In a recession, who gets laid off first? Forum

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In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Jun 03, 2022 10:04 am

Concerned incoming v20 associate. Finance practice. 3L direct hire. I know things are slowing down in my practice, and I'm a bit worried about the possibility of layoffs if we enter a serious recession. Would suck to be tossed back into the job market with no experience like many did in 08-09.

If shit hits the fan, who's first on the chopping block? Is it the incoming associates? or is it the deadwood senior associates/counsel who have no shot at partnership? Only reason I might think the latter is because the incoming associates are cheaper labor, but the flip side is that they have no experience.

Also, if it's the incoming associates, do you think 3L direct hires would be dropped before those who summered at the firm? Feel like I don't have the connections at the firm that those who summered there have, and accordingly have less job security.

Thanks

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by ExpOriental » Fri Jun 03, 2022 10:27 am

You

thisismytlsuername

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by thisismytlsuername » Fri Jun 03, 2022 10:48 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jun 03, 2022 10:04 am
Concerned incoming v20 associate. Finance practice. 3L direct hire. I know things are slowing down in my practice, and I'm a bit worried about the possibility of layoffs if we enter a serious recession. Would suck to be tossed back into the job market with no experience like many did in 08-09.

If shit hits the fan, who's first on the chopping block? Is it the incoming associates? or is it the deadwood senior associates/counsel who have no shot at partnership? Only reason I might think the latter is because the incoming associates are cheaper labor, but the flip side is that they have no experience.

Also, if it's the incoming associates, do you think 3L direct hires would be dropped before those who summered at the firm? Feel like I don't have the connections at the firm that those who summered there have, and accordingly have less job security.

Thanks
All of the above.

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Jun 03, 2022 11:28 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jun 03, 2022 10:04 am
Concerned incoming v20 associate. Finance practice. 3L direct hire. I know things are slowing down in my practice, and I'm a bit worried about the possibility of layoffs if we enter a serious recession. Would suck to be tossed back into the job market with no experience like many did in 08-09.

If shit hits the fan, who's first on the chopping block? Is it the incoming associates? or is it the deadwood senior associates/counsel who have no shot at partnership? Only reason I might think the latter is because the incoming associates are cheaper labor, but the flip side is that they have no experience.

Also, if it's the incoming associates, do you think 3L direct hires would be dropped before those who summered at the firm? Feel like I don't have the connections at the firm that those who summered there have, and accordingly have less job security.

Thanks
I would guess firms don't want to start with incoming first years, just for optics reasons. Probably second/third years that are on the low end reputation/hours wise.

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Jun 03, 2022 11:39 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jun 03, 2022 11:28 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jun 03, 2022 10:04 am
Concerned incoming v20 associate. Finance practice. 3L direct hire. I know things are slowing down in my practice, and I'm a bit worried about the possibility of layoffs if we enter a serious recession. Would suck to be tossed back into the job market with no experience like many did in 08-09.

If shit hits the fan, who's first on the chopping block? Is it the incoming associates? or is it the deadwood senior associates/counsel who have no shot at partnership? Only reason I might think the latter is because the incoming associates are cheaper labor, but the flip side is that they have no experience.

Also, if it's the incoming associates, do you think 3L direct hires would be dropped before those who summered at the firm? Feel like I don't have the connections at the firm that those who summered there have, and accordingly have less job security.

Thanks
I would guess firms don't want to start with incoming first years, just for optics reasons. Probably second/third years that are on the low end reputation/hours wise.
I know a c/o '08 (or '09?) graduate who had an offer to join Latham post law-school after their 2L summer withdrawn (i.e., "Lathamed"). Although I hope firms wouldn't do that this time around, it's certainly possible. FWIW, my V20 didn't do this and instead gave people a relatively sizable portion of their pay (which was impressive given the circumstances) to delay their start date for ~6 months. Many of those hires were not given their first choice practice group, but nonetheless had jobs.

Point is, it will be incredibly firm and recession dependent. I think the only thing to say for sure is that RX associates are probably safer than most.

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hdr

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by hdr » Fri Jun 03, 2022 11:58 am

The attorneys who get laid off are the ones who aren't billing enough. During a recession, attorneys at all levels of seniority will struggle to find work. Don't worry about a recession that may or may not happen and instead focus on doing good work and building relationships at the firm.

My guess is that incoming hires don't have as much to worry about since (a) rescinding their offers would look really bad, and (b) firms can just defer their start dates for several months if needed.

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Jun 03, 2022 12:17 pm

hdr wrote:
Fri Jun 03, 2022 11:58 am
The attorneys who get laid off are the ones who aren't billing enough. During a recession, attorneys at all levels of seniority will struggle to find work. Don't worry about a recession that may or may not happen and instead focus on doing good work and building relationships at the firm.

