Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions Forum
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
I just hope that nut Sinema doesn't mess things up with getting Hurwitz's replacement confirmed. She hasn't caused any trouble with judicial nominations yet, but I'm concerned that with her it's just a matter of time. And this is coming from someone who agrees with her more than the AOC/Sanders leftists - I don't know if she didn't get enough love from mommy & daddy as a child or whatever, but Sinema's attention-seeking antics are straight-up ridiculous.
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
I'm also worried that they won't get someone nominated in time.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Mon Mar 28, 2022 2:30 pmGreat to hear - now Biden just has to actually nominate someone to this seat (if he ever gets around to doing his job and actually nominating some people again...). Any ideas who the leading contenders are?Anonymous User wrote: ↑Sun Mar 27, 2022 11:56 pmIt'll be Washington. This was fought over when Steve Trott (California judge who moved to Idaho while on active status) went senior, and California ended up keeping the seat. So precedent means Washington keeps McKeown's seat.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Sun Mar 27, 2022 10:25 pmDoes anyone know what will happen with McKeown's seat on the 9th? She was nominated to fill a Washington seat since she was living in Seattle at the time, but later she moved to San Diego. If Biden (hopefully) gets around to nominating her replacement, will it be from Washington or California?
I hope the seat returns to Washington - partly for selfish reasons because I have ties there (and probably have a better - though still remote - chance with a 9th Circuit clerkship in Washington), but also because it really was originally a Washington seat. Right now, Washington only has 2 seats while Arizona (which has a smaller population) has 3.
My two thoughts: this could be a good seat for the first Native American court of appeals judge, and either Raquel Montoya-Lewis on the Washington Supreme Court or Lauren King on W.D. Wash. would be good candidates. The only issue is that Montoya-Lewis might be a little on the older side at 53ish, while Lauren King might be too new since she was only appointed to the federal bench at the end of last year.
Previously I would have guessed that Noah Purcell or Kathleen M. O'Sullivan would be candidates, but I don't think either is likely now. I agree that Lauren King or Montoya-Lewis would be interesting picks.
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
S. Thomas going senior on the 9th. Any with knowledge of the MT legal community know who a solid pick would be. Replacing a true giant.
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
A law prof who follows judicial nominations suggests it could be Montana Supreme Court Justice Jim Shea or D. Mont. judge Brian Morris: https://mobile.twitter.com/prof_jpc/sta ... TC1PApAAAA.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:53 pmS. Thomas going senior on the 9th. Any with knowledge of the MT legal community know who a solid pick would be. Replacing a true giant.
I think Jim Shea is more likely because he's a few years younger and used to be a public defender in Oregon, and Biden's nominated a lot of former PDs. Another good candidate might be Anthony Johnstone at the University of Montana Law (http://www.umt.edu/people/johnstone). He's a bit younger (49), a former S. Thomas clerk, and a former Solicitor General of Montana when Steve Bullock was Attorney General.
I wonder why Thomas waited until now to announce instead of announcing right after his term as Chief ended - at the Dems' slow pace, they may not be able to confirm someone before the midterms (and if the Dems lose the Senate, then this seat will remain open until at least 2024 and maybe even 2028).
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
I doubt Biden would be willing to nominate an SSC justice in a state with a Republican governor, especially with Dobbs on the horizon. The other two seem like strong possibilities, but who knows.
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
People in this thread seem to have forgotten that Biden is nominating and confirming judges at a historically unprecedented clip?
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
It’s easy to get greedy, given how quick the confirmations have been. It could be a lot worse (think W. Bush/Obama pace).Anonymous User wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:13 amPeople in this thread seem to have forgotten that Biden is nominating and confirming judges at a historically unprecedented clip?
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
*was. He was nominating judges at a good pace last year, but things have slowed way down this year. His last lower court nominee was announced on February 2nd, and that was a batch of exactly 1 COA nominee and 0 district court nominees. We can both give Biden credit for moving fast last year and be frustrated that he hasn't been able to keep up the pace.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:13 amPeople in this thread seem to have forgotten that Biden is nominating and confirming judges at a historically unprecedented clip?
In contrast, Trump nominated 2 COA judges while the Kavanaugh nomination was pending: https://twitter.com/prof_jpc/status/150 ... _ZyfApAAAA. I get things slowing down a little bit because of KBJ, but Biden should at least be keeping up with Trump's pace. He really ought to be exceeding Trump's pace, as the Dems are far more likely to lose the Senate this fall than the Republicans were in 2018.
