Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions Forum

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:26 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 5:59 pm
...it seems a lot harder to get the left to unite about something like this than the right
The left is united on the principle that the judiciary should be more representative of America. The correct policies then flow from that representativeness. I think Biden has been very effective at pursuing this goal so far.
I personally don't think these two are really related to one another. and I don't know if the Biden administration does either.

think they believe (a) representativeness is an important in its own right, (b) their judges should do what's just, justice defined as some set of substantive public policy goals

lavarman84

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by lavarman84 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:28 am

It sure looks to me like some people are selling Judge Childs way short simply because she doesn't have the "prestigious" background that they're used to seeing.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:07 am

lavarman84 wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:28 am
It sure looks to me like some people are selling Judge Childs way short simply because she doesn't have the "prestigious" background that they're used to seeing.
I think Judge Childs would've been a great nominee to fill Floyd's South Carolina-based seat on the 4th Circuit. Lindsey Graham is one of the few Republicans (along with Collins and Murkowski) who still votes for some of Biden's appointees, so the administration probably feels the need to give him somewhat of a say. He's also voted some of Biden's nominees out of the judiciary committee when he could have forced a discharge vote that takes up time, so I understand Biden being willing to accommodate Graham. To that end, I think Graham would've had a hard time rejecting Childs for the SC seat on the 4th Circuit because he voted for her before and she hasn't been a controversial judge since then.

But for the DC Circuit? There are a million other candidates with more ties to DC/expertise in Admin Law, so I think that's why her appointment to that specific court feels like patronage and satisfying Clyburn. That can understandably rub people the wrong way, since Judge Childs does not exactly have a proven progressive track record (and unlike South Carolina 4th Circuit seat, Biden could have really picked anyone since there are no home state senators to raise a fuss for DC Cir.).

Lastly, putting her on the DC Circuit is very clearly to put her in a position to be elevated to SCOTUS if Breyer hopefully retires this year. Based on age alone, that's not great. Childs will be 56 this year, which makes her a decade older than Leondra Kruger and half a decade older than Ketanji Brown Jackson. In comparison, Barrett was 48 at the time of confirmation, Kavanaugh was 53, and Gorsuch was 50.

That being said, I'm sure there are people who would be aghast at the idea of a SCOTUS justice who didn't clerk on SCOTUS. However, I think there are other good reasons to be disappointed with her elevation and the missed opportunity to (1) solidify the liberal majority on the 4th Circuit (especially after the fiasco with Robert King) and (2) put a young progressive on the DC Circuit to balance out the likes of Walker and Rao.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:34 am

Does anyone know why Liu and Kruger haven't been tapped for CA9 or D.C. Cir.? I've heard talk that they're serious SCOTUS contenders, but an elevation straight from the CA Supreme Court in the event of an opening seems a bit unlikely, no?

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:14 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ErRN10sk5c&t=35s

What is the appellate standard of review for questions of fact, questions of law, mixed questions of fact and law?

What is Rule 10-b5?

--

Also a lot of fun when he asked Hon. Eunice Lee (2d Cir.) whether litigants could waive subject matter jurisdiction, and she said she would have to get back to him.

They're probably trolling him to spike the football in the endzone; even if they weren't, it's funny.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:14 am

Rumors are that Gregg Costa is resigning in August, opening up a TX 5th seat for Biden and a bunch of questions about what the hell is wrong with the 5th Circuit.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:19 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:14 am
Rumors are that Gregg Costa is resigning in August, opening up a TX 5th seat for Biden and a bunch of questions about what the hell is wrong with the 5th Circuit.
I'm not so sure it's a rumor. It's on the US courts website.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:08 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:19 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:14 am
Rumors are that Gregg Costa is resigning in August, opening up a TX 5th seat for Biden and a bunch of questions about what the hell is wrong with the 5th Circuit.
I'm not so sure it's a rumor. It's on the US courts website.
Anon from above—figured people should be careful after the mixup with Judge Schwartz a few months ago.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:14 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:08 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:19 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:14 am
Rumors are that Gregg Costa is resigning in August, opening up a TX 5th seat for Biden and a bunch of questions about what the hell is wrong with the 5th Circuit.
I'm not so sure it's a rumor. It's on the US courts website.
Anon from above—figured people should be careful after the mixup with Judge Schwartz a few months ago.
Yeah that was weird. But I guess I would characterize that as a mistake not a rumor, as opposed to hearsay and chatter on twitter.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:36 am

Maybe Steve Vladeck?

Too bad, Costa is a Supreme Court-caliber judge

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:45 am

lavarman84 wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:28 am
It sure looks to me like some people are selling Judge Childs way short simply because she doesn't have the "prestigious" background that they're used to seeing.
I don't care that she didn't go to Yale. I do care that there is nothing in her background distinguishing her from dozens of other district court judges or suggesting any particular administrative law expertise

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:16 am

Jessica Clarke had a rough hearing, whiffing on the correct standards of review for issues of law and fact and not being able to describe Rule 10b-5...

