Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions Forum

[Anonymous User]

Is it possible to infer a judge's retirement from silence on OSCAR? For example, if a judge is eligible for senior status, typically has posted on OSCAR by this time in the year for a future term, and hasn't, would that be a good indicator of pending retirement?

Anon because I am curious about clerking in a specific geographic location with a potentially retiring judge, but I think that court watchers might be curious about this too.

You never know for sure but it's certainly one indication - I remember thinking it weird last summer that Costa on the 5th hadn't posted for '22, and I guess we all found out why a few weeks ago. I'd still check with your school's career services/network in general though.

[Anonymous User]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/0 ... s-00005914

[Anonymous User]

Does anyone think that anyone out of this new batch will be feeder-level? Maybe Allie Nathan; Childs; Toby Heytens?

[Anonymous User]

Nathan, Heytens, Jackson (obviously assuming she doesn’t just get SCOTUS) will probably feed some. If I had to guess another, maybe Perez, but there’s very limited room for liberal feeders atm. For district judges I’d guess Ho and maybe Pan or Corley.

[Anonymous User]

Grassley and Ernst recommended Steve Locher for SD Iowa, and he will presumably be nominated.

[Anonymous User]

Blackburn’s conduct in hearings continues to be disgraceful. In today’s conference, she referred to Mathis’s discussions with the White House as “street talk in Memphis,” with obvious racial overtones (on top of the much-derided “rap sheet” of speeding tickets). She also claimed he was just local counsel in his appeals, which seems clearly false—he did the oral argument in most of them—and continued to criticize his ECF filing, apparently not understanding that paralegals usually handle that.

https://amp.commercialappeal.com/amp/6743280001

[Anonymous User]

Blackburn’s conduct in hearings continues to be disgraceful. In today’s conference, she referred to Mathis’s discussions with the White House as “street talk in Memphis,” with obvious racial overtones (on top of the much-derided “rap sheet” of speeding tickets). She also claimed he was just local counsel in his appeals, which seems clearly false—he did the oral argument in most of them—and continued to criticize his ECF filing, apparently not understanding that paralegals usually handle that.

https://amp.commercialappeal.com/amp/6743280001

Oh yeah Blackburn is horrible (no surprise given her record), but I was pleasantly surprised to see that John Kennedy voted for Mathis to be favorably reported from the SJC. Mathis doesn't even have a controversial background since he's been in private practice his whole career - it's not like he was working at the ACLU or anywhere Republicans particularly dislike these days.

I was surprised that Biden didn't go with Judge Camille McMullen, the candidate Blackburn and Hagerty actually did sign off on (or at least claim they did - I don't trust anything those two say without independent verification). I thought Biden would fill Judge Donald's seat with a Black woman, and Judge McMullen was appointed by a Dem governor and didn't seem like she was conservative or a bad fit.

Either way I'm sure Mathis will be confirmed now, no matter how many more racist things Blackburn says. Just hoping the Dems do it quickly because he seems he'd be great to clerk for.

[Anonymous User]

Blackburn’s conduct in hearings continues to be disgraceful. In today’s conference, she referred to Mathis’s discussions with the White House as “street talk in Memphis,” with obvious racial overtones (on top of the much-derided “rap sheet” of speeding tickets). She also claimed he was just local counsel in his appeals, which seems clearly false—he did the oral argument in most of them—and continued to criticize his ECF filing, apparently not understanding that paralegals usually handle that.

https://amp.commercialappeal.com/amp/6743280001

Oh yeah Blackburn is horrible (no surprise given her record), but I was pleasantly surprised to see that John Kennedy voted for Mathis to be favorably reported from the SJC. Mathis doesn't even have a controversial background since he's been in private practice his whole career - it's not like he was working at the ACLU or anywhere Republicans particularly dislike these days.

I was surprised that Biden didn't go with Judge Camille McMullen, the candidate Blackburn and Hagerty actually did sign off on (or at least claim they did - I don't trust anything those two say without independent verification). I thought Biden would fill Judge Donald's seat with a Black woman, and Judge McMullen was appointed by a Dem governor and didn't seem like she was conservative or a bad fit.

