Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions Forum

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Apr 14, 2022 6:20 pm

lavarman84 wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 1:29 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:58 am
Rawlinson on CA9 gave an interview saying that she was considering going senior but wants Biden to choose one of her former clerks, not use a committee
Gotta respect the courage there lol.
Yeah I don't understand why she did this - I'm sure the administration does not want to seem like it was pressured into selecting a candidate by the judge. I would imagine that Rawlinson has told the administration her preference already, and I'm not seeing why going public would be more helpful.

Between Kanne, King, and now Rawlinson, this seems to be a growing trend among judges. Anyone have any theories for why this is?

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Apr 14, 2022 7:03 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 6:20 pm
lavarman84 wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 1:29 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:58 am
Rawlinson on CA9 gave an interview saying that she was considering going senior but wants Biden to choose one of her former clerks, not use a committee
Gotta respect the courage there lol.
Yeah I don't understand why she did this - I'm sure the administration does not want to seem like it was pressured into selecting a candidate by the judge. I would imagine that Rawlinson has told the administration her preference already, and I'm not seeing why going public would be more helpful.

Between Kanne, King, and now Rawlinson, this seems to be a growing trend among judges. Anyone have any theories for why this is?
Droney did this, albeit much more quietly, on CA2 with Nardini.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:26 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 7:03 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 6:20 pm
lavarman84 wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 1:29 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:58 am
Rawlinson on CA9 gave an interview saying that she was considering going senior but wants Biden to choose one of her former clerks, not use a committee
Gotta respect the courage there lol.
Yeah I don't understand why she did this - I'm sure the administration does not want to seem like it was pressured into selecting a candidate by the judge. I would imagine that Rawlinson has told the administration her preference already, and I'm not seeing why going public would be more helpful.

Between Kanne, King, and now Rawlinson, this seems to be a growing trend among judges. Anyone have any theories for why this is?
Droney did this, albeit much more quietly, on CA2 with Nardini.
Huh

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2AC03H

I guess that explains why Trump chose such a seemingly moderate judge. It also seems less seedy to go with “pick a mainstream highly-qualified lawyer that I respect” than the more nepotistic “pick my clerk” that other judges have done

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Apr 15, 2022 10:16 am

My first reaction as a citizen was that a norm of judges picking their successors is terrible and undemocratic. But my second reaction as a liberal is that I’d much rather have GWB or even most Trump appointees doing it than a Republican White House Counsel’s office.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu May 12, 2022 7:26 pm

Oof, Gregory Williams had a rough hearing on the Kennedy pop quiz—he thought the Privileges or Immunities Clause is in the First Amendment and didn’t know what Obergefell decided. I know he’s a patent lawyer, but…

Also a bit surprised that John Lee didn't nail the precise Chevron rule, but I'd guess that hard admin problems almost never come up in NDIL

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Wild Card » Fri May 13, 2022 1:03 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:26 pm
Oof, Gregory Williams had a rough hearing on the Kennedy pop quiz—he thought the Privileges or Immunities Clause is in the First Amendment and didn’t know what Obergefell decided. I know he’s a patent lawyer, but…

Also a bit surprised that John Lee didn't nail the precise Chevron rule, but I'd guess that hard admin problems almost never come up in NDIL
IIRC, Kennedy asked either Perez or Lee (2d Cir.) whether the parties may waive subject matter jurisdiction, and she couldn't answer, so w/e.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri May 13, 2022 10:31 am

Surprising there wasn't another set of nominees this month. They're falling way behind.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Chokenhauer » Fri May 13, 2022 3:32 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri May 13, 2022 10:31 am
Surprising there wasn't another set of nominees this month. They're falling way behind.
Dems are ineffective at capitalizing on judges, what else is new? In all honesty, I imagine campaigning distracted most of them from pushing these judges through.

What I’m wondering is whether the judges that have announced senior status will rescind it once Biden fails to get anyone else through. I also wonder if the nominees on the floor (Mathis & Davis) get through before the end of the year. I’m confident on Davis, but maybe R Senators have some pull on getting anyone through without their support. Blue slips are dead and buried for circuit judges, but maybe Dems forgot that.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Sat May 28, 2022 11:58 am

From local media it appears that Raheem Mullins and Cristina Rodriguez are the finalists for the remaining CA2 seat. I would be very surprised if it isn’t Rodriguez.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by ignorantfoot33 » Mon May 30, 2022 2:32 pm

What happens if you apply for a district court judge who's nominated to a circuit position, get the district court clerkship with that judge, and then the judge is confirmed to the higher court before your clerkship begins?

