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I'm a 3L. I have the option to pass/fail one class this semester and set a minimum grade that would go on my transcript (e.g. if I set the minimum at A and get an A, that would go on my transcript, but if I get an A- it would just say P). The class I'm considering for this is notoriously hard, with only a few students getting A's each year.

I'm currently in the top 5% of my class (I go to a T50) and right above the cutoff for summa cum laude at graduation. If I get an A- in this class, I expect my rank to drop slightly, out of the summa range. So I'm tempted to set my minimum grade at A and hope I somehow pull out an A, but if I don't, just have a P on my transcript and keep my GPA as close to 4.0 as I can get.

My issue is, would a P on my transcript look worse than an A- or B+, which would lower my GPA slightly but at least show up on my transcript as a respectable grade? Also, this is a professor I might ask for a recommendation or reference at some point (for a future clerkship, etc)--would his rec hold more weight if it showed the grade I got in his class instead of a P? I still care about my transcript because I'm clerking and thus will be applying for post-clerkship jobs with my full transcript.

Take the P instead of the A- to preserve your GPA, which matters a lot at T50 schools. You can always explain why its a P if somebody were to ask about it during an interview, but its pretty common to allow students to take one class P/F, so an interviewer should understand. If you don't get an A in the Prof's class, you shouldn't be asking him for a recommendation anyway (when I was clerking I read a lot of rec letters by people who got below an A in the author's class, and it was usually really awkward). That said, you better work your ass off to try for an A, especially if this is a class like Fed Courts, which matters to some people looking at your transcript.

If you get asked why it’s a P, don’t say it was to preserve your GPA. Say something about having a lot of things on your plate that semester and you took the option to balance your workload most effectively (or even something about you were interested in the subject for its own sake and didn’t want to worry about the grade). People will probably understand that you wanted to protect your GPA but flat out saying you did it to protect your GPA just doesn’t look good.

I’d be amazed if anyone asked you about it, honestly, but if they do, the above is my advice.

(Also, I agree that your GPA is more important than having a P on your transcript. Lots of places will look at your gpa but may not look at individual classes. And if you do well and the prof writes you a letter they’ll know how you performed even if you took the P. I don’t personally agree that you have to get an A to ask the prof for a letter, but that may reflect my own experience and my school’s curve.)