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
The judiciary committee still has a few names to get through, but the pipeline will run dry in a few meetings.
It's also mind-boggling that the Senate hasn't gotten around to discharging a few of the names that are stuck in committee.
It's also mind-boggling that the Senate hasn't gotten around to discharging a few of the names that are stuck in committee.
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
This is some major hindsight bias. Everyone knew 2018 was going to be a deeply unfavorable environment for the R's, and though state polls trended their way at the end it was still somewhat of an upset that they held the Senate. Indiana/Missouri/Florida/North Dakota and even Texas (lol, Beto) were all at one point or another looking to be shading blue.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 5:29 pm*was. He was nominating judges at a good pace last year, but things have slowed way down this year. His last lower court nominee was announced on February 2nd, and that was a batch of exactly 1 COA nominee and 0 district court nominees. We can both give Biden credit for moving fast last year and be frustrated that he hasn't been able to keep up the pace.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:13 amPeople in this thread seem to have forgotten that Biden is nominating and confirming judges at a historically unprecedented clip?
In contrast, Trump nominated 2 COA judges while the Kavanaugh nomination was pending: https://twitter.com/prof_jpc/status/150 ... _ZyfApAAAA. I get things slowing down a little bit because of KBJ, but Biden should at least be keeping up with Trump's pace. He really ought to be exceeding Trump's pace, as the Dems are far more likely to lose the Senate this fall than the Republicans were in 2018.
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
There were certainly some uninformed pundits who thought the Dems were going to win the Senate in 2018 just based on vibes or momentum or whatever (I still remember folks thinking Taylor Swift's endorsement meaning the Dems could win in Tennessee...only for R's to win by 11 points). However, most people in the know were aware that the 2018 Senate map was horrible for Dems and they would be lucky to only lose a seat or two. I'm sure many folks were more optimistic about Dem chances than they should've been in hindsight, but 538's prediction forecast (to just take 1 example) consistently had R's favored to keep the Senate: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... st/senate/.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:06 amThis is some major hindsight bias. Everyone knew 2018 was going to be a deeply unfavorable environment for the R's, and though state polls trended their way at the end it was still somewhat of an upset that they held the Senate. Indiana/Missouri/Florida/North Dakota and even Texas (lol, Beto) were all at one point or another looking to be shading blue.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 5:29 pm*was. He was nominating judges at a good pace last year, but things have slowed way down this year. His last lower court nominee was announced on February 2nd, and that was a batch of exactly 1 COA nominee and 0 district court nominees. We can both give Biden credit for moving fast last year and be frustrated that he hasn't been able to keep up the pace.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:13 amPeople in this thread seem to have forgotten that Biden is nominating and confirming judges at a historically unprecedented clip?
In contrast, Trump nominated 2 COA judges while the Kavanaugh nomination was pending: https://twitter.com/prof_jpc/status/150 ... _ZyfApAAAA. I get things slowing down a little bit because of KBJ, but Biden should at least be keeping up with Trump's pace. He really ought to be exceeding Trump's pace, as the Dems are far more likely to lose the Senate this fall than the Republicans were in 2018.
But to get back on topic, does anyone think some of these judges will reverse their decision to take senior status if Biden doesn't fill them before the midterms and then McConnell blocks any nominations for the next 2+ years? I feel like most liberal judges wouldn't be so openly political, but I would hope some of them realize that anything is better (from a liberal judge's point of view) than letting their seats get filled by a Fed Soc hack in 2025 or 2029. I doubt most of the Trump nominees (with a few exceptions) would have any reservations about taking back senior status if a Republican president failed to fill the seat in time and then a Democratic president/Senate came along.
Also, if Kanne and King can take back going senior because of some tantrum about not getting to handpick their successors, then I'm wondering if other reasons will become fair game soon too.