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Mon May 30, 2022 2:46 pm

ignorantfoot33 wrote:
Mon May 30, 2022 2:32 pm
What happens if you apply for a district court judge who's nominated to a circuit position, get the district court clerkship with that judge, and then the judge is confirmed to the higher court before your clerkship begins?
Can’t think of a single judge who didn’t bring all their clerks along or set them up with another judge on the court

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Mon May 30, 2022 6:49 pm

Where on earth is Hurwitz's replacement? He gave notice in January.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Mon May 30, 2022 9:19 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Mon May 30, 2022 2:46 pm
ignorantfoot33 wrote:
Mon May 30, 2022 2:32 pm
What happens if you apply for a district court judge who's nominated to a circuit position, get the district court clerkship with that judge, and then the judge is confirmed to the higher court before your clerkship begins?
Can’t think of a single judge who didn’t bring all their clerks along or set them up with another judge on the court
Going district to circuit is purely additive of clerks - you go from 2 or 3 to 4 or 5. Some district judges will hire a former circuit clerk to fill one of those new spots because they want to be sure there's more experienced person for their first year being elevated, but no reason not to take up the district hires unless they wouldn't get trial clerkship experience any other way.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Mon May 30, 2022 11:18 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Mon May 30, 2022 6:49 pm
Where on earth is Hurwitz's replacement? He gave notice in January.
Biden's people have been taking forever with nominations this year. Thompson in Rhode Island gave notice last July and Cabranes in Connecticut gave notice last October, and they only nominated Thompson's replacement last month (Cabranes's seat still doesn't have a nomination, though posters have discussed that it might be Cristina Rodriguez). My guess is that he would elevate Rosemary Marquez on D. Ariz. if he ever gets to it.

There's a real chance he won't be able to fill some of the open circuit seats before the midterms though, and I'm very concerned Hurwitz's seat will be one of them - god knows nothing is easy with that nutjob Sinema.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:58 pm

Is it likely that a wave of retirements will come if the Republicans win the midterms? If so, from which party?

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:06 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:58 pm
Is it likely that a wave of retirements will come if the Republicans win the midterms? If so, from which party?
Why? No one except consensus choices would be able to get through the Senate

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:34 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:06 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:58 pm
Is it likely that a wave of retirements will come if the Republicans win the midterms? If so, from which party?
Why? No one except consensus choices would be able to get through the Senate
No chance - everyone knows that McConnell won't let any Dem appointees through, especially on the appeals courts (I think he allowed 2 of Obama's COA nominees to be confirmed from 2014-16? Or maybe 3). The more ideologically inclined judges of either party would probably prefer to wait 2 years and see who wins in 2024. Unless they're just tired of the job/can no longer physically do it, there's no reason for any judge to go senior after the midterms who weren't already going to anyways.

Honestly, McConnell will probably block a lot of district court nominees too, even if they're centrists, Just as an example, he didn't allow a vote on Florence Pan's nomination to DDC back in 2016, and she was confirmed with 60+ votes last year. I'd expect very few new judges to be confirmed at all after this November no matter how many judges go senior - regardless of your ideology, that's not great for clerkship applicants.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:37 pm

Have an interview coming up with D.Ct judge who just got through committee to be on court of appeals. I assume im interviewing for Circuit Court, right?

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:32 pm

Tbh super weird for the MA senators to sign off on a nominee who had never practiced in their state. From what I can tell Rikelman has spent her whole career in Alaska and New York.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Jul 29, 2022 11:25 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:32 pm
Tbh super weird for the MA senators to sign off on a nominee who had never practiced in their state. From what I can tell Rikelman has spent her whole career in Alaska and New York.
I figured they would sign off on her just to help the Biden administration regain clout after the Chad Meredith debacle.

I’m curious how Montecalvo and Rikelman, if confirmed, (which may be a big “if,” considering the Democrats’ aversion to using their power) will add to CA1. While the judges there were mostly appointed by Democrats, it doesn’t have the same progressive, far-reaching decisions of the 4th/9th. It’ll be interesting to see if these more progressive nominees will have any impact on their decisions or if the, frankly, saner and cautious, “don’t attract attention” approach that CA1 has adopted will win out.

Considering the Harvard admissions, Maine vouchers, and Boston flagpole cases, perhaps they’re on a collision course with the inevitable conclusion of fifty years of conservative judicial activism.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Jul 29, 2022 11:28 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 11:25 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:32 pm
Tbh super weird for the MA senators to sign off on a nominee who had never practiced in their state. From what I can tell Rikelman has spent her whole career in Alaska and New York.
I figured they would sign off on her just to help the Biden administration regain clout after the Chad Meredith debacle.

I’m curious how Montecalvo and Rikelman, if confirmed, (which may be a big “if,” considering the Democrats’ aversion to using their power) will add to CA1. While the judges there were mostly appointed by Democrats, it doesn’t have the same progressive, far-reaching decisions of the 4th/9th. It’ll be interesting to see if these more progressive nominees will have any impact on their decisions or if the, frankly, saner and cautious, “don’t attract attention” approach that CA1 has adopted will win out.