Either way I'm sure Mathis will be confirmed now, no matter how many more racist things Blackburn says. Just hoping the Dems do it quickly because he seems he'd be great to clerk for.

I assume Mathis would have gotten at least Graham as well if not for the blue-slip controversy--he's this admin's equivalent of Eric Miller, who had a somewhat bizarrely contentious confirmation because he was the first Trump nominee with no blue slip. Kennedy at least understands law, and seems to genuinely care about the competence of nominees, which makes him better than the senators who have no idea what they're talking about and/or are so ideological that they vote no on everyone, like Cruz and Lee

[Anonymous User]

Underrated in the KBJ discourse has been how she brings diversity to an exclusively Catholic and Jewish court. I think she may be not just Protestant, but Evangelical, which would be extra diverse.

[Anonymous User]

Underrated in the KBJ discourse has been how she brings diversity to an exclusively Catholic and Jewish court. I think she may be not just Protestant, but Evangelical, which would be extra diverse.

Gorsuch is likely a Protestant

[Anonymous User]

Underrated in the KBJ discourse has been how she brings diversity to an exclusively Catholic and Jewish court. I think she may be not just Protestant, but Evangelical, which would be extra diverse.

Gorsuch is likely a Protestant

I'm still waiting for a justice that isn't religious. I'm so tired of a religious affiliation being a required checkbox for any position in our government, executive, legislative, and judicial alike.

[Anonymous User]

Underrated in the KBJ discourse has been how she brings diversity to an exclusively Catholic and Jewish court. I think she may be not just Protestant, but Evangelical, which would be extra diverse.

Gorsuch is likely a Protestant

I'm still waiting for a justice that isn't religious. I'm so tired of a religious affiliation being a required checkbox for any position in our government, executive, legislative, and judicial alike.

Breyer is not religious, and the non-religious are almost certainly overrepresented in the judiciary given the demographics of legal elites. Anglicans/Episcopalians, Catholics, and Unitarians are also probably overrepresented, with Evangelicals heavily underrepresented.

[LBJ's Hair]

Underrated in the KBJ discourse has been how she brings diversity to an exclusively Catholic and Jewish court. I think she may be not just Protestant, but Evangelical, which would be extra diverse.

Gorsuch is likely a Protestant

I'm still waiting for a justice that isn't religious. I'm so tired of a religious affiliation being a required checkbox for any position in our government, executive, legislative, and judicial alike.

is it? I've heard nothing about the religious affiliation of the vast majority of Biden's nominees

[Anonymous User]

From the hearings, it seems that KBJ is indeed an evangelical (she’s a member of a nondenominational Protestant church)

[Quichelorraine]

This long without another set of noms is really bizarre. Some of these vacancies, especially the Circuit vacancies, have been sitting open forever. Just pick someone!

[Anonymous User]

This long without another set of noms is really bizarre. Some of these vacancies, especially the Circuit vacancies, have been sitting open forever. Just pick someone!

This x10000. The Biden Administration's incompetence is clear from a lot of its failings in the last year (and this is coming from someone who is a Democrat through and through), but judicial nominations was one of the only bright spots. Now they're screwing that up too - they took weeks to nominate KBJ, who was the most obvious candidate. Now they can't seem to even walk and chew gum at the same time.

I hope they're just waiting for KBJ's hearings to be over (so as to not take attention away from her) and will announce on Friday or early next week. At this point, I doubt they'll even fill all the current COA vacancies before the Dems lose their Senate majority in the midterms. I had the lowest of expectations for Biden and the Dems given Manchin & Sinema, but it seems like his incompetence knows no bounds.

[Anonymous User]

Failing to get all their eligible seniors off the bench is also a huge unforced error. Thinking especially of Judge Rogers on CADC. She's in her 80s and if I'm reading the political winds right, this might be the last chance to replace her with a Democrat until ... quite possibly 2029.