My guess is that incoming hires don't have as much to worry about since (a) rescinding their offers would look really bad, and (b) firms can just defer their start dates for several months if needed.
Isn't the delay approach what happened early on in the pandemic during that flash contraction? Honestly that feels so long ago I can't remember the details. I seem to recall a bunch of classes getting their start dates pushed back.

Firms learned from the layoffs (and reduced class sizes) of the late aughts that the lack of headcount was a real problem for years afterwards, because if affected the associate seniority pipeline. They'll want to avoid layoffs, not because they're concerned about the livelihoods and career prospects of their associates, but purely out of self-interest in having sufficient billers in the medium-term following a recession. They'd rather get creative with delays, bonus/pay reductions, maybe even furloughs, rather than layoffs. I can imagine people still getting let go because of specific situations (a group was already unprofitable and personnel is being drawn down, the specific individual has some sort of issue, etc.), but no big layoffs, and definitely not targeting first years.

Also, if you're incoming, try your best not to worry about a recession and layoff, because it's outside your control.

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Wild Card » Fri Jun 03, 2022 12:36 pm

ExpOriental wrote:
Fri Jun 03, 2022 10:27 am
You
RAN here.

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Res Ipsa Loquitter » Fri Jun 03, 2022 12:36 pm

V20 very unlikely to pull your offer. But if things are really slow after you start, the bottom X percentage of people in your class may be canned after one year.

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Jun 03, 2022 1:01 pm

Res Ipsa Loquitter wrote:
Fri Jun 03, 2022 12:36 pm
V20 very unlikely to pull your offer. But if things are really slow after you start, the bottom X percentage of people in your class may be canned after one year.
I think this is right -- seems from my anecdotal experience that the sweet spot for being stealthed is years 2-3 (though more senior recent laterals may also fit here) because you don't really have a skill set yet and don't have the established relationships that may save more senior people but they have some insight into your potential/work ethic.

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BrowsingTLS

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by BrowsingTLS » Fri Jun 03, 2022 3:58 pm

If a firm tries to lay you off, just say "no" or "fine but you must give me X dollars to peacefully fuck off."

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Jun 03, 2022 4:17 pm

As a general rule: first in, first out.

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Prudent_Jurist » Fri Jun 03, 2022 4:22 pm

Those who don’t meticulously review their senior’s redlines and obsess until the early morning hours over italicized commas are separated and cast into the outer darkness where there is weeping and gnashing of teeth…

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by 12YrsAnAssociate » Fri Jun 03, 2022 6:23 pm

If after a three months at a firm you can't spot the guy who's going to get laid off first, then you ARE the guy.

Anonymous User
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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Anonymous User » Fri Jun 03, 2022 8:05 pm

BrowsingTLS wrote:
Fri Jun 03, 2022 3:58 pm
If a firm tries to lay you off, just say "no" or "fine but you must give me X dollars to peacefully fuck off."
Don’t think there is any reason to not be a squeaky ass wheel… money or a cushy exit to an attractive client

Dont use the f word but get that message across forcefully…. Especially if it’s a “prestigious firm”….

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Anonymous User » Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:42 pm

Those that tried to ride the big law train and put in minimum effort last couple years based on the fact that the firm needed bodies are in for a treat because I think real reviews are back and we don’t forget

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Anonymous User » Sun Jun 05, 2022 9:03 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:42 pm
Those that tried to ride the big law train and put in minimum effort last couple years based on the fact that the firm needed bodies are in for a treat because I think real reviews are back and we don’t forget
How do you define minimum effort? What kind of hours?

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Anonymous User » Sun Jun 05, 2022 10:28 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:42 pm
Those that tried to ride the big law train and put in minimum effort last couple years based on the fact that the firm needed bodies are in for a treat because I think real reviews are back and we don’t forget
Rest assured, there is a large contingent of people who don't care that they are "in for a treat". We won because we got your money for two extra years without killing ourselves for it. Get over it.

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Res Ipsa Loquitter » Sun Jun 05, 2022 1:10 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Sun Jun 05, 2022 10:28 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:42 pm
Those that tried to ride the big law train and put in minimum effort last couple years based on the fact that the firm needed bodies are in for a treat because I think real reviews are back and we don’t forget
Rest assured, there is a large contingent of people who don't care that they are "in for a treat". We won because we got your money for two extra years without killing ourselves for it. Get over it.
You’re one of the self aware slackers. There is also a large contingent of complete idiots who believe they are brilliant, highly productive attorneys.

Anonymous User
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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Anonymous User » Sun Jun 05, 2022 5:29 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jun 03, 2022 11:39 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jun 03, 2022 11:28 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jun 03, 2022 10:04 am
Concerned incoming v20 associate. Finance practice. 3L direct hire. I know things are slowing down in my practice, and I'm a bit worried about the possibility of layoffs if we enter a serious recession. Would suck to be tossed back into the job market with no experience like many did in 08-09.

