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1L spring grades are released, but ranks are not. I am trying to get a feel for where my rank may be, after the spring semester, assuming (1) the total number of students has somewhat decreased due to drop outs/fail outs, (2) many students did much better this semester, and (3) many students did worse this semester.
Fall: 3.437, top 10%
Spring: 3.489, cum. gpa 3.465
Any ideas about how factors (1), (2), and (3) affect the rank of a cum. gpa which is almost equal to a fall semester gpa?

Depends on the school...I know every % rank at my school dropped from fall to spring for the 1Ls despite losing some people (regression to the mean, maybe), but we don't have set bell curve distribution, just mandatory means.