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Sat Jan 15, 2022 4:04 am

Also, Blackburn continually embarrasses herself on Judiciary. She asked David Ruiz how being a federal magistrate judge qualifies him to be a federal district judge--just the sort of thing someone who was a lawyer who understood how courts work would never ask.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by lavarman84 » Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:38 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:16 am
Jessica Clarke had a rough hearing, whiffing on the correct standards of review for issues of law and fact and not being able to describe Rule 10b-5...
Not being able to articulate standards of review is problematic. Really don't care if she can accurately describe Rule 10b-5. That's why we have briefing, law clerks, and legal research services.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Skool » Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:44 am

In before, "but it's the southern district bruh, what about all the securities cases."

Also standards of review, who cares. She's going to be a trial court judge, at most she'll have to review ALJ decisions in SSA and special education appeals. She'll figure out the applicable standards in these cases through, as you say, briefing, law clerks, etc. This is not lawyer quiz bowl or jeopardy or whatever. I am not aware of evidence that good judging correlates to whether or not a nominee hit the Cotton/Kennedy/Senate Judiciary Committee daily double. I remember being worried when now Judge Lee didn't remember how you determine corporate citizenship for purposes of diversity. That shit did not break through in the media and she was confirmed. Clarke will be fine.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:20 pm

Long shot, but any idea who will be the SD Iowa nominee? Looking at the finalist list from last time Steve Locher looks likely, as he's added being a federal magistrate to his previous jobs and has a background that should make Grassley happy. Maybe also Brad Hansen-he was too young last time but Grassley has endorsed an FPD before and he's also a Colloton clerk which should help.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by cheaptilts » Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:38 pm

Skool wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:44 am
In before, "but it's the southern district bruh, what about all the securities cases."

Also standards of review, who cares. She's going to be a trial court judge, at most she'll have to review ALJ decisions in SSA and special education appeals. She'll figure out the applicable standards in these cases through, as you say, briefing, law clerks, etc. This is not lawyer quiz bowl or jeopardy or whatever. I am not aware of evidence that good judging correlates to whether or not a nominee hit the Cotton/Kennedy/Senate Judiciary Committee daily double. I remember being worried when now Judge Lee didn't remember how you determine corporate citizenship for purposes of diversity. That shit did not break through in the media and she was confirmed. Clarke will be fine.
This.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by lavarman84 » Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:11 pm

Skool wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:44 am
In before, "but it's the southern district bruh, what about all the securities cases."

Also standards of review, who cares. She's going to be a trial court judge, at most she'll have to review ALJ decisions in SSA and special education appeals. She'll figure out the applicable standards in these cases through, as you say, briefing, law clerks, etc. This is not lawyer quiz bowl or jeopardy or whatever. I am not aware of evidence that good judging correlates to whether or not a nominee hit the Cotton/Kennedy/Senate Judiciary Committee daily double. I remember being worried when now Judge Lee didn't remember how you determine corporate citizenship for purposes of diversity. That shit did not break through in the media and she was confirmed. Clarke will be fine.
By standards of review, I was assuming it was the standards for summary judgments, motions to dismiss, etc. The only reason it seems problematic for me is that you'd think somebody up for a d. ct. judgeship would either know those things by memory or know them through preparation. If it wasn't those things, yeah, IDGAF.

In any case, these hearings are all performative, so you're right, she'll probably make it through. At that point, she can always figure it out.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:48 pm

Jeffrey Toobin reporting that a SCOTUS retirement is coming. Presumably Breyer unless someone has a life-threatening health problem.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:27 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:48 pm
Jeffrey Toobin reporting that a SCOTUS retirement is coming. Presumably Breyer unless someone has a life-threatening health problem.
Interesting if it ended up being Sotomayor. She's telegraphing that she's sort of sick of this shit.

But: consider the source, I guess.

(I'm not even going to entertain the possibility that it's any of the conservative Justices because, hey, the world is shit and will remain shit.)

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Jan 20, 2022 9:06 am

Oh god. We have reached the "people who overlapped with me at law school" part of the I-feel-great-for-them-through-gritted-teeth-march-of-what-have-I-done-with-my-career-despair.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:14 pm

Rearden nomination for SDNY is getting a lot of flak from the left-wing Dem party activists....

Doesn't jive with Biden's other nominees so this may just be a sop to Schumer/Gillibrand. Guessing Rearden probably has some good connections there.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:48 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jan 21, 2022 4:14 pm
Rearden nomination for SDNY is getting a lot of flak from the left-wing Dem party activists....

Doesn't jive with Biden's other nominees so this may just be a sop to Schumer/Gillibrand. Guessing Rearden probably has some good connections there.
100% a Gillibrand pick. Our good friend Donzinger is going nuts on twitter about it, so she's presumably a good pick too.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Sun Jan 30, 2022 3:22 pm

Is it possible to infer a judge's retirement from silence on OSCAR? For example, if a judge is eligible for senior status, typically has posted on OSCAR by this time in the year for a future term, and hasn't, would that be a good indicator of pending retirement?

Anon because I am curious about clerking in a specific geographic location with a potentially retiring judge, but I think that court watchers might be curious about this too.

Seriously? What are you waiting for?

Now there's a charge.
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