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My friend has a tad below a 3.6 at UT-Austin (the median there is 3.3 flat, she says) and wants to transfer to Boalt. I say that Boalt wants 3.8-4.0 people from low T1/T2/TTT schools, not those who want a marginal advantage at OCI. Who's right? What are her chances?

Precise chances are going to be difficult to predict, but your "friend" could definitely apply with a straight face. A better question would be why your "friend" would want to give up what s/he has at UT to start over at Boalt. The answer to that question, and how effectively s/he can communicate that to the admissions committee will probably answer your question about her chances.

Your assertion that Boalt wants 3.8-4.0 people from other schools, the assertion that Boalt does not want those who want a marginal advantage at OCI, and your "friend's" assertion that s/he wants to transfer to Boalt are not mutually exclusive. Not being a Boalt adcom myself, I'm not sure "who's right," nor why any of those things matter.

edited to remove OP quote.

3.6 seems low for Boalt IMO but def worth a shot. With an early app and strong reason to go it could happen and would certainly be worth the app fee.