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
It's not really relevant to the thread, but that only demonstrated some of the wishful thinking going on at the time. Florida was the only state that the Democrats should have won. And I'm not sure why we would lol at Beto. The past three senate races, not counting his 2.6% loss in 2018, in Texas were Republican wins by 9.6% (2020), 27.7% (2014), and 15.9% (2012). It's unfortunate that the insane people in Texas actually want to elect people like Ted Cruz. /tangentAnonymous User wrote: ↑Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:06 amThis is some major hindsight bias. Everyone knew 2018 was going to be a deeply unfavorable environment for the R's, and though state polls trended their way at the end it was still somewhat of an upset that they held the Senate. Indiana/Missouri/Florida/North Dakota and even Texas (lol, Beto) were all at one point or another looking to be shading blue.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 5:29 pm*was. He was nominating judges at a good pace last year, but things have slowed way down this year. His last lower court nominee was announced on February 2nd, and that was a batch of exactly 1 COA nominee and 0 district court nominees. We can both give Biden credit for moving fast last year and be frustrated that he hasn't been able to keep up the pace.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:13 amPeople in this thread seem to have forgotten that Biden is nominating and confirming judges at a historically unprecedented clip?
In contrast, Trump nominated 2 COA judges while the Kavanaugh nomination was pending: https://twitter.com/prof_jpc/status/150 ... _ZyfApAAAA. I get things slowing down a little bit because of KBJ, but Biden should at least be keeping up with Trump's pace. He really ought to be exceeding Trump's pace, as the Dems are far more likely to lose the Senate this fall than the Republicans were in 2018.
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
I think people (outside of us nerds) don't really pay attention, so there's no real downside. But I think you're right that most, if not all, wouldn't do it based on appearances. These are older judges, who typically aren't as brazenly political as many of the younger judges imo.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:42 amBut to get back on topic, does anyone think some of these judges will reverse their decision to take senior status if Biden doesn't fill them before the midterms and then McConnell blocks any nominations for the next 2+ years? I feel like most liberal judges wouldn't be so openly political, but I would hope some of them realize that anything is better (from a liberal judge's point of view) than letting their seats get filled by a Fed Soc hack in 2025 or 2029. I doubt most of the Trump nominees (with a few exceptions) would have any reservations about taking back senior status if a Republican president failed to fill the seat in time and then a Democratic president/Senate came along.
Also, if Kanne and King can take back going senior because of some tantrum about not getting to handpick their successors, then I'm wondering if other reasons will become fair game soon too.
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
If tonight is not somehow a discharge-a-thon on all of the stalled nominees in Judiciary, I . . . well, I'll be very puzzled.
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
Not to keep this thread off topic, but 2024 will be a bloodbath for Dems. Joe Manchin (WV), Kyrsten Sinema (AZ), Jon Tester (MT), Sherrod Brown (OH) are very, very likely to lose their seats so you have a baked in -4. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Bob Casey in Pennsylvania are going to hinge on the Presidential election.lavarman84 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:44 amIt's not really relevant to the thread, but that only demonstrated some of the wishful thinking going on at the time. Florida was the only state that the Democrats should have won. And I'm not sure why we would lol at Beto. The past three senate races, not counting his 2.6% loss in 2018, in Texas were Republican wins by 9.6% (2020), 27.7% (2014), and 15.9% (2012). It's unfortunate that the insane people in Texas actually want to elect people like Ted Cruz. /tangentAnonymous User wrote: ↑Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:06 amThis is some major hindsight bias. Everyone knew 2018 was going to be a deeply unfavorable environment for the R's, and though state polls trended their way at the end it was still somewhat of an upset that they held the Senate. Indiana/Missouri/Florida/North Dakota and even Texas (lol, Beto) were all at one point or another looking to be shading blue.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 5:29 pm*was. He was nominating judges at a good pace last year, but things have slowed way down this year. His last lower court nominee was announced on February 2nd, and that was a batch of exactly 1 COA nominee and 0 district court nominees. We can both give Biden credit for moving fast last year and be frustrated that he hasn't been able to keep up the pace.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:13 amPeople in this thread seem to have forgotten that Biden is nominating and confirming judges at a historically unprecedented clip?
In contrast, Trump nominated 2 COA judges while the Kavanaugh nomination was pending: https://twitter.com/prof_jpc/status/150 ... _ZyfApAAAA. I get things slowing down a little bit because of KBJ, but Biden should at least be keeping up with Trump's pace. He really ought to be exceeding Trump's pace, as the Dems are far more likely to lose the Senate this fall than the Republicans were in 2018.
