Does anyone have any intel on how the first draft of Alito's opinion leaked to the press??? Holy shit!!!
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/0 ... n-00029473
Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Forum
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Re: Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health
The opinion itself is hardly surprising (we've all known this was coming when Ginsburg died back in September of 2020), but the leak is interesting though - I'm sure whoever leaked this has a goal in mind, and these are just my initial thoughts on what that might be:
The media frenzy around this assumes that the leak was someone who was against the decision, but that makes no sense to me - what would they be expecting to accomplish by leaking something that was going to come out in a month anyway? Mobilize liberal voters/spur the Dems into action? Given the Dems' failure to do anything meaningful in the last year-and-a-half (and any legislation would depend on famously anti-abortion Joe Manchin), I doubt anybody in chambers is that naive.
The idea of one of the conservatives (or someone in their chambers) leaking this makes more sense - and honestly seems like a smart tactical move. The positive reaction from the right would likely keep anyone on the fence (if there is anyone - I don't know who that would be. Kavanaugh?) in line. Also, if someone does flip and join what I would assume to be a Roberts opinion, it helps the conservatives demonstrate what they would've gotten away with if it weren't for that meddling John Roberts. Furthermore, if the final opinion ends up being anything less extreme than this, then it will seem much more moderate/acceptable in comparison even if it strikes down Roe.
My biggest surprise is that Thomas assigned this to Alito rather than himself or Barrett to be honest - I thought the conservatives would make the most of having a woman overturn Roe.
The media frenzy around this assumes that the leak was someone who was against the decision, but that makes no sense to me - what would they be expecting to accomplish by leaking something that was going to come out in a month anyway? Mobilize liberal voters/spur the Dems into action? Given the Dems' failure to do anything meaningful in the last year-and-a-half (and any legislation would depend on famously anti-abortion Joe Manchin), I doubt anybody in chambers is that naive.
The idea of one of the conservatives (or someone in their chambers) leaking this makes more sense - and honestly seems like a smart tactical move. The positive reaction from the right would likely keep anyone on the fence (if there is anyone - I don't know who that would be. Kavanaugh?) in line. Also, if someone does flip and join what I would assume to be a Roberts opinion, it helps the conservatives demonstrate what they would've gotten away with if it weren't for that meddling John Roberts. Furthermore, if the final opinion ends up being anything less extreme than this, then it will seem much more moderate/acceptable in comparison even if it strikes down Roe.
My biggest surprise is that Thomas assigned this to Alito rather than himself or Barrett to be honest - I thought the conservatives would make the most of having a woman overturn Roe.
