SCOTUS nominations.

Asked and answered above in this thread, and the CA6 point is so categorically false it barely merits a mention.

This. Lol CA6 is the beating heart of the conservative legal movement, along with CA5 and, to a lesser extent, CA11. I'd probably give a slight edge to CA6 over CA5 based on the depth of young conservative firepower in CA6, but reasonable minds can disagree on that.

One Sixth Circuit judge has been elevated to the Supreme Court since 1900.

I once heard a COA judge tell a group of people never to trust a circuit divisible by 3.

I’m gonna need some context

[Anonymous User]

If Thapar was going to be nominated he would have gotten Kavanaugh or Barrett's seat. Mitch McConnell isn't going to run for reelection, CA6 is mostly irrelevant nationally. Feeder status has never been that important for SCOTUS nominations.

Asked and answered above in this thread, and the CA6 point is so categorically false it barely merits a mention.

This. Lol CA6 is the beating heart of the conservative legal movement, along with CA5 and, to a lesser extent, CA11. I'd probably give a slight edge to CA6 over CA5 based on the depth of young conservative firepower in CA6, but reasonable minds can disagree on that.

One Sixth Circuit judge has been elevated to the Supreme Court since 1900.

I once heard a COA judge tell a group of people never to trust a circuit divisible by 3.

I’m gonna need some context

It was a courthouse orientation for clerks. I don't remember the context, probably something about research and outside authority and such, but the statement "never trust a circuit divisible by 3" was definitely said. (Obviously not in one of those circuits.)

[Anonymous User]

If Thapar was going to be nominated he would have gotten Kavanaugh or Barrett's seat. Mitch McConnell isn't going to run for reelection, CA6 is mostly irrelevant nationally. Feeder status has never been that important for SCOTUS nominations.

Asked and answered above in this thread, and the CA6 point is so categorically false it barely merits a mention.

This. Lol CA6 is the beating heart of the conservative legal movement, along with CA5 and, to a lesser extent, CA11. I'd probably give a slight edge to CA6 over CA5 based on the depth of young conservative firepower in CA6, but reasonable minds can disagree on that.

One Sixth Circuit judge has been elevated to the Supreme Court since 1900.

I once heard a COA judge tell a group of people never to trust a circuit divisible by 3.

I’m gonna need some context

It was a courthouse orientation for clerks. I don't remember the context, probably something about research and outside authority and such, but the statement "never trust a circuit divisible by 3" was definitely said. (Obviously not in one of those circuits.)

The Sixth and Ninth used to be the most frequently-reversed circuits, but that’s probably over with respect to the Sixth now that it’s so aligned with the SCOTUS majority

[Anonymous User]

Yeah but why the third though, what'd they do.

[Anonymous User]

Asked and answered above in this thread, and the CA6 point is so categorically false it barely merits a mention.

This. Lol CA6 is the beating heart of the conservative legal movement, along with CA5 and, to a lesser extent, CA11. I'd probably give a slight edge to CA6 over CA5 based on the depth of young conservative firepower in CA6, but reasonable minds can disagree on that.

One Sixth Circuit judge has been elevated to the Supreme Court since 1900.

I once heard a COA judge tell a group of people never to trust a circuit divisible by 3.

I’m gonna need some context

It was a courthouse orientation for clerks. I don't remember the context, probably something about research and outside authority and such, but the statement "never trust a circuit divisible by 3" was definitely said. (Obviously not in one of those circuits.)

The Sixth and Ninth used to be the most frequently-reversed circuits, but that’s probably over with respect to the Sixth now that it’s so aligned with the SCOTUS majority

The Third Circuit

[Anonymous User]

Yeah but why the third though, what'd they do.

They know what they did... (ಠ_ಠ)

[Anonymous User]

If Thapar was going to be nominated he would have gotten Kavanaugh or Barrett's seat. Mitch McConnell isn't going to run for reelection, CA6 is mostly irrelevant nationally. Feeder status has never been that important for SCOTUS nominations.

Asked and answered above in this thread, and the CA6 point is so categorically false it barely merits a mention.

