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beepboopbeep

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by beepboopbeep » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:33 am

Hey let's start a trend of posting the list of new noms when talking about them so everyone else curious doesn't have to Google for it. Here's today's: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo ... -nominees/

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:01 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:19 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 9:37 am
Today's slate of nominees finally includes Dale Ho, which I guess makes sense given all the horse-trading going on in Washington this week. It will be interesting to see how straightforward or challenging his confirmation will be.
I bet Ho will catch some flack for some of his election lawsuits (specifically the "poll tax" on in the 11th), but in the end, I think he will get a couple of Republican votes if he doesn't botch the hearing.
He'll probably get Graham, who doesn't seem inclined to vote against anyone, but that "poll tax" lawsuit was laughably bad.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by lavarman84 » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:52 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:01 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:19 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 9:37 am
Today's slate of nominees finally includes Dale Ho, which I guess makes sense given all the horse-trading going on in Washington this week. It will be interesting to see how straightforward or challenging his confirmation will be.
I bet Ho will catch some flack for some of his election lawsuits (specifically the "poll tax" on in the 11th), but in the end, I think he will get a couple of Republican votes if he doesn't botch the hearing.
He'll probably get Graham, who doesn't seem inclined to vote against anyone, but that "poll tax" lawsuit was laughably bad.
It was a headscratcher to bring that in the 11th. The majority of that circuit is hostile to voting rights. Not sure what the thinking was on that.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Oct 01, 2021 2:14 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:01 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:19 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 9:37 am
Today's slate of nominees finally includes Dale Ho, which I guess makes sense given all the horse-trading going on in Washington this week. It will be interesting to see how straightforward or challenging his confirmation will be.
I bet Ho will catch some flack for some of his election lawsuits (specifically the "poll tax" on in the 11th), but in the end, I think he will get a couple of Republican votes if he doesn't botch the hearing.
He'll probably get Graham, who doesn't seem inclined to vote against anyone, but that "poll tax" lawsuit was laughably bad.
I think y'all are underestimating how disliked the ACLU is on the right these days now that they pretty uniformly line up behind democrats' causes. It's probably Biden's most partisan nomination yet, given most of the rest have been run-of-the-mill state judges, labor lawyers, and public defenders. I would be surprised if Graham or any Republican voted for him.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Oct 01, 2021 9:28 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Oct 01, 2021 2:14 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:01 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:19 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 9:37 am
Today's slate of nominees finally includes Dale Ho, which I guess makes sense given all the horse-trading going on in Washington this week. It will be interesting to see how straightforward or challenging his confirmation will be.
I bet Ho will catch some flack for some of his election lawsuits (specifically the "poll tax" on in the 11th), but in the end, I think he will get a couple of Republican votes if he doesn't botch the hearing.
He'll probably get Graham, who doesn't seem inclined to vote against anyone, but that "poll tax" lawsuit was laughably bad.
I think y'all are underestimating how disliked the ACLU is on the right these days now that they pretty uniformly line up behind democrats' causes. It's probably Biden's most partisan nomination yet, given most of the rest have been run-of-the-mill state judges, labor lawyers, and public defenders. I would be surprised if Graham or any Republican voted for him.
.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Oct 01, 2021 10:43 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Oct 01, 2021 9:28 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Oct 01, 2021 2:14 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:01 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:19 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 9:37 am
Today's slate of nominees finally includes Dale Ho, which I guess makes sense given all the horse-trading going on in Washington this week. It will be interesting to see how straightforward or challenging his confirmation will be.
I bet Ho will catch some flack for some of his election lawsuits (specifically the "poll tax" on in the 11th), but in the end, I think he will get a couple of Republican votes if he doesn't botch the hearing.
He'll probably get Graham, who doesn't seem inclined to vote against anyone, but that "poll tax" lawsuit was laughably bad.
I think y'all are underestimating how disliked the ACLU is on the right these days now that they pretty uniformly line up behind democrats' causes. It's probably Biden's most partisan nomination yet, given most of the rest have been run-of-the-mill state judges, labor lawyers, and public defenders. I would be surprised if Graham or any Republican voted for him.
.
Eh. I am pretty tuned in with the conservative legal movement, and I agree the ACLU is not currently in favor. However, the ACLU still enjoys general public support and republican senators know that. Maybe he would get nixed for a 2nd Circuit seat, but I can't see Graham burning a "no" vote on a district court judge.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by lavarman84 » Fri Oct 01, 2021 10:48 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Oct 01, 2021 2:14 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:01 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:19 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 9:37 am
Today's slate of nominees finally includes Dale Ho, which I guess makes sense given all the horse-trading going on in Washington this week. It will be interesting to see how straightforward or challenging his confirmation will be.
I bet Ho will catch some flack for some of his election lawsuits (specifically the "poll tax" on in the 11th), but in the end, I think he will get a couple of Republican votes if he doesn't botch the hearing.
He'll probably get Graham, who doesn't seem inclined to vote against anyone, but that "poll tax" lawsuit was laughably bad.
I think y'all are underestimating how disliked the ACLU is on the right these days now that they pretty uniformly line up behind democrats' causes. It's probably Biden's most partisan nomination yet, given most of the rest have been run-of-the-mill state judges, labor lawyers, and public defenders. I would be surprised if Graham or any Republican voted for him.
I don't doubt that "the right" hates the ACLU for reasons I won't get into here. But off the top of my head, the ACLU filed an amicus brief supporting Americans for Prosperity this past term in the California donor disclosure case.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Oct 01, 2021 10:52 am

