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What do you think — yea or nay?

My (busy) group is saying that 2025 will be on par with, or possibly busier than, 2024.

Most associates billed less than 1600 for 2024 lol
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Junior comp hasnt declined Y/Y in nominal terms (heaven knows it has in real terms) since 2009. Either 2025 is the first time in 15 years that happens, or someone pushes the scale, or the special bonuses reappear.

Anonymous User wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 15, 2025 2:13 am

Junior comp hasnt declined Y/Y in nominal terms (heaven knows it has in real terms) since 2009. Either 2025 is the first time in 15 years that happens, or someone pushes the scale, or the special bonuses reappear.

This is just not true. See https://www.biglawinvestor.com/biglaw-salary-scale/. Sure, 2009 was roughly on par with the numbers for 2025 adjusting for inflation, but comp was lower (by as much as ~$15k) every year between 2010-2016. Things have fluctuated, and I would not say that someone must push the scale or offer bonuses to avoid anomaly. I would also ignore the COVID years when comp was materially higher based on wild raises and bonuses - there were a number of oddities about the legal labor market at that time that just aren't happening right now.

I'm all for raises this year, but I'm also for facts.

I said nominal terms. Please dont embarass yourself by lecturing about facts when, as now, you are wrong. The bottom of the scale hasnt declined nominally in 1.5 decades. Either 2025 breaks the streak or someone does something for associates this year.

Anonymous User wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 15, 2025 1:49 pm

I said nominal terms. Please dont embarass yourself by lecturing about facts when, as now, you are wrong. The bottom of the scale hasnt declined nominally in 1.5 decades. Either 2025 breaks the streak or someone does something for associates this year.

But it has, do your research. For example, 2nd through 7th years received less in 2019 than they did in 2018, and due to precisely the same thing we're talking about now - special bonuses. Industry-wide special bonuses weren't really a thing of the past, so I don't think it's fair for you to draw a parallel to the prior 1.5 decades. Sure, the salary and annual bonus haven't gone down, but special bonuses absolutely have come and gone.

7th years are juniors now?

Anonymous User wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 16, 2025 12:18 am

7th years are juniors now?

No, but me thinks 2nd years are.

Market feels frothy, Trump animal spirits are flowing, and my practice group is as busy as ever.

I predict that Milbank either (1) re-ups the special bonuses this year (possibly late summer) or (2) makes a midyear salary scale bump that would bake the special bonuses into the base.

Anonymous User wrote: ↑

Thu Dec 26, 2024 9:12 pm

Most associates billed less than 1600 for 2024 lol
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A dirty secret of Biglaw is that associates typically do not hit their billing targets (on average). This is true in goods times and bad, but of course not true for all associates and all practice groups.