SCOTUS Nominees Under a Future Republican Administration? Forum

[Anonymous User]

If the Senate is controlled by Democrats with a Republican President, I highly doubt any of the names mentioned upthread are going to be confirmed, especially if it's Breyer's seat that is being filled. Judicial moderates appointed by Trump might stand a chance, maybe some of the folks he appointed to the 7th or 3rd CCs. Other than that, I don't think the firebrands would even come up for a vote (i.e., the Mitch McConnell precedent of not holding hearings for Garland).

The odds of a Democratic Senate and Republican President are basically 0, but in that eventuality, I wouldn't be shocked if Manchin was willing to vote for e.g. Grant or Stras (or even Thapar, who's kind-of-sort-of from his neck of the woods)

Agree with you that there's no chance of a Democratic Senate/Republican President, but Manchin's term ends in 2024 and it seems highly unlikely that he'll win WV in a presidential election year (if he even runs again). Also seems likely that Sinema either loses a primary or is beaten by a Republican in 2024 too, so I doubt there will be any Dem senators willing to buck party leadership and push for a vote that the majority of the party opposes - McConnell didn't even allow a vote on Garland in 16, and even with how weak the Dems are as a party, I'm sure Schumer or his successor would do the same.

[nostreempereremagnes]

Tbh the GOP is more age-conscious than the Dems. Also I'm guessing Alito/Thomas won't retire until the late 2020s or early 2030s (I believe the latter vowed to serve until the 30s), so any candidate born before the 70s is unlikely imo.

Concur with the Rushing and Grant suggestions. They'll still be young women in the late 20s/early 30s when Alito/Thomas retires. Ditto for Kovner and Pacold, but the former also worked in the SG's office under Obama so idk.

I'm guessing Ken Lee and Michael Park have fair shots considering their minority status. The former is close to Tom Cotton (who seems to have a fair bit of influence in the Senate) and wrote a high-profile opinion striking down CA's high capacity magazine ban.

Also ofc Richardson for the Dylann Roof prosecution.

[Anonymous User]

Here's a good proxy for a shortlist; all the active federal judges (and senators) under 50 years old who were speakers at the last Fed Soc National Lawyers Convention:

Britt Grant, Chad Readler, James Ho, Lawrence VanDyke, Tom Cotton, Kyle Duncan, Eric Murphy, Steven Menashi, David Stras, Kevin Newsom, Andrew Oldham, Neomi Rao, Kenneth Lee.

If a Republican wins in '24 that's a pretty good list. If it's not until '28 or later, the pick is unlikely to be someone on anyone's radar now.

[Anonymous User]

Idle speculation, but presumably the Supreme Court will overturn Roe/Casey this June. Does that change conservative legal priorities, and who gets elevated in conservative circles? IME Republicans at my law school included religious types, deregulatory libertarians, and 90s-00s neocons who loved the cops and the national security state. What wing of the movement will have the most energy going forward?

[Anonymous User]

Idle speculation, but presumably the Supreme Court will overturn Roe/Casey this June. Does that change conservative legal priorities, and who gets elevated in conservative circles? IME Republicans at my law school included religious types, deregulatory libertarians, and 90s-00s neocons who loved the cops and the national security state. What wing of the movement will have the most energy going forward?

I think this is a great question. The Republican "deregulation" faction got their wish with Gorsuch, but I am not sure they would go for the same thing today. My guess is that you'd see a push for social conservative/religious type, but I have no inside info here.

[Anonymous User]

Idle speculation, but presumably the Supreme Court will overturn Roe/Casey this June. Does that change conservative legal priorities, and who gets elevated in conservative circles? IME Republicans at my law school included religious types, deregulatory libertarians, and 90s-00s neocons who loved the cops and the national security state. What wing of the movement will have the most energy going forward?

I think this is a great question. The Republican "deregulation" faction got their wish with Gorsuch, but I am not sure they would go for the same thing today. My guess is that you'd see a push for social conservative/religious type, but I have no inside info here.

My guess is it'll be a social con. The deregulation-focused Republicans are on the downswing because it's seen as cooler to be a "Populist Republican" (not that I think it'll actually play out in any policy discussions, but it's interesting posturing). Plus there's that whole new Common-Good Constitutionalism movement on the Right, which, I don't know if it'll actually become mainstream. But certain judges and academics have certainly embraced it in recent years.

At any rate, the culture war seems to have more purchase than ever these days....and not just on the right side of the aisle.

[Anonymous User]

What judges have embraced the common good thing? Is it just Kyle Duncan?

[Anonymous User]

What judges have embraced the common good thing? Is it just Kyle Duncan?

If you ask Vermeule, they all have, and they just don't know it yet. Realistically, none have publicly adopted it, but there are some opinions that you can see through. For example, Alito's opinions in Snyder v. Phelps and the animal crush case could be seen as veering into common good constitutionalism, which makes sense given that First Amendment jurisprudence is pretty much all common law-esque anyway.