Either way, unless Dems work some magic in 2022, their party is probably not going to be able to nominate anyone to the judiciary until like 2026 at the very earliest, and probably not until 2028 or 2030 more realistically. We could even be looking at a filibuster proof majority for the GOP post 2024 in the worst/best (depending on who you are) case scenario. And that scenario is actually fairly realistic.
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
The Dems are also likely to lose 3-4 Senate seats this fall given that midterm elections pretty much always are swings against the President's party, and Biden's low approval rating has not helped. Kelly (AZ), Warnock (GA), Cortez Masto (NV), and maybe Hassan (NH) are most at risk this year. If all four of them lose, the Republicans will probably have a 60+ seat majority in 2024 if they win the presidency. I don't know how Dems could come back from having <40 Senate seats after 2024 anytime soon, especially given the rural tilt in the Senate. (I know R's went from 41 after 2008 to 54 after 2014, but polarization helped them in a way that's unlikely to help Dems).Anonymous User wrote: ↑Mon Apr 04, 2022 7:43 pmNot to keep this thread off topic, but 2024 will be a bloodbath for Dems. Joe Manchin (WV), Kyrsten Sinema (AZ), Jon Tester (MT), Sherrod Brown (OH) are very, very likely to lose their seats so you have a baked in -4. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Bob Casey in Pennsylvania are going to hinge on the Presidential election.lavarman84 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:44 amIt's not really relevant to the thread, but that only demonstrated some of the wishful thinking going on at the time. Florida was the only state that the Democrats should have won. And I'm not sure why we would lol at Beto. The past three senate races, not counting his 2.6% loss in 2018, in Texas were Republican wins by 9.6% (2020), 27.7% (2014), and 15.9% (2012). It's unfortunate that the insane people in Texas actually want to elect people like Ted Cruz. /tangentAnonymous User wrote: ↑Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:06 amThis is some major hindsight bias. Everyone knew 2018 was going to be a deeply unfavorable environment for the R's, and though state polls trended their way at the end it was still somewhat of an upset that they held the Senate. Indiana/Missouri/Florida/North Dakota and even Texas (lol, Beto) were all at one point or another looking to be shading blue.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 5:29 pm*was. He was nominating judges at a good pace last year, but things have slowed way down this year. His last lower court nominee was announced on February 2nd, and that was a batch of exactly 1 COA nominee and 0 district court nominees. We can both give Biden credit for moving fast last year and be frustrated that he hasn't been able to keep up the pace.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:13 amPeople in this thread seem to have forgotten that Biden is nominating and confirming judges at a historically unprecedented clip?
In contrast, Trump nominated 2 COA judges while the Kavanaugh nomination was pending: https://twitter.com/prof_jpc/status/150 ... _ZyfApAAAA. I get things slowing down a little bit because of KBJ, but Biden should at least be keeping up with Trump's pace. He really ought to be exceeding Trump's pace, as the Dems are far more likely to lose the Senate this fall than the Republicans were in 2018.
Either way, unless Dems work some magic in 2022, their party is probably not going to be able to nominate anyone to the judiciary until like 2026 at the very earliest, and probably not until 2028 or 2030 more realistically. We could even be looking at a filibuster proof majority for the GOP post 2024 in the worst/best (depending on who you are) case scenario. And that scenario is actually fairly realistic.
To bring this back on topic, I don't know why more Dem appointees aren't taking senior status/why Biden isn't moving faster on nominating judges. Do they not know bleak things look (seems unlikely if we on TLS can figure it out), or do they just not care?
Anyone know/have theories as to why the following judges haven't gone senior? Rogers on DC, Greenaway on the 3rd, Stewart on the 5th, Moore & Clay on the 6th, and Gould/Rawlinson/Wardlaw on the 9th. I thought some of them would've already since they're all pretty liberal (except maybe Gould and Rawlinson, who might be more moderate?).
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
Genuine question, not snark - historically, how common has it been for COA judges to go senior based on administration/political trends? Obviously there's a ton of discussion around SCOTUS justices doing this, but I haven't heard as much about this for COA judges. Just curious if this is me being ill-informed (entirely possible) or if this is a newer phenomenon resulting from continuing politicization of the judiciary (especially post-Garland's non-confirmation).
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
Alright, so who slots into KBJ's seat, then?
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
From running the math a while ago, Greenaway isn't eligible yet to go senior. However, he could announce his intention to go senior, which would allow Biden to nominate someone now (much as KBJ was just confirmed without the seat actually being open).