Yeah I don't expect Ho to get a single GOP vote. He's been anti-Trump in the ways that GOP Senators will bristle (i.e., voting rights).

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Oct 01, 2021 3:44 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Oct 01, 2021 10:43 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Oct 01, 2021 9:28 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Oct 01, 2021 2:14 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 12:01 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:19 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Thu Sep 30, 2021 9:37 am
Today's slate of nominees finally includes Dale Ho, which I guess makes sense given all the horse-trading going on in Washington this week. It will be interesting to see how straightforward or challenging his confirmation will be.
I bet Ho will catch some flack for some of his election lawsuits (specifically the "poll tax" on in the 11th), but in the end, I think he will get a couple of Republican votes if he doesn't botch the hearing.
He'll probably get Graham, who doesn't seem inclined to vote against anyone, but that "poll tax" lawsuit was laughably bad.
I think y'all are underestimating how disliked the ACLU is on the right these days now that they pretty uniformly line up behind democrats' causes. It's probably Biden's most partisan nomination yet, given most of the rest have been run-of-the-mill state judges, labor lawyers, and public defenders. I would be surprised if Graham or any Republican voted for him.
.
Eh. I am pretty tuned in with the conservative legal movement, and I agree the ACLU is not currently in favor. However, the ACLU still enjoys general public support and republican senators know that. Maybe he would get nixed for a 2nd Circuit seat, but I can't see Graham burning a "no" vote on a district court judge.
Graham already voted yes on Myrna Perez for the 2nd Circuit, who is just as, if not more, radical than Dale Ho. Can’t see him voting no on Ho.

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LBJ's Hair

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by LBJ's Hair » Fri Oct 01, 2021 6:57 pm

lavarman84 wrote:
Fri Oct 01, 2021 10:48 am

I don't doubt that "the right" hates the ACLU for reasons I won't get into here. But off the top of my head, the ACLU filed an amicus brief supporting Americans for Prosperity this past term in the California donor disclosure case.
eh, I think it's fair to say that the ACLU is not the same organization it was 25 years ago, and both progressives and conservatives have noticed

good discussion here. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/a ... peech.html

(my gripes with the new-ACLU aside, Dale Ho is obviously more-than-qualified for SDNY, CA2, w/e)

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by lavarman84 » Fri Oct 01, 2021 7:58 pm

LBJ's Hair wrote:
Fri Oct 01, 2021 6:57 pm
lavarman84 wrote:
Fri Oct 01, 2021 10:48 am

I don't doubt that "the right" hates the ACLU for reasons I won't get into here. But off the top of my head, the ACLU filed an amicus brief supporting Americans for Prosperity this past term in the California donor disclosure case.
eh, I think it's fair to say that the ACLU is not the same organization it was 25 years ago, and both progressives and conservatives have noticed

good discussion here. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/a ... peech.html

(my gripes with the new-ACLU aside, Dale Ho is obviously more-than-qualified for SDNY, CA2, w/e)
I read it back when it was published. It talks of an internal debate, not a change in policy (and this isn't the first time that sort of grievance has been aired). The ACLU still is willing to advocate for conservatives (and worse) when they're fighting for expanding civil liberties/rights. Here's another recent example:
https://reason.com/2021/07/27/town-drop ... den-signs/

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Robot » Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:48 pm

David Lat reports that Cabranes and Pooler will go senior, opening up two Second Circuit seats, at least one of which is an NY seat. Also apparently the holdup was that neither would go senior unless the other did because they dislike each other. Lol.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:49 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Oct 01, 2021 3:44 pm
Graham already voted yes on Myrna Perez for the 2nd Circuit, who is just as, if not more, radical than Dale Ho. Can’t see him voting no on Ho.
Makes me wonder why there seems to be a hold-up on Perez's confirmation. Assumed it was because Feinstein wasn't voting at the moment, but if Graham supports her...?

