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I am considering applying for clerkship, but, before I go through the effort to do so, I want to understand if my chances are laughably low.

I want to clerk because I genuinely love legal research and writing (have some evidence to support that) and it is just a really neat unique experience that I would like to have. To the extent one can predict, I also believe I would be good at it based on speaking with my friends who clerked, my temperament and my performance in my current job. I'm employed in big law now (junior associate) and am planning next steps so I think it is now or never.

Here is some information about me:

-recent graduate at V10 in transactional work - I am good at my job, and I like the content of the work (but not the hours and the craziness), but I don't see myself grinding it out until I'm 35 for a tiny shot at partnership
-CLS ~25%; Kent scholar (3L); Stone scholar (2L); median pwned 1L; never took fed courts
-secondary journal ed board; note published; wrote another 100-page article while in law school but never got around to submitting it for publication - if it would help, I could submit it for publication now but would have to update it
-HYPS undergrad phi beta kappa/summa cum laude
-can get one recommendation from very highly regarded/well known CLS professor

I'm not including all the other activities I did in college and law school since I assume they're not pertinent. I wonder if my chances are nil due to 1L grades, failure to take fed courts and status as a transactional, not lit, lawyer. I would prefer to stay in NYC but would be open to going anywhere.

I also worry about next steps post-clerkship if I did get one - I am guessing it would be hard to clerk and then, say, jump in house. I highly doubt I'm qualified for academia with my grades. I am fairly sure my firm would take me back after I clerked but likely wouldn't give me the clerkship bonus and might drop me a class in seniority. I am aware that the clerkship may be a step sideways from the path of V10 transactional-->cushy in house job, but I'm considering this because as I noted I think I would genuinely highly enjoy it and it is a special type of experience I'd like to have even if it sets my career trajectory back a little. Financially I can afford to take some risk. I would be very interested in hearing from anyone who went transactional big law to clerkship (who actually applied post-graduation.) TYIA!

Your chances aren't laughably low. Different judges prefer different things; for the judges who require tip-top grades, you may be out of luck, but there will be other (probably district court but perhaps appellate, especially if your recommenders know them personally) judges who will appreciate your work experience, and your top-25% grades from CLS will be good enough.

Tough to say which judges might fall into which camp. It's a black box, largely, from the outside, but you can increase your chances if you're geographically flexible and apply broadly.

I got a COA 3-5 years out with median grades from H. You're def not dead in the water.

No one cares about fed courts.

Median 1L takes you out of the running for very competitive circuits but far from everything. Esp since you evidently declined to 3LOL

Explaining the transactional work will require a careful touch but it can be done.

Unless you're feeder or bust, you're not insane

I'm clerking for a DJ (albeit in a not-so-desirable location) and my stats were wayyyyyyy worse than yours. But I had lots of relevant experience (100% litigation, court internships), very strong recommendations, same UG and law school as judge, and judge does not really care about grades as long as they are not terrible.

Apply far and wide and don't waste your time with Kozinski, Tatel, etc.

Yea. Its such a black box. For the most part, the clerks I know are top 10% people from local law schools. I got a dj at top 15%ish from UT, albeit in a flyover district. This is all to say that your grades don't really disqualify you from a federal, probably district, clerkship. You will need to highlight your writing ability and apply broadly. Like, spam every court you can. If you wan to clerk, and don't care about living somewhere random for a year or two, its definitely possible.

Edit: just saw you were a transactional associate. Shouldn't pigeonhole you, but you will need to find a creative way to make that an asset; or, at the least, not a hindrance. Some judges will care; many won't.

OP here - thanks everyone! I will round up my recommenders and maybe dust off that article from a few years ago and try to publish it and throw some apps in (avoiding the super grade conscious judges) and see what sticks.

Also in terms of recs I can get a very good one from an eniment professor I had in a 1L doctrinal class but, for the other, what is better between a great rec from a non-doctrinal 3L class or a good but likely nothing special rec from a 1L doctrinal class?

Great rec trumps who it's written by or what course it was.

If you "genuinely love legal research and writing," why did you go into transactional law?