Considering the Harvard admissions, Maine vouchers, and Boston flagpole cases, perhaps they’re on a collision course with the inevitable conclusion of fifty years of conservative judicial activism.
I assume something like that, but a CA2 seat (albeit a CT one) was announced the same day, which would seem much more natural

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Jul 29, 2022 11:30 pm

I suspect one big reason for her nomination was to keep Dobbs in the news. Fighting over the lawyer who argued the case may helps dems in the primaries.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Jul 29, 2022 11:44 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 11:25 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:32 pm
Tbh super weird for the MA senators to sign off on a nominee who had never practiced in their state. From what I can tell Rikelman has spent her whole career in Alaska and New York.
I figured they would sign off on her just to help the Biden administration regain clout after the Chad Meredith debacle.

I’m curious how Montecalvo and Rikelman, if confirmed, (which may be a big “if,” considering the Democrats’ aversion to using their power) will add to CA1. While the judges there were mostly appointed by Democrats, it doesn’t have the same progressive, far-reaching decisions of the 4th/9th. It’ll be interesting to see if these more progressive nominees will have any impact on their decisions or if the, frankly, saner and cautious, “don’t attract attention” approach that CA1 has adopted will win out.

Considering the Harvard admissions, Maine vouchers, and Boston flagpole cases, perhaps they’re on a collision course with the inevitable conclusion of fifty years of conservative judicial activism.
The world’s most pointless freak out. It’s not like senate Republicans threw a fit over Mary Rowland being nominated by Trump. Deals get cut for district court nominees all the time.

CA1 is already incredibly liberal - replacing Thompson or Carney with Rikelman doesn’t affect the outcome of any case, aside from maybe tone.

Cheering up Dems, even though her advocacy for Dobbs was odd at best, as the above poster says, seems more likely.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:45 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 11:44 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 11:25 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:32 pm
Tbh super weird for the MA senators to sign off on a nominee who had never practiced in their state. From what I can tell Rikelman has spent her whole career in Alaska and New York.
I figured they would sign off on her just to help the Biden administration regain clout after the Chad Meredith debacle.

I’m curious how Montecalvo and Rikelman, if confirmed, (which may be a big “if,” considering the Democrats’ aversion to using their power) will add to CA1. While the judges there were mostly appointed by Democrats, it doesn’t have the same progressive, far-reaching decisions of the 4th/9th. It’ll be interesting to see if these more progressive nominees will have any impact on their decisions or if the, frankly, saner and cautious, “don’t attract attention” approach that CA1 has adopted will win out.

Considering the Harvard admissions, Maine vouchers, and Boston flagpole cases, perhaps they’re on a collision course with the inevitable conclusion of fifty years of conservative judicial activism.
The world’s most pointless freak out. It’s not like senate Republicans threw a fit over Mary Rowland being nominated by Trump. Deals get cut for district court nominees all the time.

CA1 is already incredibly liberal - replacing Thompson or Carney with Rikelman doesn’t affect the outcome of any case, aside from maybe tone.

Cheering up Dems, even though her advocacy for Dobbs was odd at best, as the above poster says, seems more likely.
The difference here is there was no deal - Biden was just doing McConnell a "personal favor" and getting nothing in return (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/us/p ... rtion.html)...because McConnell has clearly done Dems so many personal favors during both Obama's presidency and this one?

Rowland is very clearly not comparable. Illinois has a long tradition of the president's party getting 2 district court picks to the senators' party's 1 (where the president and at least one senator are of different parties), so the Republicans got Seeger and Pacold in return for Rowland. The better comparison would have been Trump nominating Rikelman to SDNY or EDNY has a favor to Schumer. There probably would've been less pushback if (1) the news had not come out after Dobbs and (2) the Dems were actually getting something in exchange for putting a Fed Soc nut on the bench, but that was not the case here.

Lynch is very pro-corporations and pro-prosecution for Democratic appointee (as has been discussed on the CA1 thread), so Rikelman will likely move the circuit a bit to the left. She would've made more of a difference if she were replacing Cabranes on CA2, but long as she can get confirmed (no sure thing given Manchin's anti-abortion views and Schumer's laziness on COA nominees this year), it would be a big win for the left. I hope Biden/Schumer made sure they had the votes before they announced Rikelman, because nominating and then failing to get her confirmed would certainly not be a good look.

Also, let's not pretend any kind of oral argument was going to change the minds of those six hacks on Dobbs.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:59 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:45 pm
Also, let's not pretend any kind of oral argument was going to change the minds of those six hacks on Dobbs.
there is a zero percent chance the GOP would give a promotion to counsel of record to the loser of the biggest SCOTUS case of the century

Democrats have such a loser's attitude -- fatalism, zero accountability, 'we wouldn't have won anyway, deck's stacked against us' etc

like, what is Rikelman's job, if not to persuade Brett Kavanaugh (who, to be clear, is a piece of shit) to keep Roe/Casey alive?

mostly unrelated - I remember a few years ago reading a CA8 amicus brief by either the ACLU or CRR in a reproductive rights case, and the theme was like, the importance of abortion access to poor Black women. intersectionality nonsense that would at best be ignored by the panel, at worst actively annoy/undermine an otherwise semi-persuadable boomer judge. some of the litigation staff at the advocacy orgs (and law firms doing pro bono work) are just total trash -- no idea how to tailor an argument for the given audience.

Seriously? What are you waiting for?

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