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by breathedah » Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:19 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:49 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Oct 01, 2021 3:44 pm
Graham already voted yes on Myrna Perez for the 2nd Circuit, who is just as, if not more, radical than Dale Ho. Can’t see him voting no on Ho.
Makes me wonder why there seems to be a hold-up on Perez's confirmation. Assumed it was because Feinstein wasn't voting at the moment, but if Graham supports her...?
I'm pretty sure the hold-up is "abuse of the filibuster in the United States Senate." Perez is not even the circuit court nominee who has been pending the longest since being voted out of committee (Gelpí).

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Oct 08, 2021 4:00 pm

I know someone who's currently nominated to be a judge on the 2d/9th Circuit (don't want to specify which circuit since this information already narrows it down to like six people). This person got me my first job out of law school and we generally had a cordial relationship when I was in law school. I think I may have a decent shot at clerking for them since I know them personally, but I'm not sure whether I should reach out to them directly and let them know my interest, or if I should just wait and apply like any other applicant once they're (hopefully) confirmed. My grades are pretty good and I attended a top school, but I'm still not traditionally competitive for a 2d/9th/DC Circuit clerkship (I'm only around Top 30%), so this may be my only potential "in" for such a prestigious clerkship. Of course, I recognize that there will be plenty of better applicants to clerk for this person and I certainly don't feel entitled to the clerkship; hope I don't come across that way.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Oct 08, 2021 4:09 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 4:00 pm
I know someone who's currently nominated to be a judge on the 2d/9th Circuit (don't want to specify which circuit since this information already narrows it down to like six people). This person got me my first job out of law school and we generally had a cordial relationship when I was in law school. I think I may have a decent shot at clerking for them since I know them personally, but I'm not sure whether I should reach out to them directly and let them know my interest, or if I should just wait and apply like any other applicant once they're (hopefully) confirmed. My grades are pretty good and I attended a top school, but I'm still not traditionally competitive for a 2d/9th/DC Circuit clerkship (I'm only around Top 30%), so this may be my only potential "in" for such a prestigious clerkship. Of course, I recognize that there will be plenty of better applicants to clerk for this person and I certainly don't feel entitled to the clerkship; hope I don't come across that way.
Personally, I'd reach out. A lot of folks try off the beaten path approaches- worst case scenario they'll tell you to apply normally.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:01 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 4:00 pm
I know someone who's currently nominated to be a judge on the 2d/9th Circuit (don't want to specify which circuit since this information already narrows it down to like six people). This person got me my first job out of law school and we generally had a cordial relationship when I was in law school. I think I may have a decent shot at clerking for them since I know them personally, but I'm not sure whether I should reach out to them directly and let them know my interest, or if I should just wait and apply like any other applicant once they're (hopefully) confirmed. My grades are pretty good and I attended a top school, but I'm still not traditionally competitive for a 2d/9th/DC Circuit clerkship (I'm only around Top 30%), so this may be my only potential "in" for such a prestigious clerkship. Of course, I recognize that there will be plenty of better applicants to clerk for this person and I certainly don't feel entitled to the clerkship; hope I don't come across that way.
It’s not unusual for people with not-tippy-top stats to land clerkships with new judges through connections, go for it

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:04 pm

I’ve heard speculation around the CA2/SDNY world that Cabranes might have retired on the condition that Furman gets his seat, Furman clerked for Cabranes and they are close. Time will tell.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by LBJ's Hair » Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:28 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 4:00 pm
I know someone who's currently nominated to be a judge on the 2d/9th Circuit (don't want to specify which circuit since this information already narrows it down to like six people). This person got me my first job out of law school and we generally had a cordial relationship when I was in law school. I think I may have a decent shot at clerking for them since I know them personally, but I'm not sure whether I should reach out to them directly and let them know my interest, or if I should just wait and apply like any other applicant once they're (hopefully) confirmed. My grades are pretty good and I attended a top school, but I'm still not traditionally competitive for a 2d/9th/DC Circuit clerkship (I'm only around Top 30%), so this may be my only potential "in" for such a prestigious clerkship. Of course, I recognize that there will be plenty of better applicants to clerk for this person and I certainly don't feel entitled to the clerkship; hope I don't come across that way.
You should definitely reach out.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by lavarman84 » Sat Oct 09, 2021 1:04 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 4:00 pm
I know someone who's currently nominated to be a judge on the 2d/9th Circuit (don't want to specify which circuit since this information already narrows it down to like six people). This person got me my first job out of law school and we generally had a cordial relationship when I was in law school. I think I may have a decent shot at clerking for them since I know them personally, but I'm not sure whether I should reach out to them directly and let them know my interest, or if I should just wait and apply like any other applicant once they're (hopefully) confirmed. My grades are pretty good and I attended a top school, but I'm still not traditionally competitive for a 2d/9th/DC Circuit clerkship (I'm only around Top 30%), so this may be my only potential "in" for such a prestigious clerkship. Of course, I recognize that there will be plenty of better applicants to clerk for this person and I certainly don't feel entitled to the clerkship; hope I don't come across that way.
Go for it. Don't wait. Shoot your shot.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Nov 12, 2021 10:01 am

Gotta say, I am surprised/disappointed by the now-complete slate for District of New Jersey. Booker and Menendez blockaded the Trump administration for *this*? I'm sure they're all lovely and competent people, but . . .