If shit hits the fan, who's first on the chopping block? Is it the incoming associates? or is it the deadwood senior associates/counsel who have no shot at partnership? Only reason I might think the latter is because the incoming associates are cheaper labor, but the flip side is that they have no experience.

Also, if it's the incoming associates, do you think 3L direct hires would be dropped before those who summered at the firm? Feel like I don't have the connections at the firm that those who summered there have, and accordingly have less job security.

Thanks
I would guess firms don't want to start with incoming first years, just for optics reasons. Probably second/third years that are on the low end reputation/hours wise.
I know a c/o '08 (or '09?) graduate who had an offer to join Latham post law-school after their 2L summer withdrawn (i.e., "Lathamed"). Although I hope firms wouldn't do that this time around, it's certainly possible. FWIW, my V20 didn't do this and instead gave people a relatively sizable portion of their pay (which was impressive given the circumstances) to delay their start date for ~6 months. Many of those hires were not given their first choice practice group, but nonetheless had jobs.

Point is, it will be incredibly firm and recession dependent. I think the only thing to say for sure is that RX associates are probably safer than most.
IMO, the fact that we still talk about Lathaming 15 years later is one of the reasons it's probably unlikely firms would try that same strategy this time. It did serious and long-lasting reputational harm.

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by ExpOriental » Sun Jun 05, 2022 5:45 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:42 pm
Those that tried to ride the big law train and put in minimum effort last couple years based on the fact that the firm needed bodies are in for a treat because I think real reviews are back and we don’t forget
This post exudes some of the dweebiest energy I've ever encountered

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Anonymous User » Sun Jun 05, 2022 8:03 pm

ExpOriental wrote:
Sun Jun 05, 2022 5:45 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:42 pm
Those that tried to ride the big law train and put in minimum effort last couple years based on the fact that the firm needed bodies are in for a treat because I think real reviews are back and we don’t forget
The irony

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Anonymous User » Sun Jun 05, 2022 9:02 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
Sun Jun 05, 2022 5:29 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jun 03, 2022 11:39 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jun 03, 2022 11:28 am
Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jun 03, 2022 10:04 am
Concerned incoming v20 associate. Finance practice. 3L direct hire. I know things are slowing down in my practice, and I'm a bit worried about the possibility of layoffs if we enter a serious recession. Would suck to be tossed back into the job market with no experience like many did in 08-09.

If shit hits the fan, who's first on the chopping block? Is it the incoming associates? or is it the deadwood senior associates/counsel who have no shot at partnership? Only reason I might think the latter is because the incoming associates are cheaper labor, but the flip side is that they have no experience.

Also, if it's the incoming associates, do you think 3L direct hires would be dropped before those who summered at the firm? Feel like I don't have the connections at the firm that those who summered there have, and accordingly have less job security.

Thanks
I would guess firms don't want to start with incoming first years, just for optics reasons. Probably second/third years that are on the low end reputation/hours wise.
I know a c/o '08 (or '09?) graduate who had an offer to join Latham post law-school after their 2L summer withdrawn (i.e., "Lathamed"). Although I hope firms wouldn't do that this time around, it's certainly possible. FWIW, my V20 didn't do this and instead gave people a relatively sizable portion of their pay (which was impressive given the circumstances) to delay their start date for ~6 months. Many of those hires were not given their first choice practice group, but nonetheless had jobs.

Point is, it will be incredibly firm and recession dependent. I think the only thing to say for sure is that RX associates are probably safer than most.
IMO, the fact that we still talk about Lathaming 15 years later is one of the reasons it's probably unlikely firms would try that same strategy this time. It did serious and long-lasting reputational harm.
I hope you’re right - but the fact that they came back from it cuts the other way. LW is one of, if not the, most sought after firm(s) in non-NY markets and especially CA…
Last edited by Anonymous User on Mon Jun 06, 2022 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

1styearlateral

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by 1styearlateral » Mon Jun 06, 2022 12:09 am

Anonymous User wrote:
Fri Jun 03, 2022 4:17 pm
As a general rule: first in, first out.
Pretty sure it’s last in, first out.

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Re: In a recession, who gets laid off first?

Post by Anonymous User » Mon Jun 06, 2022 7:09 am

ExpOriental wrote:
Sun Jun 05, 2022 5:45 pm
Anonymous User wrote:
Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:42 pm
Those that tried to ride the big law train and put in minimum effort last couple years based on the fact that the firm needed bodies are in for a treat because I think real reviews are back and we don’t forget
This post exudes some of the dweebiest energy I've ever encountered
It's kind of breathtaking.

edit: whoops, accidental anon, this is nixy

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