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I am gunning for clerkshp and dying to note-on to LR.

I'm writing a note this semester (close to finishing the first draft) and will write another note the next semester. I might find time to do substantial research on a third note over the winter break.

if my school's LR accepts, on average, 3/8 of the submitted notes. is my chance of noting on greater than not noting on??

Assuming notes are picked at random and not based on quality:

Chance of noting on with:

One note: 38%

With two: 61%

With three: 76%

Odds go down if you submit notes into the same pool, since obviously you wind up competing against yourself.

Assuming they are picked based on quality and relevance, I doubt you'd get anywhere on #3. By that point you probably are just Doing it Wrong. Even writing a second sounds like kind of a waste...

I did not plan to submit that many notes. They told me recently that they would start selecting notes in march/ april next year, and so it's not like I can submit a note and get a response by the end of this semester.

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I know, but I suppose most, if not all, submissions are of reasonably good quality. or are they?

I've asked 2 faculty members to go over my first note and so far the comments from one have been good. lots of time for revision too.