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I know projections are difficult, but there's lots of commentary on the downturn's potential negative effect on ECVC, cap markets, and transactional lawyers. Litigation seems to still be busy and relatively unaffected by layoffs. The logic behind that makes sense. What about regulatory lawyers? I am curious about international trade specifically, but also interested in hearing how this impacts privacy, government contracts, healthcare, investigations....

Anecdotally, regulatory lawyers are more insulated against economic downturns. In fact, bad behavior heats up in a downturn, giving you more work.

Finreg attorney here. Easily hitting 2k (and turning work down), and have been seeing tons of recruiting emails for relevant/good roles lately.

Re international trade specifically: it depends. Some parts of trade really heat up when the economy is bad (e.g., AD/CVD work) but cool off in good times. If your trade work is deal-dependent, then it suffers along with other deal practices when the economy is down. Trade regulatory is a little more even-keeled with respect to the economy and depends more on executive/administrative priorities.

I'm an FDA regulatory lawyer. I personally have been pretty busy although within my group it certainly varies. I've heard anecdotally at my current and previous firm that our groups don't tend to lay people off during recessions, but obviously never say never...