This. Lol CA6 is the beating heart of the conservative legal movement, along with CA5 and, to a lesser extent, CA11. I'd probably give a slight edge to CA6 over CA5 based on the depth of young conservative firepower in CA6, but reasonable minds can disagree on that.

One Sixth Circuit judge has been elevated to the Supreme Court since 1900.

And....? The modern conservative legal movement is a recent phenomenon, and it really picked up steam during the Trump years. There's really no precedent. And that movement happens to be concentrated most heavily in places like the Sixth and the Fifth.

Incidentally, these are the regions that matter a ton to modern Republican politics. The Fifth has Texas, which is the crown jewel of the Republican Party. The Sixth (Appalachia, along with key swing states like Ohio) is critical to the party's populist base. The Eleventh covers the Deep South.

[Anonymous User]

If Thapar was going to be nominated he would have gotten Kavanaugh or Barrett's seat. Mitch McConnell isn't going to run for reelection, CA6 is mostly irrelevant nationally. Feeder status has never been that important for SCOTUS nominations.

Asked and answered above in this thread, and the CA6 point is so categorically false it barely merits a mention.

This. Lol CA6 is the beating heart of the conservative legal movement, along with CA5 and, to a lesser extent, CA11. I'd probably give a slight edge to CA6 over CA5 based on the depth of young conservative firepower in CA6, but reasonable minds can disagree on that.

One Sixth Circuit judge has been elevated to the Supreme Court since 1900.

And....? The modern conservative legal movement is a recent phenomenon, and it really picked up steam during the Trump years. There's really no precedent. And that movement happens to be concentrated most heavily in places like the Sixth and the Fifth.

Incidentally, these are the regions that matter a ton to modern Republican politics. The Fifth has Texas, which is the crown jewel of the Republican Party. The Sixth (Appalachia, along with key swing states like Ohio) is critical to the party's populist base. The Eleventh covers the Deep South.

Yeah and McConnell made filling his home circuit (CA6) with his people a priority, and we all know how efficient he is at getting people on the bench. If DeSantis becomes president, the CA11's stock will go up further, since it includes Florida.

[Anonymous User]

If Thapar was going to be nominated he would have gotten Kavanaugh or Barrett's seat. Mitch McConnell isn't going to run for reelection, CA6 is mostly irrelevant nationally. Feeder status has never been that important for SCOTUS nominations.

Asked and answered above in this thread, and the CA6 point is so categorically false it barely merits a mention.

This. Lol CA6 is the beating heart of the conservative legal movement, along with CA5 and, to a lesser extent, CA11. I'd probably give a slight edge to CA6 over CA5 based on the depth of young conservative firepower in CA6, but reasonable minds can disagree on that.

One Sixth Circuit judge has been elevated to the Supreme Court since 1900.

And....? The modern conservative legal movement is a recent phenomenon, and it really picked up steam during the Trump years. There's really no precedent. And that movement happens to be concentrated most heavily in places like the Sixth and the Fifth.

Incidentally, these are the regions that matter a ton to modern Republican politics. The Fifth has Texas, which is the crown jewel of the Republican Party. The Sixth (Appalachia, along with key swing states like Ohio) is critical to the party's populist base. The Eleventh covers the Deep South.

Yeah and McConnell made filling his home circuit (CA6) with his people a priority, and we all know how efficient he is at getting people on the bench. If DeSantis becomes president, the CA11's stock will go up further, since it includes Florida.

Personally, I think the prestige/significance of circuits is irrelevant as it relates to SCOTUS prospects. CA10 is pretty sleepy, but Gorsuch was on everyone's "next Republican Justice" list from the early 2010's on. CA7 isn't exactly synonymous with modern judicial conservatism, but no one really thought of Barrett as a "Seventh Circuit Judge," her credentials were her own.

The DC Circuit is different because: 1. it has the most SCOTUS-like docket; 2. presidents tend to appoint the shiniest nominees there; 3. its judges live and work in Washington DC, alongside all of the people involved in selecting SCOTUS nominees. But otherwise it's a wash. There's been exactly one Justice from each of CA2 and CA9 in the last 60 years.