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Got our grades back today and I ended up with a 3.95 cumulative 1L GPA at a T1 (think low-40s). I was already planning on transferring after Fall semester, but after a strong Spring I was wondering what my odds are at making it into at least one of Harvard, Yale, or Stanford. Also, if I do get into one of these schools is there any downside to going (besides cost)? For example, I will still be able to participate in OCI at all three, right?

Apply to Harvard, you have a good shot. Unlikely at Yale. They tend only to take t13 transfers with one or two non-t13 transfers. I’d still apply, hr your chances are slim. Idk about Stanford

I would apply to all 3. The downside of applying to S/Y is maybe $100 or so in extra application costs. Otherwise it's the same rec letters and app for the most part.

Regarding your chances I think we would need to know your rank to give you a better estimate. But, even then it's still going to be in the range of 50/50, better than 50/50, or worse than 50/50. H/Y/S transfers from outside of the t13/t20 is hard to predict accurately.

You'll still get to participate at OCI for all 3, and depending on your age and income may get a decent amount of need-based aid. There's no real downside to transferring if you get into one of these from a T40 school outside of cost. So it's important to consider what your goals are and why do you want to transfer (beyond just having a different name on your diploma)? For example, if you 100% know you want to do corporate work in the area where your school is there's very little upside (assuming that your current school will increase your scholarship).

Transferring is good for things like clerking, broader access to legal markets (beyond the region of your school), and potentially opening doors for unicorn jobs/academia down the road.

I wouldn't even bother applying to Yale, tbh. Their median transfer GPA is >4.0, and as was mentioned before, they generally only take from T14, with a couple of exceptions per year. Plus, Yale's application is not through LSAC, and you have to submit an additional piece of writing.

Give H a shot.