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
This article includes some possible names: https://www.law.com/nationallawjournal/ ... s-certain/
If it were up to me, Andrew Manuel Crespo would be my top choice - former public defender at PDS, former SCOTUS clerk, current criminal law professor at HLS, young (I assume he was born in 1983 based on his CV, which makes him 39), and the first Latino on the DC Circuit since the administration likes historical picks. Also, Biden has only nominated 3 Latinos out of his 20 COA nominees so far (and one of them was Gelpi to the PR seat, which pretty much has to be a Latino) and the article mentions MALDEF & other Latino groups advocating for more Latino nominees.
I could also see Jia Cobb since she filled KBJ's seat on DDC, or current SG Elizabeth Prelogar. They're both young enough to be a SCOTUS contender in 10 years and already got confirmed by this Senate once. Barring a miracle, the Dems probably aren't going to have the presidency and the Senate again for a while, so they should definitely be picking someone that can be a realistic SCOTUS nominee in the 2030s.
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
Yep I was looking at anyone who could go senior before the next Congress. Hamilton on the 7th has already announced that he intends to go senior as soon as he can, and if Greenaway wants to be replaced by this slow-moving administration, he probably should announce ASAP.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:24 pmFrom running the math a while ago, Greenaway isn't eligible yet to go senior. However, he could announce his intention to go senior, which would allow Biden to nominate someone now (much as KBJ was just confirmed without the seat actually being open).
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
Wouldn’t be surprised if Prelogar is given the seat and Millett is nominated to take her place as SG. Gives Biden another seat to fill on the DC Circuit, where he can place a “first-time” Justice-in-waiting for when the next time Dems control the presidency and Senate.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 11:31 pmThis article includes some possible names: https://www.law.com/nationallawjournal/ ... s-certain/
If it were up to me, Andrew Manuel Crespo would be my top choice - former public defender at PDS, former SCOTUS clerk, current criminal law professor at HLS, young (I assume he was born in 1983 based on his CV, which makes him 39), and the first Latino on the DC Circuit since the administration likes historical picks. Also, Biden has only nominated 3 Latinos out of his 20 COA nominees so far (and one of them was Gelpi to the PR seat, which pretty much has to be a Latino) and the article mentions MALDEF & other Latino groups advocating for more Latino nominees.
I could also see Jia Cobb since she filled KBJ's seat on DDC, or current SG Elizabeth Prelogar. They're both young enough to be a SCOTUS contender in 10 years and already got confirmed by this Senate once. Barring a miracle, the Dems probably aren't going to have the presidency and the Senate again for a while, so they should definitely be picking someone that can be a realistic SCOTUS nominee in the 2030s.
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
New Biden nominees just dropped: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo ... -nominees/.
Lee from NDIL to CA7, Salvador Mendoza from EDWA to CA9, and district court noms in NDIL, Iowa, and Delaware. Looks like Biden's going back to more traditional picks. I guess whichever poster above was asking about NDIL judges for elevation to CA7 was on the right track. Lee's pretty old at 54 though, and I would've thought Biden would elevate Chang (who's 51 & a former AUSA).
Good to see McKeown's seat return to Washington, but I wish Biden would've elevated Lauren King instead. He probably felt like she needed more time on the district court bench, but Trump elevated lots of his own district court nominees.
Lee from NDIL to CA7, Salvador Mendoza from EDWA to CA9, and district court noms in NDIL, Iowa, and Delaware. Looks like Biden's going back to more traditional picks. I guess whichever poster above was asking about NDIL judges for elevation to CA7 was on the right track. Lee's pretty old at 54 though, and I would've thought Biden would elevate Chang (who's 51 & a former AUSA).
Good to see McKeown's seat return to Washington, but I wish Biden would've elevated Lauren King instead. He probably felt like she needed more time on the district court bench, but Trump elevated lots of his own district court nominees.
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
Rawlinson on CA9 gave an interview saying that she was considering going senior but wants Biden to choose one of her former clerks, not use a committee
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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions
Gotta respect the courage there lol.Anonymous User wrote: ↑Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:58 amRawlinson on CA9 gave an interview saying that she was considering going senior but wants Biden to choose one of her former clerks, not use a committee
Seriously? What are you waiting for?
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