[Quichelorraine]

You would think that SCOTUS nomination hearings would be the perfect time to drop more judges. Nobody's paying attention!

We're not in total danger territory yet (and the Judiciary Committee still has a backlog it could be getting through), but those Circuit positions need nominees, and stat.

[Anonymous User]

Gossip around CA1 is that district judge Denise Casper is the frontrunner for Sandra Lynch's seat on the circuit. That would create a 4th vacancy on D. Mass., and a 3rd in Boston.

[Anonymous User]

Gossip around CA1 is that district judge Denise Casper is the frontrunner for Sandra Lynch's seat on the circuit. That would create a 4th vacancy on D. Mass., and a 3rd in Boston.

She has a pretty traditional background, having been an AUSA and worked in big law - personally I'd prefer someone with more clearly progressive credentials, but I guess a current district court judge is probably faster/easier to confirm (which is starting to matter because Biden is so damn slow at nominations this year). Four vacancies is a lot for one district court though, so hopefully Warren and Markey have recommended names already.

[Anonymous User]

Does anyone know what will happen with McKeown's seat on the 9th? She was nominated to fill a Washington seat since she was living in Seattle at the time, but later she moved to San Diego. If Biden (hopefully) gets around to nominating her replacement, will it be from Washington or California?

I hope the seat returns to Washington - partly for selfish reasons because I have ties there (and probably have a better - though still remote - chance with a 9th Circuit clerkship in Washington), but also because it really was originally a Washington seat. Right now, Washington only has 2 seats while Arizona (which has a smaller population) has 3.

[Anonymous User]

Does anyone know what will happen with McKeown's seat on the 9th? She was nominated to fill a Washington seat since she was living in Seattle at the time, but later she moved to San Diego. If Biden (hopefully) gets around to nominating her replacement, will it be from Washington or California?

I hope the seat returns to Washington - partly for selfish reasons because I have ties there (and probably have a better - though still remote - chance with a 9th Circuit clerkship in Washington), but also because it really was originally a Washington seat. Right now, Washington only has 2 seats while Arizona (which has a smaller population) has 3.

It'll be Washington. This was fought over when Steve Trott (California judge who moved to Idaho while on active status) went senior, and California ended up keeping the seat. So precedent means Washington keeps McKeown's seat.

[Anonymous User]

Does anyone know what will happen with McKeown's seat on the 9th? She was nominated to fill a Washington seat since she was living in Seattle at the time, but later she moved to San Diego. If Biden (hopefully) gets around to nominating her replacement, will it be from Washington or California?

I hope the seat returns to Washington - partly for selfish reasons because I have ties there (and probably have a better - though still remote - chance with a 9th Circuit clerkship in Washington), but also because it really was originally a Washington seat. Right now, Washington only has 2 seats while Arizona (which has a smaller population) has 3.

It'll be Washington. This was fought over when Steve Trott (California judge who moved to Idaho while on active status) went senior, and California ended up keeping the seat. So precedent means Washington keeps McKeown's seat.

Great to hear - now Biden just has to actually nominate someone to this seat (if he ever gets around to doing his job and actually nominating some people again...). Any ideas who the leading contenders are?

My two thoughts: this could be a good seat for the first Native American court of appeals judge, and either Raquel Montoya-Lewis on the Washington Supreme Court or Lauren King on W.D. Wash. would be good candidates. The only issue is that Montoya-Lewis might be a little on the older side at 53ish, while Lauren King might be too new since she was only appointed to the federal bench at the end of last year.

[Anonymous User]

Anyone know who's up for Hurwitz's seat, now that he's gone senior?

[Anonymous User]

Anyone know who's up for Hurwitz's seat, now that he's gone senior?

My bet is Rosemary Marquez on DAZ - she checks several of this administration's boxes: she's a former federal public defender, Latina, and confirmed with bipartisan support in 2014. Also, a district court judge can be vetted faster/have her hearing earlier, and the only COA nomination recently was Davis (a current district court judge on EDMI).