Do law school grades predict bar performance? Forum

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Allegro3935

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Do law school grades predict bar performance?

Post by Allegro3935 » Sun Feb 19, 2023 3:08 pm

My law school performance has been mediocre (mostly Bs) and I struggle to write finals. Am I doomed for the bar exam, which is a year from now?

I still find it difficult to "issue-spot." Whenever I read a hypothetical, it overwhelms me: there are so many facts that may or may not play a role in the right answer. I'm never sure which issue and rule to discuss despite knowing all the rules. One of my professors showed me a book award-winning exam that identified and discussed at length 7 or 8 different issues for litigation. I correctly identified just 3 of those, hence my B grade. Is it like that on the bar too? If yes, how could I improve?

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Prudent_Jurist

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Re: Do law school grades predict bar performance?

Post by Prudent_Jurist » Sun Feb 19, 2023 4:44 pm

Look at your performance in context. What’s your school’s overall pass rate? What’s your rank? I think you’ll be just fine!

nixy

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Re: Do law school grades predict bar performance?

Post by nixy » Sun Feb 19, 2023 8:44 pm

Depending on what bar you're taking, you can pass while doing fairly badly on the essays if you ace the multiple choice questions. So when you get to the point of studying, you might want to think about how to strategize.

jamestaylorrecordsas

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Re: Do law school grades predict bar performance?

Post by jamestaylorrecordsas » Mon Feb 20, 2023 9:01 am

"Lawyering Skills Grade was the strongest predictor of law student success. In contrast, the LSAT score was the weakest predictor of law school success. This study also found that law students who did well in their Lawyering Skills classes tended to be mastery-oriented learners, and that law students who were mastery-oriented learners were more successful in law school overall."

(Christensen, Leah M., The Power of Skills Training: A Study of Lawyering Skills Grades as the Strongest Predictor of Law School Success (Or In Other Words, It's Time For Legal Education to Get Serious About Skills Training If We Care About How Our Students Learn) (August 18, 2008). St. John's Law Review, Vol. 83, p. 795, 2009, TJSL Legal Studies Research Paper No. 1235531, NYLS Clinical Research Institute Paper No. 09/10 #27, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1235531)

"LGPA is the strongest predictor of bar exam performance, even at the early stages of matriculation. For example, a one standard deviation increase in 1L LGPA is associated with a 402 percent increase in the odds of bar passage"

(Taylor, Aaron N. and Scott, Jason M. and Jackson, Joshua, It's Not Where You Start, It's How You Finish: Predicting Law School and Bar Success (April 15, 2021). AccessLex Institute Research Paper No. 21-03, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3827402 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3827402)

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cavalier1138

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Re: Do law school grades predict bar performance?

Post by cavalier1138 » Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:51 am

The bar exam essays are also much easier than most law school exams. They tend to focus on a single discrete issue (usually with a few minor sub-issues), and you aren't graded in comparison to other test-takers.

Also, LSAT score actually has a pretty high correlation with bar passage. So if you did well on the LSAT, I'd predict you'll do fine on the bar.

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jamestaylorrecordsas

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Re: Do law school grades predict bar performance?

Post by jamestaylorrecordsas » Wed Feb 22, 2023 8:51 am

"1. The predictive power of the LSAT score, undergraduate GPA and a combination of those two measures in an "index" is about the same, both for first-year and for overall academic performance.

2. Although the differences may be small or statistically insignificant, the LSAT score is a better predictor than GPA of first-year law school performance, and GPA is a better predictor of overall law school performance. An index with a combination of LSAT score and GPA is substantially better than either LSAT score or GPA alone in predicting both first-year and overall law school performance.

3. The predictive power of any of these measures is not strong, and only the most general patterns may be discerned. Entering law students should not feel that their future academic success is either unduly limited or assured by the quality of their academic credentials."

(emphasis added by poster)
Predicting Law School Academic Performance from LSAT Scores and Undergraduate Grade Point Averages: A Comprehensive Study
Arizona State Law Journal, Vol. 35, pp. 1007-1028, Fall 2003

Above based on an analysis of twenty-seven years of admissions and academic records from Brigham Young University's J. Reuben Clark Law School (covering graduating classes 1976-2002)

22 Pages Posted: 29 Jul 2008
David A. Thomas
Brigham Young University - J. Reuben Clark Law School

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cavalier1138

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Re: Do law school grades predict bar performance?

Post by cavalier1138 » Wed Feb 22, 2023 12:55 pm

jamestaylorrecordsas wrote:
Wed Feb 22, 2023 8:51 am
"1. The predictive power of the LSAT score, undergraduate GPA and a combination of those two measures in an "index" is about the same, both for first-year and for overall academic performance.

