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Tfer at PVDB--top 10% after first semester on E-board of major journal (non-law review journal though) at V25 firm and solid recs? I'm assuming prob. good enough for D.Ct. but probably not good enough for Court of Appeals without work experience or flagship law review. Does that sound about right?

I'd apply broadly and see what happens. People with worse credentials have gotten COA clerkships, but you're right that they're more competitive and that your numbers do not make you close to a lock.