Basically, these picks are a throwback: politically connected lawyers of a certain age. Obama's were the same. By and large, that's fine. But while they found room for an employment-side labor lawyer, they did not pick a single left-of-the-dial attorney. Nor anybody particularly young (was Guillermo Artiles not in the running?).

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by GFox345 » Fri Nov 12, 2021 5:13 pm

lavarman84 wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 1:04 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 4:00 pm
I know someone who's currently nominated to be a judge on the 2d/9th Circuit (don't want to specify which circuit since this information already narrows it down to like six people). This person got me my first job out of law school and we generally had a cordial relationship when I was in law school. I think I may have a decent shot at clerking for them since I know them personally, but I'm not sure whether I should reach out to them directly and let them know my interest, or if I should just wait and apply like any other applicant once they're (hopefully) confirmed. My grades are pretty good and I attended a top school, but I'm still not traditionally competitive for a 2d/9th/DC Circuit clerkship (I'm only around Top 30%), so this may be my only potential "in" for such a prestigious clerkship. Of course, I recognize that there will be plenty of better applicants to clerk for this person and I certainly don't feel entitled to the clerkship; hope I don't come across that way.
Go for it. Don't wait. Shoot your shot.
Agreed. A few years ago, I ended up getting a job with a new Trump COA appointee by reaching out like this before they were confirmed. I've seen connected people with FAR worse credentials than yours get the job. Definitely reach out. Can't hurt to ask.

But drop the 2/9/DC distinction. With the exception of maybe the D.C. Circuit, no one cares which Circuit you clerked on, unless it's the circuit you're working in and knowledge of some unique aspect of that Circuit's case law is relevant to your job or the judge you clerked for is well known in the Circuit.

I'd guess that the latter phenomenon is why many people think the 2nd Circuit is especially prestigious. It covers NYC, and tons of big law is in NYC. The same goes for the 9th Circuit and LA/SF firms, etc. Failing that, I have never seen anyone seriously give more weight to CA9 or CA2 over CA8 or CA4, etc. The individual judge's reputation matters orders of magnitude more than the Circuit number.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Sat Nov 13, 2021 12:55 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Nov 12, 2021 10:01 am
Gotta say, I am surprised/disappointed by the now-complete slate for District of New Jersey. Booker and Menendez blockaded the Trump administration for *this*? I'm sure they're all lovely and competent people, but . . .

Basically, these picks are a throwback: politically connected lawyers of a certain age. Obama's were the same. By and large, that's fine. But while they found room for an employment-side labor lawyer, they did not pick a single left-of-the-dial attorney. Nor anybody particularly young (was Guillermo Artiles not in the running?).
Yeah the D NJ nominations have been really weird. They're almost all pretty unremarkable midlaw partners, with a couple of exceptions, who are not who the Biden admin has been nominating elsewhere.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Sat Nov 13, 2021 2:16 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Sat Nov 13, 2021 12:55 am

Yeah the D NJ nominations have been really weird. They're almost all pretty unremarkable midlaw partners, with a couple of exceptions, who are not who the Biden admin has been nominating elsewhere.
DNJ has a long and storied track record of this sort of nominee, and most end up being perfectly fine judges content to have a low profile while jockeying for neither Circuit appointments nor Tharpar-esque feeder status. I've appeared before most of the District; they're good people. It's a good way to have a well-functioning court, and it's nice also to not have to appear before the Name Judge in SDNY with A Reputation.

But: many of these appointees, or like appointees, could have been tenable under Trump, too. I thought they would pull out at least two public defenders or civil-rights lawyers or at least idiosyncratic young people (Artilles! Young partners at Gibbons or like firms) for the Newark slots. But they . . . didn't. That's just odd.

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Re: Biden Judicial Nominees Predictions

Post by Anonymous User » Tue Nov 16, 2021 8:31 pm

Reports out that Schumer has recommended Alison Nathan for CA2 and Anne Nardacci, a partner at Boies Schiller’s Albany office, for NDNY

Seriously? What are you waiting for?

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