2. Although the differences may be small or statistically insignificant, the LSAT score is a better predictor than GPA of first-year law school performance, and GPA is a better predictor of overall law school performance. An index with a combination of LSAT score and GPA is substantially better than either LSAT score or GPA alone in predicting both first-year and overall law school performance.

3. The predictive power of any of these measures is not strong, and only the most general patterns may be discerned. Entering law students should not feel that their future academic success is either unduly limited or assured by the quality of their academic credentials."

(emphasis added by poster)
Predicting Law School Academic Performance from LSAT Scores and Undergraduate Grade Point Averages: A Comprehensive Study
Arizona State Law Journal, Vol. 35, pp. 1007-1028, Fall 2003

Above based on an analysis of twenty-seven years of admissions and academic records from Brigham Young University's J. Reuben Clark Law School (covering graduating classes 1976-2002)

22 Pages Posted: 29 Jul 2008
David A. Thomas
Brigham Young University - J. Reuben Clark Law School
Yes, that's about correlation between LSAT scores and law school grades. Well done.

The OP asked about the bar exam, not their grades.

jamestaylorrecordsas

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Re: Do law school grades predict bar performance?

Post by jamestaylorrecordsas » Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:18 pm

Yes, this is closely related and relevant to the discussion. I say let's put all the information out there for the reader. Especially if it's interesting.

jamestaylorrecordsas

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Re: Do law school grades predict bar performance?

Post by jamestaylorrecordsas » Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:34 pm

"LGPA is the strongest predictor of bar exam performance, even at the early stages of matriculation. For example, a one standard deviation increase in 1L LGPA is associated with a 402 percent increase in the odds of bar passage"

(Taylor, Aaron N. and Scott, Jason M. and Jackson, Joshua, It's Not Where You Start, It's How You Finish: Predicting Law School and Bar Success (April 15, 2021). AccessLex Institute Research Paper No. 21-03, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3827402 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3827402)

Not that I want to make jokes about a poster giving an anecdote, but if you can look at a statistical study, I say that's the better information.

Just for future reference, go on SSRN and type in any question to see if a study has been done. It's amazing what you'll find. Malcolm Gladwell says SSRN is his favorite site, if it matters...

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cavalier1138

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Re: Do law school grades predict bar performance?

Post by cavalier1138 » Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:57 pm

My bad, OP. I forgot to avoid engaging with the person who's here solely for attention. I hope that most of the answers helped set you at ease.

jamestaylorrecordsas

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Re: Do law school grades predict bar performance?

Post by jamestaylorrecordsas » Wed Feb 22, 2023 3:09 pm

Me posting references to statistical studies in an attempt to answer a poster's question. If anyone finds that irritating and attention seeking, please weigh in.

KangaHC

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Re: Do law school grades predict bar performance?

Post by KangaHC » Mon Apr 03, 2023 11:43 am

I thought it was pretty helpful actually - especially the article.

Barb1461

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Re: Do law school grades predict bar performance?

Post by Barb1461 » Thu Apr 27, 2023 3:29 pm

In my case this was true. I had a lot of trouble in law school especially with writing. I graduated not at the very bottom of my class but around middle of the pack. Nothing too impressive. And sure enough I failed the bar exam. After a couple of tries, I just found out I passed. But yes I noticed that most of my friends who graduated at the top part of the class passed the bar bar exam on the first try.

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lynagitat

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Re: Do law school grades predict bar performance?

Post by lynagitat » Mon May 15, 2023 1:49 pm

Well, it was quite the opposite for me. I sailed through law school without much trouble, even acing my writing assignments. I graduated somewhere in the middle of the pack, nothing too shabby. But when it came to the dreaded bar exam, I passed it with flying colors on my first attempt :) Interestingly enough, I couldn't help but notice that some of my high-achieving classmates struggled with the exam and had to give it multiple shots. So, you see, there's no hard and fast rule about class rankings and bar exam success. It's all about individual circumstances and luck, I suppose.

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lynagitat

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Re: Do law school grades predict bar performance?

Post by lynagitat » Mon May 22, 2023 10:01 am

I hope I wasn't too tough, and I've found a few helping suggestions. While your law school grades may be average and you struggle with issue-spotting, it doesn’t mean you’re doomed for the bar exam. Improving your performance is possible with the right approach. To enhance your issue-spotting skills, practice regularly, break down facts systematically, review past exams and model answers, seek guidance from professors, join study groups, and use study aids like keepnotes.com that offer comprehensive study notes. The bar exam may involve analyzing multiple issues, but the number varies by question. By dedicating time and leveraging available resources, you can improve your chances of success. Stay determined and focused on your goal. Good luck!

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